MT-NYT/Siena: Trump +6
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October 20, 2021, 04:34:22 AM

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  MT-NYT/Siena: Trump +6
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Author Topic: MT-NYT/Siena: Trump +6  (Read 994 times)
VAR
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« on: October 23, 2020, 12:04:49 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 12:07:04 PM »

Bullock wins if Biden only loses by 6.
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Hassan 2022
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 12:07:38 PM »

Disastrous poll for Trump.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 12:07:53 PM »

Bullock wins if Biden only loses by 6.

Yes, these Siena polls show lots of upside for Bollier and Bullock.
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redjohn
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 12:09:23 PM »

Oh wow. 43% in Montana and some people still think Biden can't win states like IA+OH lol
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 12:09:51 PM »

Second poll in a row to show MT in mid-single digits.

Weird how the doomers never show up in threads like this, by the way. But they’ll make threads from Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and random fake pollsters that claim their address is the Liberty Bell 8 pages long.
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Reluctant hardcore partisan Darthpi
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 12:10:04 PM »

Trump under 50% in a state he won by 20 points last time seems pretty terrible.

Montana is still likely Trump, but if Biden were to beat his polls nationally then it might get interesting.
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VAR
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 12:11:37 PM »

Second Fifth poll in a row to show MT in mid-single digits.
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VAR
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 12:13:47 PM »

Underlying numbers look somewhat better for Trump

Trump approval: 52/44 (+8)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 52/45 (+7)
Biden: 43/54 (-11)
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Hyouzel the Redistricter Supreme
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 12:18:40 PM »

Underlying numbers look somewhat better for Trump

Trump approval: 52/44 (+8)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 52/45 (+7)
Biden: 43/54 (-11)

Those are probably going to match up pretty well with the final results in MT, low 50s for Trump and mid 40s for Biden.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 12:21:15 PM »

Sam Elliott voiceover bump for Joe.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 12:28:18 PM »

Bullock wins if Biden only loses by 6.

Biden winning over former or potential Trump voters who were already voting Democratic down-ballot (e.g. in Indian Country), 2016 third-party voters who already split their ticket in the last election mostly breaking Biden's way, transplants/first-time voters voting Democratic across the board, etc. aren’t developments that necessarily benefit down-ballot Democrats this year if Republicans have succeeded at eroding much of Bullock's crossover appeal. There’s no guarantee that Bullock will "outrun" Biden by a fixed margin, and I’ve never understood the "If Trump loses MT by x percentage points, Bullock will win/lose by y points because he will outperform Biden by z points" line of thinking. I don’t expect there to be nearly as much split-ticket voting as in 2016.
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Skye
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2020, 12:30:24 PM »

Bullock wins if Biden only loses by 6.

The poll literally has Bullock trailing by 3 points.
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YE
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2020, 12:50:13 PM »

Bullock wins if Biden only loses by 6.

The poll literally has Bullock trailing by 3 points.

Siena seems really bearish downballot on Dems compared to most pollsters. Not saying it’s wrong or for that matter right though.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2020, 12:54:57 PM »

I'm a bit surprised there's so little ticket splitting across all the race here.  How the hell did Tester win in 2018 if >95% of voters are voting a straight party ticket?
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YE
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2020, 12:57:59 PM »

I'm a bit surprised there's so little ticket splitting across all the race here.  How the hell did Tester win in 2018 if >95% of voters are voting a straight party ticket?

The people voting Tester/statewide Dems are simply voting Biden.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2020, 01:03:59 PM »

Second poll in a row to show MT in mid-single digits.

Weird how the doomers never show up in threads like this, by the way. But they’ll make threads from Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and random fake pollsters that claim their address is the Liberty Bell 8 pages long.

Read the thread about empty calorie votes
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soundchaser
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2020, 01:10:42 PM »

Second poll in a row to show MT in mid-single digits.

Weird how the doomers never show up in threads like this, by the way. But they’ll make threads from Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and random fake pollsters that claim their address is the Liberty Bell 8 pages long.

Read the thread about empty calorie votes

If Trump is only winning Montana by 6, he's getting beat to hell in the rust belt. Swings aren't uniform, but they're not single-state either.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2020, 01:14:38 PM »

I'm a bit surprised there's so little ticket splitting across all the race here.  How the hell did Tester win in 2018 if >95% of voters are voting a straight party ticket?

The people voting Tester/statewide Dems are simply voting Biden.

But Tester got >50% of the vote, and Biden is only polling 43%.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2020, 01:19:11 PM »

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt101820-crosstabs/1bf52689f78606b4/full.pdf

October 18-20
758 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 14-16

Trump 49% (n/c)
Biden 43% (+1)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Someone else 2% (n/c) (+2 from at 0% but with some voters)
Not voting for President 0% (But some voters) (-1)
Don't know/Refused 3% (-2)

Hawkins (G) previously at 1%.
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redjohn
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2020, 01:22:10 PM »

Second poll in a row to show MT in mid-single digits.

Weird how the doomers never show up in threads like this, by the way. But they’ll make threads from Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and random fake pollsters that claim their address is the Liberty Bell 8 pages long.

Some people believe that FL is going to vote two points to the left of MT, when it was 19 points to the left of MT in 2016. I don't understand how people can acknowledge that many/most deep red states are going to swing to Biden by double-digits, yet think Trump will simultaneously gain support in battleground states.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2020, 01:23:13 PM »

We are getting state by state polling not 10 plus numbers from natl polls that were inflated. Ever seen nice MSN published those polls, in April media polls have suggested it's a 500EC race and that's was a D's dream map.

Anyways if Biden is elected, Covid isn't gonna be magically disappear, we still gonna have the virus and he will be blamed by Rs if he doesn't solve it, just like D's blame Rs this time
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TML
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2020, 01:31:48 PM »

Second poll in a row to show MT in mid-single digits.

Weird how the doomers never show up in threads like this, by the way. But they’ll make threads from Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and random fake pollsters that claim their address is the Liberty Bell 8 pages long.

Some people believe that FL is going to vote two points to the left of MT, when it was 19 points to the left of MT in 2016. I don't understand how people can acknowledge that many/most deep red states are going to swing to Biden by double-digits, yet think Trump will simultaneously gain support in battleground states.

Montana is rather unique in how wildly it can swing:

1984 to 1988: D+16.42
1996 to 2000: R+22.12
2004 to 2008: D+18.12
2008 to 2012: R+11.27

Because it was won by the Democrats at the presidential level in 1992 and narrowly won by Republicans (<5%) in both 1996 and 2008, all three of which were big Democratic wins nationwide, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the end result here this year is not further right than R+5 or so.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2020, 03:15:36 PM »

MT also has same day registration, so this poll only includes those registered to vote.

fwiw... regional breakdowns:

Bozeman / Missoula:

Biden- 49%
Trump- 44%
LBT-      3%
Don't Know / Refused-  3%

East:

Biden- 29%
Trump- 60%
LBT-      6%
Don't Know / Refused-  4%

Helena / Great Falls:

Biden- 46%
Trump- 51%
LBT-      0%
Don't Know / Refused-  1%

West:

Biden- 41%
Trump- 52%
LBT-      4%
Don't Know / Refused-  2%

Yellowstone:

Biden- 50%
Trump- 37%
LBT-      2%
Don't Know / Refused-  6%
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Hammy
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2020, 03:18:00 PM »

Why is Montana so swingy and further left than surrounding states?
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