OH-12 - PPP (D): Trump +1

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1319620588265242627

53-42 Trump in 2016.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

OH-12 : 2016

Trump (R): 53% (+11)
Clinton (D): 42%

[wbrocks67]

Lines up with OH being a tossup.

[Buzz]

Add about 8 points for Trump minimum since it’s not only PPP but an internal.

[Devils30]

I think Biden needs to win this one to carry OH.

[forsythvoter]

Biden's strategy in OH seems to be a mix of 1) getting suburban areas to swing towards him hard, 2) ramping up urban turnout in Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, Dayton, Cincinnati, Columbus and 3) getting traditionally WWC areas like Trumbull and Mahoning to at least partially revert to 2012 levels. Polls seem to show 1 and 3 are happening - not sure how the early vote situation in OH is so can't speak to 2.

What Trump will need to win Ohio is the remaining rural areas to trend towards him and to have record-setting turnout.

[Sbane]

Add about 8 points for Trump minimum since it’s not only PPP but an internal.

I would add only 5 points but even then this is not a great poll for Biden. I think this illustrates why Trump will likely hold on to Ohio.

[Ljube]

Biden probably won't carry Ohio. But Biden really doesn't need Ohio.

[Bootes Void]

Add about 8 points for Trump minimum since it’s not only PPP but an internal.

I would add only 5 points but even then this is not a great poll for Biden. I think this illustrates why Trump will likely hold on to Ohio.

This is a Trump+11 district, how is doing 10 points better than Clinton not a good poll for Biden.
PPP is a fair pollster, just sayin

[woodley park]

Add about 8 points for Trump minimum since it’s not only PPP but an internal.

I would add only 5 points but even then this is not a great poll for Biden. I think this illustrates why Trump will likely hold on to Ohio.

I recommend taking the numbers as they are, and just incorporating them into the broader picture being painted cumulatively by other polls. Someone on Atlas recommending that we add X points because Y amounts to nothing more than a non-expert talking out of their ass to try and look smart or shape the narrative to one they are more comfortable with.

[Sbane]

Add about 8 points for Trump minimum since it’s not only PPP but an internal.

I would add only 5 points but even then this is not a great poll for Biden. I think this illustrates why Trump will likely hold on to Ohio.

This is a Trump+11 district, how is doing 10 points better than Clinton not a good poll for Biden.
PPP is a fair pollster, just sayin

It is still an internal and this poll was released for a reason. Probably to show Balderson below 50.

[Badger]

Add about 8 points for Trump minimum since it’s not only PPP but an internal.

I would add only 5 points but even then this is not a great poll for Biden. I think this illustrates why Trump will likely hold on to Ohio.

I recommend taking the numbers as they are, and just incorporating them into the broader picture being painted cumulatively by other polls. Someone on Atlas recommending that we add X points because Y amounts to nothing more than a non-expert talking out of their ass to try and look smart or shape the narrative to one they are more comfortable with.

This.

Also, if Trump doesn't win this District, he's probably screwed.

[Sbane]

Add about 8 points for Trump minimum since it’s not only PPP but an internal.

I would add only 5 points but even then this is not a great poll for Biden. I think this illustrates why Trump will likely hold on to Ohio.

I recommend taking the numbers as they are, and just incorporating them into the broader picture being painted cumulatively by other polls. Someone on Atlas recommending that we add X points because Y amounts to nothing more than a non-expert talking out of their ass to try and look smart or shape the narrative to one they are more comfortable with.

Sure, 5 points is arbitrary. Maybe it’s 8 or maybe it’s 3, but I can assure you this is the best picture the Democrats can show for their side in this district. Why would we think otherwise?

[Senator Incitatus]

I wonder if part of the reason CD polls show such a major drop for Trump (besides being mostly taken in swing districts, where he's lost more ground than in rurals) is that knowing who is running for House is an informal proxy for education.

[swf541]

I wonder if part of the reason CD polls show such a major drop for Trump (besides being mostly taken in swing districts, where he's lost more ground than in rurals) is that knowing who is running for House is an informal proxy for education.

CD polls were the most accurate in 16 so that doesnt really make sense

[Senator Incitatus]

I wonder if part of the reason CD polls show such a major drop for Trump (besides being mostly taken in swing districts, where he's lost more ground than in rurals) is that knowing who is running for House is an informal proxy for education.

CD polls were the most accurate in 16 so that doesnt really make sense

Is that so? I guess I can stop wondering, if it is.