Florida HD55: Trump+33

[Bootes Void]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/377048-poll-shows-kaylee-tuck-a-heavy-favorite-in-hd-55

Trump:66(+33)
Biden:33

492 LV
MOE:4.4%
poll was conducted October 23rd

In 2016 Trump won here 65.1-31.7
in 2018, Scott won 66.9-32.8 and DeSantis won 67.0-31.3

St Pete pollster

[Person Man]

Biden appears to be doing slightly better in a very rural area.

[Crumpets]

This is good to see. We saw polls like Duval County tied in 2016 and assumed it meant Hillary was blowing Trump out of the water in Florida because we didn't also have polls from rural areas to match against. That dynamic doesn't seem to be at play this time.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Trump probably needs better margins than this in the super Republican parts of the state to offset what's going to happen in the Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Jacksonville suburbs.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump doesn't seem to be losing support here, but he's not gaining any either to offset his losses elsewhere in the state. While he's doing better with Cubans, it doesn't seem like he'll be able to match Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott's performances with them.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is The Villages HD if anybody is wondering.

The Villages is district 33, this is district 55 with a 33 point lead.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is The Villages HD if anybody is wondering.

No it's not. HD55 is around Sebring and Lake Okeechobee. The Villages is HD33.

[Roronoa D. Law]

This is The Villages HD if anybody is wondering.

No it's not. HD55 is around Sebring and Lake Okeechobee. The Villages is HD33.

This is The Villages HD if anybody is wondering.

The Villages is district 33, this is district 55 with a 33 point lead.

Oops, my bad but it's nice to see atlas still love to be Auto correct.

[compucomp]

This is The Villages HD if anybody is wondering.

This district isn't The Villages, it's south of Orlando, west of Port St. Lucie.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Back on topic, please. I deleted the post-move on.

[Lief 🗽]

This is The Villages HD if anybody is wondering.

This district isn't The Villages, it's south of Orlando, west of Port St. Lucie.

Wow, Biden hitting 33% in a district that appears to be inhabited entirely by swamp people. Tremendous!

[TheLaRocca]

This is The Villages HD if anybody is wondering.

This district isn't The Villages, it's south of Orlando, west of Port St. Lucie.

Wow, Biden hitting 33% in a district that appears to be inhabited entirely by swamp people. Tremendous!

Biden will do what Nelson got in rural Florida.

he will do slightly better then HRC...turnout may be through the roof in the swamps...but none of that matters if Biden is improving.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The figures are slightly off above.

For Florida Politics

Trump +31% pre-rounding

Trump 63%
Biden 33%
Third party 1%
Undecided/won't say 3%

In 2018, Pigman (R) won the state house district 65.9%-34.1%

State House election: Tuck + 34% pre-rouding

Tuck (R) 63%
Tripp (D) 30%
Undecided/won't say 7%

[Person Man]

HD 55 is where the good old boys send their hound dogs to chase possums, wild cats, bears, and raccoons in the pine forests surrounded by swamps and savanas. The dogs’ accommodations are more expensive than the men’s.

[Podgy the Bear]

I have driven in that area from Bradenton to Jupiter on several occasions.  I'm surprised that there are even that many Democrats in HD55.

The rural percentage for Trump looks to be maxed out.  The more significant issue will be the actual turnout--will they come out of the woodwork to offset the expected Biden gains in the suburban areas.

[psychprofessor]

The worry was that Trump would super charge these areas from 2016 and you would see him 70+ and above. If he matches or slightly recedes in these areas he won't be able to make up lost ground in urban metro suburbs.

[Badger]

This is a super Republican District that I believe swung very hard to Trump in 2016