GA, IA, MI - Opinion Insight (R): Biden +4, Biden +2, Biden +9

[Alben Barkley]

Imagine Biden wins with this map:

[Alben Barkley]

This is an R internal? How the hell did it get released? In any case, it calls for a certain quote:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Glad to see new users are already learning the ropes.

[Alben Barkley]

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

[Alben Barkley]

Why would a Republican pollster doing this as an internal release it?!

Sounding the alarm?

Otherwise IDK.

[Alben Barkley]

GA flipped in 538 forecast:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/georgia/

[Alben Barkley]

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

Michigan polling overstates Democrats (as does Wisconsin and Minnesota).

GA/MI/WI will vote similar

And your evidence for this is...

It did in 2016? Well it didn't in 2018, 2014, or 2012. And even in 2016, most of that came down to undecideds breaking for Trump, and there aren't nearly as many this time to do that.

[Alben Barkley]

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

There really is no rhyme or reason to who is under-polled and why. Bill Clinton underperformed his polls in 1996.