GA, IA, MI - Opinion Insight (R): Biden +4, Biden +2, Biden +9
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  GA, IA, MI - Opinion Insight (R): Biden +4, Biden +2, Biden +9
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Author Topic: GA, IA, MI - Opinion Insight (R): Biden +4, Biden +2, Biden +9  (Read 3110 times)
Hammy
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« Reply #25 on: October 23, 2020, 03:01:08 PM »

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #26 on: October 23, 2020, 03:02:22 PM »

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

There really is no rhyme or reason to who is under-polled and why. Bill Clinton underperformed his polls in 1996.
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Hammy
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« Reply #27 on: October 23, 2020, 03:12:50 PM »

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

There really is no rhyme or reason to who is under-polled and why. Bill Clinton underperformed his polls in 1996.

Just stating an observation I've made over two decades of following politics and polling.
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Xing
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« Reply #28 on: October 23, 2020, 03:14:11 PM »

Yeah, but muh Landmark poll, so this one doesn't matter. Titanium Tilt R.
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« Reply #29 on: October 23, 2020, 03:26:29 PM »

I love how the Landmark poll came out an hour after this one.

Either the race is Biden+4 or Trump +4. No in-between, apparently.

In 10 days, we'll get to see what separates the good pollsters from the mediocre ones
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Hammy
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« Reply #30 on: October 23, 2020, 03:37:51 PM »

I love how the Landmark poll came out an hour after this one.

Either the race is Biden+4 or Trump +4. No in-between, apparently.

In 10 days, we'll get to see what separates the good pollsters from the mediocre ones

I see the same discussion with computer modeling on weather forums I go on, where you have a split of a storm going one way and another has it going the other. But the answer is not always splitting the difference--some have a better grasp on the environment than others.

Though the Senate numbers certainly call Landmark's result into question.
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Buzz
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« Reply #31 on: October 23, 2020, 03:39:22 PM »

I love how the Landmark poll came out an hour after this one.

Either the race is Biden+4 or Trump +4. No in-between, apparently.

In 10 days, we'll get to see what separates the good pollsters from the mediocre ones

I see the same discussion with computer modeling on weather forums I go on, where you have a split of a storm going one way and another has it going the other. But the answer is not always splitting the difference--some have a better grasp on the environment than others.

Though the Senate numbers certainly call Landmark's result into question.
Are you on southernwx?
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Hammy
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« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2020, 03:40:42 PM »

I love how the Landmark poll came out an hour after this one.

Either the race is Biden+4 or Trump +4. No in-between, apparently.

In 10 days, we'll get to see what separates the good pollsters from the mediocre ones

I see the same discussion with computer modeling on weather forums I go on, where you have a split of a storm going one way and another has it going the other. But the answer is not always splitting the difference--some have a better grasp on the environment than others.

Though the Senate numbers certainly call Landmark's result into question.
Are you on southernwx?

Storm2k--I follow tropical weather mostly, though I've heard of it.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #33 on: October 23, 2020, 04:13:12 PM »

Holy sh!t
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Asta
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« Reply #34 on: October 23, 2020, 04:17:17 PM »

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

There really is no rhyme or reason to who is under-polled and why. Bill Clinton underperformed his polls in 1996.

Just stating an observation I've made over two decades of following politics and polling.

Nate Silver said the track record on incumbents/challenger outperforming their poll is mixed. It's pretty much a wash. This permeates not just through presidential race but in other races as well.
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Malarkey Decider
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« Reply #35 on: October 23, 2020, 04:20:22 PM »

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

So your sample size is..... 2?
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Hammy
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« Reply #36 on: October 23, 2020, 04:24:30 PM »

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

So your sample size is..... 2?

Not going to get much more than that for something like this unless we start seeing presidents lose reelection on a regular basis.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #37 on: October 23, 2020, 04:44:56 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 05:18:43 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

The pollster hasn't actually compiled results with leaners, so I did it.

For the American Action Forum (R)
800 likely voters in each poll (except where otherwise specified), MoE: 3.46% for each poll
First Wave August 30 - September 2

GA
https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/georgia-policy-priorities-and-the-election/

Biden +1%

Biden 47%
Trump 46%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 0% (but some voters)
Will not vote/will not vote for President 0% (but some voters)
Hard Undecided 4%

https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/georgia-policy-priorities-and-the-election-october-update/

October 12-15
801 likely voters

Biden +3%

Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Someone else/other candidate 3%
Will not/did not vote/vote for President 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided/refused 4%

IA
https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/iowa-policy-priorities-and-the-election/

Trump +3%

Trump 51%
Biden 43%
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 1%
Hard undecided 2%

https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/iowa-policy-priorities-and-the-election-october-update/

October 5-8
Biden +2%

Biden 47% (+4)
Trump 46% (-5)
One of the other candidates 2%
Kanye West 1%
Hard undecided/refused 4%

MI
https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/michigan-policy-priorities-and-the-election/

802 likely voters
Biden +6%

Biden 51%
Trump 44%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Will not vote/will not vote for president 0% (but one voter)
Hard undecided 3%

https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/michigan-policy-priorities-and-the-election-october-update/

October 3-6
Biden +8%

Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 44% (-1)
Other 2%
Undecided 3% (n/c)
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Badger
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« Reply #38 on: October 23, 2020, 09:33:50 PM »

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

Michigan polling overstates Democrats (as does Wisconsin and Minnesota).

GA/MI/WI will vote similar

We've gone over this, and no.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=406056.msg7673202#msg7673202
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Hammy
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« Reply #39 on: October 23, 2020, 09:36:38 PM »

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

Michigan polling overstates Democrats (as does Wisconsin and Minnesota).

GA/MI/WI will vote similar

Dems still over-performed their topline polling average in all three of the rust belt states you mentioned. Where do you get that polls over-estimate them? North Carolina is the only competitive state this is true, what you're saying is demonstrably false.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #40 on: October 23, 2020, 10:56:43 PM »

At the RNC
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #41 on: October 24, 2020, 05:22:13 AM »

The vultures are circling around the Trump campaign.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #42 on: October 24, 2020, 06:54:57 AM »

The jobs that left are retail, customer jobs and restaurant jobs minimum wage jobs that blue collar and females need to secure a family
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #43 on: October 24, 2020, 12:44:43 PM »

Hey Republicans: you can celebrate the victory of your President at your local Radio Shack!

(Get it?)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #44 on: October 24, 2020, 02:09:24 PM »

New Poll: Georgia President by Other Source on 2020-10-15

Summary: D: 49%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #45 on: October 24, 2020, 02:10:44 PM »

New Poll: Michigan President by Other Source on 2020-10-06

Summary: D: 51%, R: 42%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #46 on: October 24, 2020, 02:12:13 PM »

New Poll: Iowa President by Other Source on 2020-10-08

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #47 on: October 24, 2020, 08:11:22 PM »

Just so we're clear, these are Republican commissioned polls?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #48 on: October 24, 2020, 08:12:22 PM »

Just so we're clear, these are Republican commissioned polls?
Yeah, by the American Action Forum
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #49 on: October 24, 2020, 08:16:37 PM »

Just so we're clear, these are Republican commissioned polls?
Yeah, by the American Action Forum

Smiley
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