Suburban gains: Demographic Change or Newly Liberal Whites
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  Suburban gains: Demographic Change or Newly Liberal Whites
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Author Topic: Suburban gains: Demographic Change or Newly Liberal Whites  (Read 2707 times)
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« on: October 23, 2020, 06:56:59 PM »
« edited: October 23, 2020, 09:32:45 PM by Blairite »

Del Taichi recently made the point that:
Quote
Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places.  

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Purple heart Romney-Clinton counties Purple heart no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

Naturally, minority voters are the base of the Democratic party, particularly in southern metros like Atlanta. However, it is interesting to consider whether the county map of these big metro areas is shifting because of the white vote or the suburbanization of minorities. It's also interesting to address whether or not we should talk about shifts in the political landscape of North Fulton and Cobb in the same way we talk about shifts in Douglass and Henry.

This raises three questions:

1. How much of the 2008-2016 swing in big metro areas comes from increased minority populations and how much comes from whites flipping parties?

2. If whites are flipping parties in big metro areas, is this swing concentrated in favored quarters (like the North Atlanta suburbs) or can you see it in more downscale parts of the metro as well?

3. Regardless of swings between elections, do white voters in favored quarters consistently vote left of white voters in other parts of metro areas?

To answer these, I decided to dig into DRA data for four major metro areas with well-defined favored quarters: Dallas-Fort Worth (North Dallas/Collin/Southeast Denton), Houston (West Houston/Energy Corridor/North Fort Bend), Atlanta (North Fulton/North DeKalb/East Cobb/Forsyth), and Chicago (Streeterville to the North Shore). If I wanted to add more data, I would also take a look at Philadelphia, Seattle, and Washington. In each of these four metro areas, I determined the white vote in the 2008 election and the 2016 election in both the favored quarter and the rest of the metro area. This is what I got:

Dallas-Fort Worth
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+58
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+66
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+30
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+52

Houston
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+66
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+80
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+34
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+80

Atlanta
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+34
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+36
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+8
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+30

Chicago
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: D+48
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: D+22
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: D+60
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: D+14

After you get past the topline numbers (North Atlanta whites are probably going to vote for Biden even though sunbelt whites are absurdly conservative--~80% of Houston whites voting for McCain--wtf!), you notice a very consistent pattern: favored quarter whites ALWAYS vote left of the rest of the metro, metropolitan whites really did swing towards Hillary Clinton, and these swings have mostly happened in favored quarters. In 2008, the average favored quarter white voter was 13 points left of the rest of the metro, while in 2016, the average favored quarter white voter was 34 points left of the rest of the metro.

Metro-by-metro, white swings (2008-2016) were:

Dallas-Fort Worth
Favored quarter whites: D+28
Rest of metro whites: D+14
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+14

Houston
Favored quarter whites: D+32
Rest of metro whites: D+0 (!)
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+32

Atlanta
Favored quarter whites: D+25
Rest of metro whites: D+7
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+18

Chicago
Favored quarter whites: D+12
Rest of metro whites: R+8
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+20

What's the big takeaway?

First, there's massive internal variation in the white vote across big metro areas. Second, less upscale Romney-Clinton areas (like Henry County, GA) are moving left overwhelmingly because of the suburbanization of minorities. However, upscale wedges of metros (like the GA-400 corridor) are mostly moving left because of shifts in the white vote (some combination of the mythical Romney-Clinton voters, generational turnover, and coastal transplants). If these trends continue into the 2020s, we should be unsurprised by favored quarter counties like Collin, TX or Orange, CA voting to the left of non-favored quarter counties like Tarrant, TX or San Bernardino, CA.

So to address the original Del Taichi quote that prompted all this, North Atlanta is a Romney-Clinton place driven by Romney-Clinton voters while Henry, GA is a Romney-Clinton place driven by demographic change.

Hopefully you all find this interesting. I hope to update this after the 2020 election.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 07:02:07 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 07:20:48 PM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

Probably a bit inaccurate, I doubt white votes in rest of Metro were 90% R, that seems a bit too far even for a deep southern city but good point. How did you estimate white vote? Im guessing you probably overestimated hispanic vote share ?   Also for atlanta I would exclude the actual precincts with the 400 road itself as those are quite low income IIRC.

