GA HD-132 - Spry Strategies/Georgia House Republican Caucus (R): Trump +6%, Trammell losing

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-moving-toward-a-fenced-in-state-capitol/BOTLEASNIJBZHDFZIPSVP7FON4/

October 1-4
397 likely voters
MoE: 4.8%
Margins calculated pre-rounding

Presidential:
Trump 50%
Biden 44%
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 6%

Pre-rounding, Jenkins leads by 8 in the state legislature's race.
David Jenkins (R) 48%
Bob Trammell (D-inc.) 39%
Unsure 13%

Trammell won this district 52.2%-47.8% in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-moving-toward-a-fenced-in-state-capitol/BOTLEASNIJBZHDFZIPSVP7FON4/

October 1-4
397 likely voters
MoE: 4.8%
Margins calculated pre-rounding

Presidential:
Trump 50%
Biden 44%
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 6%

Pre-rounding, Jenkins leads by 8 in the state legislature's race.
David Jenkins (R) 48%
Bob Trammell (D-inc.) 39%
Unsure 13%

Trammell won this district 52.2%-47.8% in 2018.

So Trammel went from winning by 4.4% to losing by 9? Junk this.

[VAR]

Trump won here by 3 points in 2016. Kemp won by 2.

[wbrocks67]

Trump won here by 3 points in 2016.

Junk this even further then

[VAR]

The same poster who appears to be triggered by this poll showing Trump up 6 in a Kemp +2 district, defended the Quinnipiac poll that had Biden up 21 in Maine.

[lfromnj]

Trump won here by 3 points in 2016.

Junk this even further then

Lol what?

Its a rural seat not some zooming left Atlanta seat.Trump +6 is a bit high but not stupidly high.

[lfromnj]

The same poster who appears to be triggered by this poll showing Trump up 6 in a Kemp +2 district, defended the Quinnipiac poll that had Biden up 21 in Maine.

Don't even forget to mention its not Alpharetta, its rural deep south Georgia.

[ExSky]

The same poster who appears to be triggered by this poll showing Trump up 6 in a Kemp +2 district, defended the Quinnipiac poll that had Biden up 21 in Maine.

And you probably dismissed hat and gave legitimacy to this. Why are you being a hypocrite?

[wbrocks67]

The same poster who appears to be triggered by this poll showing Trump up 6 in a Kemp +2 district, defended the Quinnipiac poll that had Biden up 21 in Maine.

Pretty sure I never "defended it" and said that that poll was a slight outlier, but we had already gotten Biden upper double teens in that state before so it really wasn't that much of one.

Trump *improving* on his margin from 2016 by 3% anywhere is clearly outlier territory.

[VAR]

The same poster who appears to be triggered by this poll showing Trump up 6 in a Kemp +2 district, defended the Quinnipiac poll that had Biden up 21 in Maine.

And you probably dismissed hat and gave legitimacy to this. Why are you being a hypocrite?

No I didn’t.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I can buy this. Trammel struggled in his own primary this year, so it seems there are some issues he is having locally.

[lfromnj]

I can buy this. Trammel struggled in his own primary this year, so it seems there are some issues he is having locally.

TBF I think its going to be Trump +2 here and Tramell +1,

Also Tramell is a white dude in a district where like 90% of Democrats are black in the most polarized region of the nation. Any serious contest will be a struggle even with incumbency. I assume he is fairly moderate too which also creates the primary challenge. Even if rural black southern voters may not be progressive I could see some of them like 20% of them wanting a progressive.

[Del Tachi]

I can buy this.

It should be easily believable that non-Metro GA can swing to Trump.  Just look at the trend/swing maps from 2016 and 2018.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I can buy this.

It should be easily believe that non-Metro GA can swing to Trump.  Just look at the trend/swing maps from 2016 and 2018.

It would be kind of funny for Democrats own House leader to lose even if Biden and possibly the Senate Dems are winning the state, but it’s entirely possible.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s an R internal....

[Calthrina950]

I can buy this.

It should be easily believe that non-Metro GA can swing to Trump.  Just look at the trend/swing maps from 2016 and 2018.

It would be kind of funny for Democrats own House leader to lose even if Biden and possibly the Senate Dems are winning the state, but it’s entirely possible.

Certainly agreed. It still astonishes me the extent to which Stacey Abrams did worse in rural Georgia in 2018 then how even Hillary Clinton had done in 2016. Abrams, moreover, lost at least a dozen rural counties which had been carried by Jason Carter against Nathan Deal in 2014. So it wouldn't be surprising if Biden underperforms Clinton in the rurals, but wins the state anyways because of building upon Abrams' gains in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

[ON Progressive]

This has a 33% Black electorate in a seat that is 39% registered Black voters, so this is very R friendly.

