GA-Landmark: Trump +4

[Rand]

My guess is we will see a few polls shifting toward Trump post debate.   Enough to make a difference? Time will tell but  the 370-400 EV predictions are looking more and more like fantasy.

All election predictions, regardless of EV totals, popular vote margin, etc. are fantasy because they presume the future. Biden will be inaugurated regardless of whether a 279 EV fantasy materializes or a 413 EV fantasy materializes.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

No matter how many polls we get, "Throw it in the average" goes completely out the window when one poll shows a bad result.

ESPECIALLY when said poll is by a state pollster whose had the worst margins for the Democrat all year.

Landmark has it Trump +4, Quinnipiac had it Biden +7 & everyone else has been +1 in either direction. What does that balance out to?

[Gass3268]

Landmark doesn’t weigh for education.

https://twitter.com/justingraywsb/status/1319747508797607938?s=21

[Hammy]

Landmark doesn’t weigh for education.

https://twitter.com/justingraywsb/status/1319747508797607938?s=21

If Biden is winning back WWC/non-college voters, would that cause a reverse 2016 type of error that ends up being to Biden's benefit?

[DrScholl]

Landmark doesn’t weigh for education.

https://twitter.com/justingraywsb/status/1319747508797607938?s=21

23% is less than Abrams got and somehow it seems doubtful that Biden would do worse.

[BudgieForce]

Landmark seem to always have Trump overperforming with white voters. I guess its possible, but it would be the complete opposite to what we've been seeing nationwide.

[Alben Barkley]

Landmark doesn’t weigh for education.

https://twitter.com/justingraywsb/status/1319747508797607938?s=21

Well that would explain a lot.

[MillennialModerate]

I’m stunned. Absolutely stunned.

I just never saw the a Republicans winning Georgia....

Oh wait. I said back in January that Texas will flip before Georgia flips. GOP is going 3-0 in Georgia.

[Alben Barkley]

I’m stunned. Absolutely stunned.

I just never saw the a Republicans winning Georgia....

Oh wait. I said back in January that Texas will flip before Georgia flips. GOP is going 3-0 in Georgia.

I’d wait for more than an outlier poll that doesn’t weight for education and still left Biden leading in the averages before I started acting smug.

[forsythvoter]

I think Abrams got around 25% of the white vote in 2018, so would be surprised to see Biden do worse. They also didn't weight by education, which is important in GA because white voters with a college degree are trending sharply D, while whites without a degree haven't shifted much.

[wbrocks67]

Love how this poll cancels out all of the other great polls Biden had in GA this week

This is all that needs to be said. This thread has 3 pages when it's clear Landmark is junk and they've been junk this whole cycle. Yes, GA will definitely vote the same exact way as 2016! Sounds right!

[Buzz]

2018 Landmark
Poll: Kemp +2
Actual Kemp +1.4

2016 Landmark
Poll: Trump +3
Actual Trump +5

2014 Landmark
Poll: Perdue +4
Actual: Perdue +8


They suck! /s

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump +4

Trump 49% (n/c)
Biden 45% (-2)
Undecided 4% (n/c)

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/president-trump-widens-lead-over-joe-biden-latest-exclusive-channel-2-poll/7R643PFTRVDFHGNWHJFBVHKUCY/

October 21
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Margin/undecided #s added
Changes with October 7

[Horus]

Democrats still have room to fall in North Georgia and parts of rural South Georgia. North Georgia in particular is one of the most reactionary parts of the country.

[Tekken_Guy]

Democrats still have room to fall in North Georgia and parts of rural South Georgia. North Georgia in particular is one of the most reactionary parts of the country.

If they didn’t vote for Trump last time, why would they do so now?

[lfromnj]

Imagine calling the gold standard of GA an outlier...

Quinnipiac is a gold standard pollster, yet they've issued outliers.

LOL I can’t wait to bump every Quinnipiac poll on 11/4 that was off by 7+ points.  There will be several.

You'll be in questioning with the Secret Service on November 4th for making threats against President-elect Biden.

Buzz: Normal dude and R leaning poster who just wants to laugh at what he believes to be wrong polls.

You: Buzz is a potential terrorist

k

[lfromnj]

2018 Landmark
Poll: Kemp +2
Actual Kemp +1.4

2016 Landmark
Poll: Trump +3
Actual Trump +5

2014 Landmark
Poll: Perdue +4
Actual: Perdue +8


They suck! /s

Yeah the gaslighting is pretty insane, it seems like a decent GA pollster which I can comfortably dump into an average although I think it is wrong, the lack of weighting by education is a red flag although less so in Georgia than other states.

[republican1993]

This is looking more and more like 2016.

Except this is GEORGIA. Biden doesn't need to win GEORGIA. When you, as a Republican Trump supporter, are getting relieved because you might win GEORGIA, you should be very worried.

i'm shaking in my boots after your post

[VAR]

Gold standard Landmark says the presidential race in one of the most inelastic states in the nation shifted from Biden +2 to Trump +4 in three weeks. Of course I’ll believe it, since Landmark is the gold standard  .