The rest of metro for Atlanta 08 seems a bit too D too IMO.


For Chicago I feel like your definition is far too narrow for the "favored" quarter as there are plenty of more rich areas like most of Dupage or northern Will etc.


Still thanks for the post .

Another interesting test for Georgia(is it Demographics vs white vote swing) is to check the 2016  senate(yes senate) vs 2008 presidential within Atlanta. If Barksdale did worse than Obama it was white vote swing but if he did better it was demographical swing. For example East cobb was +30 Mccain but +40 Johnny Iskason. On the other hand all Gwinett was McCain +10 and Iskason +4.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 07:11:05 PM »

Great analysis - love that it's data driven. This is consistent with the trends I've been observing in metro ATL precincts in the GA-400 corridor. There are an astonishing number of precincts in East Cobb, North Fulton, South Forsyth that gave Romney 75%+ where Kemp didn't even break 60%. While pop growth and demographic growth explain some of it, the majority of the shift mathematically has to be from white voters shifting D.

Del Taichi recently made the point that:
Quote
Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Purple heart Romney-Clinton counties Purple heart no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

Naturally, minority voters are the base of the Democratic party, particularly in southern metros like Atlanta. However, it is interesting to consider whether the county map of these big metro areas is shifting because of the white vote or the suburbanization of minorities. It's also interesting to address whether or not we should talk about shifts in the political landscape of North Fulton and Cobb in the same way we talk about shifts in Douglass and Henry.

This raises three questions:

1. How much of the 2008-2016 swing in big metro areas comes from increased minority populations and how much comes from whites flipping parties?

2. If whites are flipping parties in big metro areas, is this swing concentrated in favored quarters (like the North Atlanta suburbs) or can you see it in more downscale parts of the metro as well?

3. Regardless of swings between elections, do white voters in favored quarters consistently vote left of white voters in other parts of metro areas?

To answer these, I decided to dig into DRA data for four major metro areas with well-defined favored quarters: Dallas-Fort Worth (North Dallas/Collin/Southeast Denton), Houston (West Houston/Energy Corridor/North Fort Bend), Atlanta (North Fulton/North DeKalb/East Cobb/Forsyth), and Chicago (Streeterville to the North Shore). If I wanted to add more data, I would also take a look at Philadelphia, Seattle, and Washington. In each of these four metro areas, I determined the white vote in the 2008 election and the 2016 election in both the favored quarter and the rest of the metro area. This is what I got:

Dallas-Fort Worth
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+58
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+66
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+30
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+52

Houston
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+66
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+80
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+34
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+80

Atlanta
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+34
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+36
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+8
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+30

Chicago
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: D+48
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: D+22
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: D+60
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: D+14

After you get past the topline numbers (North Atlanta whites are probably going to vote for Biden even though sunbelt whites are absurdly conservative--~80% of Houston whites voting for McCain--wtf!), you notice a very consistent pattern: favored quarter whites ALWAYS vote left of the rest of the metro, metropolitan whites really did swing towards Hillary Clinton, and these swings have mostly happened in favored quarters. In 2008, the average favored quarter white voter was 13 points left of the rest of the metro, while in 2016, the average favored quarter white voter was 34 points left of the rest of the metro.

Metro-by-metro, white swings (2008-2016) were:

Dallas-Fort Worth
Favored quarter whites: D+28
Rest of metro whites: D+14
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+14

Houston
Favored quarter whites: D+32
Rest of metro whites: D+0 (!)
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+32

Atlanta
Favored quarter whites: D+25
Rest of metro whites: D+7
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+18

Chicago
Favored quarter whites: D+12
Rest of metro whites: R+8
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+20

What's the big takeaway?

