Suburban gains: Demographic Change or Newly Liberal Whites

[Torie]

It is not socially acceptable to admit you are a Trump voter in white gentry circles, and frankly I don't know anyone in that cohort who admits to supporting Trump - none, zero, zip. Part of that is that how the white gentry has made their money has changed over the years, and who butters their bread, and another part of the equation is that their former "enemies" are no longer salient (labor unions are dead), and part of it is style. Who in their right mind would want to spend an evening with Trump?

[Torie]

This is a fascinating thread, that I have now taken the time to read. Thank you to those who put so much work in it.

My instinct is that the structural changes in the economy have a lot to do with it. High volume industrial manufacturing has declined and the global economy has largely killed off private sector labor unions, so the labor management divide no longer has much salience, high paying jobs are now much more oriented to processing information, and the Democratic Party has ceased to represent a threat to the standard of living of the white gentry. Also, big cities becoming desirable places to live, and the drastic decline of crime there, has I think made a big difference. To the extent these changes continue to evolve in perhaps other directions (say city crime zooming back up), or the Democratic party becomes more redistributionist, the Pub party abandoning most of its social conservatism, or the Dem Party becoming more  protectionist, it will be interesting to see if these political trends hold up.