If your personal prediction is terribly off, what happened?

[ProgressiveModerate]

For me, it would probably be some pretty massive polling error. I feel pretty comfortable about the fundamentals of my mode, but at this point it comes down to the polls

[Alben Barkley]

Democracy died.

Let me elaborate: I don't think even a massive polling error could do it, because this isn't 1948 (when Gallup was pretty much the only pollster and their last poll was like over a month before the election, missing all the tightening, never mind the advances in polling since then). And a 2016 sized error in Trump's favor couldn't even save him.

So the only way it happens is if the election is literally rigged, by internal and/or external forces hostile to democracy.

[7,052,770]

Biden approached 500 electoral votes and 60 senators.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden approached 500 electoral votes and 60 senators.

Now that's a more optimistic way of looking at it, lol.

[redjohn]

People came home to the incumbent. I don't expect it to happen.

[Crumpets]

Option 1: The 5 states that I am predicting Trump wins by < 3 (Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Texas, and Georgia) turn out to be "there yet."

Option 2: Polls missed something very fundamental about the electorate in multiple regions. Probably not shy Trump voters, but more like "oh, we forgot to weight by level of interest in politics and we seriously over-sampled highly engaged voters who it turns out skewed heavily pro-Biden across all other demographic controls."

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

I rightfully get mocked for years while President Biden likely wins a huge victory and gets a solid trifecta. Hopefully we can get some real healthcare, electoral, and judicial reforms.
Also I gotta love the overconfidence of Atlas, it’s very fitting.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

I rightfully get mocked for years while President Biden likely wins a huge victory and gets a solid trifecta.
Also, I gotta love the overconfidence of Atlas right now. It’s just so fitting.

Okay doomer

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Either...

1) 0 Democrats voted on Election Day

or

2) Republicans and Democrats basically tied the ED vote, and it ended up bein an absolute tsunami for Democrats.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden approached 500 electoral votes and 60 senators.

Jones, McGrath, Espy and HEGAR are done, it won't be 60 votes

[Hammy]

Depends.

If Trump actually wins in places I don't think he will, then (save for PA where it'd likely be due to unfair counting) I will buy into the "shy R voter" theory

If it's off in the other direction and Biden picks up states I don't presently expect (namely the Sunbelt trio) then it'll mean I know less about trends and statistics than I thought, and readily admit to such.

[S019ian Liberal]

An destructive asteroid crashed into this world which ended all life on the planet, truthfully.

Texas, in that I don't think the margin will be any bigger than the 2.6% that Cruz won by

the consensus is already tx  =  tossup afaik.

[Ferguson97]

The GOP's gains with non-college Black and Latino men were completely fictional and/or the Democrat's gains with college-educated women were overstated.

[Interlocutor]

An destructive asteroid crashed into this world which ended all life on the planet, truthfully.

Texas, in that I don't think the margin will be any bigger than the 2.6% that Cruz won by

the consensus is already tx  =  tossup afaik.

Why are you responding to me in a thread I haven't commented in?

[Non Swing Voter]

The GOP's gains with non-college Black and Latino men were completely fictional and/or the Democrat's gains with college-educated women were overstated.

The latter is definitely not overstated, that's my prediction.

[S019ian Liberal]

An destructive asteroid crashed into this world which ended all life on the planet, truthfully.

Texas, in that I don't think the margin will be any bigger than the 2.6% that Cruz won by

the consensus is already tx  =  tossup afaik.

Why are you responding to me in a thread I haven't commented in?

i'm not Even?

[Interlocutor]

An destructive asteroid crashed into this world which ended all life on the planet, truthfully.

Texas, in that I don't think the margin will be any bigger than the 2.6% that Cruz won by

the consensus is already tx  =  tossup afaik.

You've done that twice already

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Biden managed to snatch NC, FL, etc. where I have him losing in by a hair rn.

[Morgan Kingsley]

Biden landslide - had too much of a lingering doubt and viewed trump as a favorite for too long

Trump landslide - I drank the atlas cool aid too much by the end of the election

[Real Texan Politics]

Didn't pay too much attention to early voting.

[S019ian Liberal]

I drank the atlas cool aid too much by the end of the election

And ya dint even know the favor.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’ve been predicting a Biden popular vote win by 9 points for the last 6 months, and I am sticking with that out of principle.

At this point, I think that if this prediction is significantly wrong, it is more likely to be in Biden’s direction than Trumps (i.e. a 15-point Biden victory is more likely that a 3-point PV victory/EC loss).

If that happens, it will probably be a combination of things, most significantly:
- Unprecedented overall turnout led by increased early and mail-in voting opportunities
- Depressed turnout on election day due to covid fears and Republican apathy or hopelessness
- Dispartities in GOTV efforts dues to lack of fund and incompetence by the Trump campaign
- Pollsters overcorrecting for perceived mistakes in 2016

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's why I'm not making a formal prediction until November 2.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This is a Covid 19 election, we didn't know D's were gonna win 40 seats in 2018 either

[Suburbia]

Democrats underestimated white Americans' apathy at BLM, it's not 2050 yet.