First, there's massive internal variation in the white vote across big metro areas. Second, less upscale Romney-Clinton areas (like Henry County, GA) are moving left overwhelmingly because of the suburbanization of minorities. However, upscale wedges of metros (like the GA-400 corridor) are mostly moving left because of shifts in the white vote (some combination of the mythical Romney-Clinton voters, generational turnover, and coastal transplants). If these trends continue into the 2020s, we should be unsurprised by favored quarter counties like Collin, TX or San Bernardino, CA voting to the left of non-favored quarter counties like Tarrant, TX or Orange, CA.

So to address the original Del Taichi quote that prompted all this, North Atlanta is a Romney-Clinton place driven by Romney-Clinton voters while Henry, GA is a Romney-Clinton place driven by demographic change.

Hopefully you all find this interesting. I hope to update this after the 2020 election.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 08:35:35 PM »

this is sort of off topic but I've noticed that in a lot of wealthy republican families - at least one of the kids is a lefty. But does that actually change the electorate in rich republican areas? So for instance if you have a republican husband and wife in north fulton with liberal kids - chances are there kids don't live in North Fulton, they probably live in five points (if they live in metro atl) or out of state.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 09:29:28 PM »

What is your definition of "favored quarter" since you place San Bernardino in it but not Orange County?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 09:41:42 PM »

What is your definition of "favored quarter" since you place San Bernardino in it but not Orange County?

He said SB is not a favored quarter and neither is Tarrant.Parts of Tarrant are favored quarter although most of the swing in Tarrant from 2008 >2016 is mostly Demographical and the white vote in Tarrant was probably pretty neutral.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 09:49:15 PM »

What is your definition of "favored quarter" since you place San Bernardino in it but not Orange County?

He said SB is not a favored quarter and neither is Tarrant.Parts of Tarrant are favored quarter although most of the swing in Tarrant from 2008 >2016 is mostly Demographical and the white vote in Tarrant was probably pretty neutral.

Actually I mistyped that and edited my original post. But you're correct here.

To be fair, Orange isn't the best example of a favored quarter because greater Los Angeles (and greater New York) are too big to fit such a topology, and if you had to pick a favored quarter in LA it would be from Downtown going west towards Malibu.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 09:55:53 PM »

Probably a bit inaccurate, I doubt white votes in rest of Metro were 90% R, that seems a bit too far even for a deep southern city but good point. How did you estimate white vote? Im guessing you probably overestimated hispanic vote share ?
The rest of metro for Atlanta 08 seems a bit too D too IMO.

I could be off by a few points, but the error should apply to the swings equally and that's the really useful data. Basically I took the minority CVAP percentage of the DRA region, adjusted it for turnout and margin based on that year's exit polls, and subtracted it out of the Dem/GOP vote share with the remaining voted being the raw white votes. I did take into account TX Hispanic vote share but I was looking at statewide data and Harris could be different.

Also for atlanta I would exclude the actual precincts with the 400 road itself as those are quite low income IIRC.

For Chicago I feel like your definition is far too narrow for the "favored" quarter as there are plenty of more rich areas like most of Dupage or northern Will etc.

You'd be right if I'm going specifically for rich and educated precincts, but my thesis here is that regardless of these other demographic indicators, whites in these "favored quarters"--which correspond to very specific wedges of their cities--vote left of other whites. I'd speculate it's because these areas are where most transplants go, they're where most Class A office space (and the corresponding jobs) are, and they're culturally more liberal--which encourages people on the fence to go a specific direction.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 10:02:08 PM »

What is your definition of "favored quarter"

Favored quarters are basically the wedge of a city radiating out from it's core that's the wealthiest. Usually one side of Downtown had the rich people to start with so "big ticket" growth all went that direction and employment centers followed. Today, they are usually places where the Fortune 500s, out of state transplants, and cultural attractions end up. For example, in Atlanta, the favored quarter goes north of Downtown which is why you have all the secondary CBDs in a line (Midtown, Buckhead, Perimeter Center, increasingly Alpharetta) going that way while you don't see the same development in other directions. The same applies to Philadelphia going west (Downtown, University City, King of Prussia/Radnor) or Houston going west (Downtown, West Loop neighborhoods, Uptown, Energy Corridor), etc. You know them when you see them.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 10:05:00 PM »

Another interesting test for Georgia(is it Demographics vs white vote swing) is to check the 2016  senate(yes senate) vs 2008 presidential within Atlanta. If Barksdale did worse than Obama it was white vote swing but if he did better it was demographical swing. For example East cobb was +30 Mccain but +40 Johnny Iskason. On the other hand all Gwinett was McCain +10 and Iskason +4.

