Black Philadelphia voters - HIT Strategies: Trump wins 11% of Black men, 3% of Black women

[TheLaRocca]

So put together Trump probably gets like 5% or less, given black women vote at higher rates.

And the black vote is overwhelmingly older then pollsters think. That’s why Bernie was supposed to be leading with blacks and getting 25% of them in SC but he landed on 14%.

Trump def has gained with black men 18-30 but that’s really the only group (black women outgote black men 70-30) so yeah I’m guessing trump does 2% roughly better in black areas of Philly.

Most of it’s a dead cat bounce and due to the fact democrats simply have reached a limit
With blacks. But in the future it could be a problem for the democrats.

[TheLaRocca]

this is only like 7% to 8% or so

Less then that considering black women out vote Black men heavily and the black electorate skews older then the white electorate (see Biden’s complete dominance over Bernie).

But that’s still an improvement from 2016. Trump got 1-2% in black urban districts this time I expect 3-4%.

[TheLaRocca]

this is only like 7% to 8% or so

Less then that considering black women out vote Black men heavily and the black electorate skews older then the white electorate (see Biden’s complete dominance over Bernie).

But that’s still an improvement from 2016. Trump got 1-2% in black urban districts this time I expect 3-4%.

% improvement, but I expect black turnout to be better in general then 2016.

Yeah exacley. Black support for the GOP is much lower then exit polls say.

[TheLaRocca]

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.

Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.


I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.

Based on precinct results he got 4-5% of the black vote. I’m guessing this time he gets 6 or 7.

[TheLaRocca]

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.

Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.


I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.

Based on precinct results he got 4-5% of the black vote. I’m guessing this time he gets 6 or 7.

I buy the exit polls because it seems quite plausible that black people in majority white communities vote differently than those in majority black communities do.

majority white communities (in the south) the dem vote is correlated with black support.