Having said that, Trammell is definitely in trouble since this is a Trump-Kemp seat.

[Roll Roons]

Still find it interesting how the GA House Dems went from being led by a black woman from Atlanta to a white man from a rural district.

[Red Wall]

Total dem wipeout in rural Georgia

[TheLaRocca]

Yeah, not surprising...The seat was +3 Trump lol. He's likely consolidating the last of the white vote there (rural white Georgia has more White Dems then rural MS or Louisiana).

tho it is an R-internal...Prollay 52-46% Trump.

[skbl17]

On one hand, Trammell was always in trouble; his state House primary margin was only 51.5% versus the GOP, the worst of all the Dem-held seats. He's had enough crossover appeal to survive even as the top-of-ballot margins have become increasingly GOP-friendly, but I wonder if his time is running out. I know this is a GOP internal, which means that caution is always warranted, but the outcome it paints isn't outlandish.

For those unaware, HD-132 is a district that's Dem at the ends (Newnan and LaGrange) but ancestral Dem/GOP-leaning in the middle (Moreland, Hoganville, and much of northern Meriwether County). In the past, Newnan+LaGrange+Meriwether County was enough to keep Dem incumbents in control here, but as Meriwether (like most ancestral Dem counties in this state) has moved right, it means that any Dem who wants to win this district is increasingly reliant on getting solid turnout and support at the "ends". There could be enough support at the "ends" this year to earn Trammell reelection in spite of the disappearance of Dem support in the "middle", but that will really be put to the test.

Now, this is one of the few Dem-held state House seats where Dems are really, really vulnerable (none of their state Senate seats are anything less than Safe D). There are a bunch of marginal seats in the north metro, but a combination of the increasingly Dem-friendly environment there and residual state legislative incumbency effects (i.e. it's hard to dislodge an incumbent state legislator unless the top-of-ballot swing is truly awful - see what will happen to Republican Brett Harrell in his Abrams+15 HD-106 this year - the incumbent is truly controversial, or the margin is extremely tight to begin with AND local trends are unfavorable to the party holding the seat - HD-109 will be a good test on this point) means that all the metro area Dems should survive, even those like Robichaux (HD-48), Clark (HD-108), and Frances Williams (HD-37).

Of course, losing Trammell would make the already slim Dem chances of winning the state House even smaller, because they need a net gain of 16 seats. Losing Trammell would mean that they would need to gain 17 seats from the GOP, which is not impossible, but Biden would need to have an unbelievable night, so unbelievable that it drags a whole bunch of districts (I'm talking the likes of those in HD-44 or HD-110) over the line with him.

It's quite possible that Biden could win a majority of state House seats versus Trump, but his coattails (and whatever Ossoff can get) aren't enough to bring enough state House candidates over the line with him.

I still think Dems will have a net gain of seats in both chambers, but they're almost certainly going to be condemned to another round of horrible state legislative maps for another decade.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, not surprising...The seat was +3 Trump lol. He's likely consolidating the last of the white vote there (rural white Georgia has more White Dems then rural MS or Louisiana).

tho it is an R-internal...Prollay 52-46% Trump.

Rural White SW georgia is just as polarized as MS, or just southern Georgia. Central Georgia has Atlanta which has a decent number of liberal whites and northern Georgia has almost no minorities which depolarizes it enough for Democrats to get into the upper teens or low 20's with whites.

[TheLaRocca]

Yeah, not surprising...The seat was +3 Trump lol. He's likely consolidating the last of the white vote there (rural white Georgia has more White Dems then rural MS or Louisiana).

tho it is an R-internal...Prollay 52-46% Trump.

Rural White SW georgia is just as polarized as MS, or just southern Georgia. Central Georgia has Atlanta which has a decent number of liberal whites and northern Georgia has almost no minorities which depolarizes it enough for Democrats to get into the upper teens or low 20's with whites.

Not as much until recently actually. Carter got 20-25% of rural SW Georgia Whites. So did John Kerry.

Look at a county like Quitman. 54-44 Trump but was historically Democrat. the 54-44 margin for Trump mirrors the exact white-black divide (Obama won 54-45) so yes white rural vote in Georgia HAS dropped from like 15% to nearly zero.

We have vote by race in Georgia too by registration.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This is worse than Trafalgar, toss it in the trash.

[lfromnj]

Turns out Trammell lost, wbrocks unskewing did not work.