Bullock wins if Biden only loses by 6.
Biden winning over former or potential Trump voters who were already voting Democratic down-ballot (e.g. in Indian Country), 2016 third-party voters who already split their ticket in the last election mostly breaking Biden's way, transplants/first-time voters voting Democratic across the board, etc. aren’t developments that necessarily benefit down-ballot Democrats this year if Republicans have succeeded at eroding much of Bullock's crossover appeal. There’s no guarantee that Bullock will "outrun" Biden by a fixed margin, and I’ve never understood the "If Trump loses MT by x percentage points, Bullock will win/lose by y points because he will outperform Biden by z points" line of thinking. I don’t expect there to be nearly as much split-ticket voting as in 2016.