That's very interesting, and it basically reinforces my favored quarter idea. Gwinnett clearly lies outside it despite it being a broadly upscale (and diverse) county and it's shift being attributable to demographic change (in a way that doesn't apply to North Fulton, North DeKalb, East Cobb, and South Forsyth) is another strong data point in favor of this idea.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 10:08:05 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 10:47:14 PM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

What is your definition of "favored quarter"

Favored quarters are basically the wedge of a city radiating out from it's core that's the wealthiest. Usually one side of Downtown had the rich people to start with so "big ticket" growth all went that direction and employment centers followed. Today, they are usually places where the Fortune 500s, out of state transplants, and cultural attractions end up. For example, in Atlanta, the favored quarter goes north of Downtown which is why you have all the secondary CBDs in a line (Midtown, Buckhead, Perimeter Center, increasingly Alpharetta) going that way while you don't see the same development in other directions. The same applies to Philadelphia going west (Downtown, University City, King of Prussia/Radnor) or Houston going west (Downtown, West Loop neighborhoods, Uptown, Energy Corridor), etc. You know them when you see them.
The best example to use here would be Charlotte NC btw as that is literally a wedge. Surprised you forgot to mention that one, infact NC is an interesting state in general to do this as you can check all 4 big cities for their obvious UMC quarter and the advantage is you still get the very conservative southern parts outside of Wake county but you also have lower Hispanic population which can throw off your numbers quite a bit.

 I don't think you should have done Chicago really IMO, there are just far too many UMC areas within the Chicago metro and don't forget Obama 08 did have a boost in Chicago metro which kept areas like Dupage barely swinging D from 2008 to 2016. I might have considered looking at Will County within chicago as thats a more interesting place IMO or look at Southern Lake County vs Northern.  The industrial cities in the north kept the vote pretty close in 08.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 11:02:19 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 11:32:36 PM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »



Here we go for Portland to see an area without any major demographical trends.

Basically Clackamas county Oregon is a barely D trending suburban county of Portland in the SE. With the exception of Happy Valley in the east it can generally be characterized by a dividing line between West of the River and East of the River. West are the richer areas and East is the working class areas.

We can look at the 2 cities of West Linn and Oregon city which basically show the divide the best. Both places are near equally white being 88% and 90% CVAP so thats nice to see.

West Linn went from Obama +20 in 08 to Clinton +25, while Oregon City started as Obama +9 to Clinton +0.  Reminder these are 2 demographically equivalent cities separated by a simple river. As expected the slight demographical difference is Oregon city has a few more Hispanics while West Linn has a few more Asians .
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2020, 12:43:51 AM »

This is anecdotal, so take it with a grain of salt, but at least in my experience I've seen a massive swing in these affluent white Romney voting types. Back in the day, being a Democrat was sort of viewed as quaint or maybe even admirably idealistic, but it was generally accepted that voting for Republicans was the "responsible" thing to do. Now, though, saying that you're a Trump supporter will make those people think you're an idiot, and even saying that you're a Republican will raise some eyebrows, so a lot of people are a lot less vocal about their beliefs outside their immediate family. Buckhead-type whites really have never wanted to be lumped in with rural Georgian whites, who they often perceive as unintelligent and backwards, and for better or worse Trump has tied himself to that group of people.

Also, their children are in general pretty liberal, especially the women.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2020, 09:26:24 AM »

Not much to add, but this is very good stuff Blairite.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2020, 11:56:34 AM »

I suspect the favored quarter voting trends are also highly correlated with the share of college-educated whites. In metro ATL, these areas (East Cobb, North Fulton, South Forsyth) are also widely considered to have the top public schools in the state, and so they get a disproportionate share of out-of-state transplants / metro relocators who place high priority on the quality of the schools - a group within which college-educated whites are overrepresented.

