OK-01 - SoonerPoll/News on 6: Trump at 56%
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  OK-01 - SoonerPoll/News on 6: Trump at 56%
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Author Topic: OK-01 - SoonerPoll/News on 6: Trump at 56%  (Read 771 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 23, 2020, 08:40:48 PM »

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected

October 15-20
1492 likely voters

Trump won here 61%-33% in 2016.
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 08:43:08 PM »

Good poll for Trump.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 08:44:51 PM »


You’d say that if it was Biden at 56%.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 08:47:10 PM »

If Trump can't come close to 60% here, it means he's doing horribly in Sun Belt metros across the country. (And quite possibly Rust Belt too). Also, it means he won't carry the 5th and Kendra Horn will be re-elected.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 08:50:31 PM »


No, I wouldn't. Realistically, this is a good result for Trump.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 08:59:31 PM »


No, I wouldn't. Realistically, this is a good result for Trump.

Being down 5% from 61% last time is hardly good for him.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 08:59:42 PM »

Trump is at 58.5% in this poll.  
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 08:59:50 PM »


No, I wouldn't. Realistically, this is a good result for Trump.

But he's 5 points behind where he was in 2016, and there's far less third party voting.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 09:01:08 PM »

Even the non-partisan district polls are showing Biden winning by crazy numbers in the teens nationally. Interesting.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 11:09:55 PM »

"Living on Tulsa Time"...

Assuming the district swings aren't universal, Tulsa is likely shifting hard DEM, mainly driven by Anglo voters.

Curious about what the final margins out of Broken Arrow will look like, will it swing more or less than Tulsa?
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republican1993
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2020, 12:43:42 AM »

If Trump can't come close to 60% here, it means he's doing horribly in Sun Belt metros across the country. (And quite possibly Rust Belt too). Also, it means he won't carry the 5th and Kendra Horn will be re-elected.

ya realize they had trump + 15 in like late polls in 2016 lol
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2020, 12:46:07 AM »

What is Biden's vote share in this poll?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2020, 01:33:32 AM »

Not sure if it is available....

Looking at the poll and crosstabs it appears to be a Statewide poll of Oklahoma by CD, and DEM PRES and House Toplines posted?

Dear Abby: Confused in Oregon

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2020, 10:18:15 AM »

Wait, so we get to see Trump's number, but not Biden's number? WTF
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politicallefty
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2020, 01:18:29 PM »

It's worth noting that Tulsa County (which makes up about 80% of the district) is one the most ancestrally Republican county in the country. Not even LBJ won it in 1964 (he didn't get within single digits). In presidential elections since 1996, the Democratic share has consistently been within a range of 35.6%-37.8%. Trump at only 56% in the entire district would signal one of the worst performances for Republicans in Tulsa County since 1964 or worse.

It would've been nice to see Biden's number too.
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