TX-21 - WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth (R): Roy +5

[VAR]

Oct. 11-12, 412 LV

Roy (R-inc) 47%
Davis (D) 42%
Other 3%
Undecided 8%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/522945-in-partisan-slugfest-can-chip-roy-overcome-trump-troubles?rnd=1603814930

[Gracile]

The presidential data (which apparently shows a close race but conveniently doesn't give actual numbers) makes me wonder if Roy isn't actually outperforming Trump, but more him matching Trump's raw number and Davis just has a lower share compared to Biden due to name recognition (i.e. if the presidential result is tied at 47-47 compared to 47-42 in favor of Roy).

[Mr.Phips]

The presidential data (which apparently shows a close race but conveniently doesn't give actual numbers) makes me wonder if Roy isn't actually outperforming Trump, but more him matching Trump's raw number and Davis just has a lower share compared to Biden due to name recognition (i.e. if the presidential result is tied at 47-47 compared to 47-42 in favor of Roy).

That is what it looks like to me.  I expect very little ticket splitting anywhere this election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So following the five point rule about internals this is a tie.