This is anecdotal, so take it with a grain of salt, but at least in my experience I've seen a massive swing in these affluent white Romney voting types. Back in the day, being a Democrat was sort of viewed as quaint or maybe even admirably idealistic, but it was generally accepted that voting for Republicans was the "responsible" thing to do. Now, though, saying that you're a Trump supporter will make those people think you're an idiot, and even saying that you're a Republican will raise some eyebrows, so a lot of people are a lot less vocal about their beliefs outside their immediate family. Buckhead-type whites really have never wanted to be lumped in with rural Georgian whites, who they often perceive as unintelligent and backwards, and for better or worse Trump has tied himself to that group of people.

Also, their children are in general pretty liberal, especially the women.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2020, 11:57:28 AM »

Del Taichi recently made the point that:
Quote
Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places.  

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Purple heart Romney-Clinton counties Purple heart no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

Naturally, minority voters are the base of the Democratic party, particularly in southern metros like Atlanta. However, it is interesting to consider whether the county map of these big metro areas is shifting because of the white vote or the suburbanization of minorities. It's also interesting to address whether or not we should talk about shifts in the political landscape of North Fulton and Cobb in the same way we talk about shifts in Douglass and Henry.

This raises three questions:

1. How much of the 2008-2016 swing in big metro areas comes from increased minority populations and how much comes from whites flipping parties?

2. If whites are flipping parties in big metro areas, is this swing concentrated in favored quarters (like the North Atlanta suburbs) or can you see it in more downscale parts of the metro as well?

3. Regardless of swings between elections, do white voters in favored quarters consistently vote left of white voters in other parts of metro areas?

To answer these, I decided to dig into DRA data for four major metro areas with well-defined favored quarters: Dallas-Fort Worth (North Dallas/Collin/Southeast Denton), Houston (West Houston/Energy Corridor/North Fort Bend), Atlanta (North Fulton/North DeKalb/East Cobb/Forsyth), and Chicago (Streeterville to the North Shore). If I wanted to add more data, I would also take a look at Philadelphia, Seattle, and Washington. In each of these four metro areas, I determined the white vote in the 2008 election and the 2016 election in both the favored quarter and the rest of the metro area. This is what I got:

Dallas-Fort Worth
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+58
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+66
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+30
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+52

Houston
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+66
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+80
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+34
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+80

Atlanta
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+34
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+36
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+8
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+30

Chicago
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: D+48
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: D+22
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: D+60
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: D+14

After you get past the topline numbers (North Atlanta whites are probably going to vote for Biden even though sunbelt whites are absurdly conservative--~80% of Houston whites voting for McCain--wtf!), you notice a very consistent pattern: favored quarter whites ALWAYS vote left of the rest of the metro, metropolitan whites really did swing towards Hillary Clinton, and these swings have mostly happened in favored quarters. In 2008, the average favored quarter white voter was 13 points left of the rest of the metro, while in 2016, the average favored quarter white voter was 34 points left of the rest of the metro.

Metro-by-metro, white swings (2008-2016) were:

Dallas-Fort Worth
Favored quarter whites: D+28
Rest of metro whites: D+14
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+14

Houston
Favored quarter whites: D+32
Rest of metro whites: D+0 (!)
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+32

Atlanta
Favored quarter whites: D+25
Rest of metro whites: D+7
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+18

Chicago
Favored quarter whites: D+12
Rest of metro whites: R+8
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+20

What's the big takeaway?

First, there's massive internal variation in the white vote across big metro areas. Second, less upscale Romney-Clinton areas (like Henry County, GA) are moving left overwhelmingly because of the suburbanization of minorities. However, upscale wedges of metros (like the GA-400 corridor) are mostly moving left because of shifts in the white vote (some combination of the mythical Romney-Clinton voters, generational turnover, and coastal transplants). If these trends continue into the 2020s, we should be unsurprised by favored quarter counties like Collin, TX or Orange, CA voting to the left of non-favored quarter counties like Tarrant, TX or San Bernardino, CA.

So to address the original Del Taichi quote that prompted all this, North Atlanta is a Romney-Clinton place driven by Romney-Clinton voters while Henry, GA is a Romney-Clinton place driven by demographic change.

Hopefully you all find this interesting. I hope to update this after the 2020 election.

This is really interesting stuff thanks, sorry if this has already been asked but is the significantly larger swing in Dallas compared to "rest of metro" attributable to a greater younger of young white transplants? Alternatively I've heard that there's been a significant degree of white flight from Dallas so maybe it's the result of conservative whites being the ones that are more likely to leave.
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2020, 12:12:30 PM »

TLDR. What do you think iris?
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2020, 12:13:18 PM »

It is not socially acceptable to admit you are a Trump voter in white gentry circles, and frankly I don't know anyone in that cohort who admits to supporting Trump - none, zero, zip. Part of that is that how the white gentry has made their money has changed over the years, and who butters their bread, and another part of the equation is that their former "enemies" are no longer salient (labor unions are dead), and part of it is style. Who in their right mind would want to spend an evening with Trump?
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2020, 12:17:21 PM »

OP, would you mind providing maps for each of these "favored quarter" regions? I have some quibbles with your Chicago-area definitions, but I'll withhold them until I know exactly which parts of the city (including parts of the city is one such issue)/suburbs you're referring to.

Interesting stuff nonetheless, though.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2020, 01:28:39 PM »

This is really interesting stuff thanks, sorry if this has already been asked but is the significantly larger swing in Dallas compared to "rest of metro" attributable to a greater younger of young white transplants? Alternatively I've heard that there's been a significant degree of white flight from Dallas so maybe it's the result of conservative whites being the ones that are more likely to leave.

Honestly, I'm not quite sure (although the biggest relative swing is actually in Houston. I'd speculate it might have to do with the sectors people work in. Dallas is more tech and finance heavy compared to the others.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2020, 01:40:08 PM »

OP, would you mind providing maps for each of these "favored quarter" regions? I have some quibbles with your Chicago-area definitions, but I'll withhold them until I know exactly which parts of the city (including parts of the city is one such issue)/suburbs you're referring to.

Sure.

Dallas:


Houston:


Atlanta:


Chicago: (Indiana suburbs also calculated in)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2020, 01:49:51 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2020, 04:54:39 PM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

Chicago UMC part definitely ends before Waukegan/North Chicago which are more post-industrial cities that have kept their poplation up due to the replacements with Hispanics.
I would say extend a straight West from New Trier to Barrington instead.Barrington is the only red Town in NW Cook.

I would have also excluded the town of Denton IMO from the Dallas metro.
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Sol
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2020, 06:50:25 PM »

...Alief is not favored quarter.
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Tiger08
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2020, 10:08:12 PM »

Another option: Are some of these suburban voters right of center people who have a deep personal antipathy to Trump but would be fine with voting for most other Republicans? Examples of this type of person may be people like George W. Bush or the writer David French (neither have endorsed Biden but neither one is voting for Trump)?

Also, question I've had for a long time: When the media talks about Rockefeller Republican types, some of the recent blue state R governors, maybe Brian Fitzpatrick, etc. as "fiscally conservative, socially moderate," what is the difference between "socially moderate" and "socially liberal/progressive?" Why do people not use the latter?

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2020, 10:40:41 PM »

Another option: Are some of these suburban voters right of center people who have a deep personal antipathy to Trump but would be fine with voting for most other Republicans? Examples of this type of person may be people like George W. Bush or the writer David French (neither have endorsed Biden but neither one is voting for Trump)?

Also, question I've had for a long time: When the media talks about Rockefeller Republican types, some of the recent blue state R governors, maybe Brian Fitzpatrick, etc. as "fiscally conservative, socially moderate," what is the difference between "socially moderate" and "socially liberal/progressive?" Why do people not use the latter?


I think there are more people like this than we think. People who abhor Trump's personality but like having low taxes and are skeptical of a Green New Deal/SJW culture.
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