CIP Election Tracker - October 2020

[OBD]

Southern Gubernatorial Election 100% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 31 votes 51.67% ✓
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 29 votes 48.33%
Other: 0 votes NaN%
Last Vote Counted: weatherboy
Invalid: Wulfric (not in region)

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern runoff.

updated 11/1 8:13 PM PST

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 32 votes 51.61%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 30 votes 48.39%
Other: 0 votes 0%

[Continential]

Winfield accidently invalidated his ballot unless the Council and Senate ballots are different.

[OBD]

Presidential Election (41/185) 22% reporting
Vice President MB (L-NM) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 26 63.41%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 12 29.27%
Southern Delegate KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) / Census Lady Peebs (P-NC) (write-in): 2 4.88%
Other: 1 2.44%
Last Vote Counted: BG-NY

Current Prediction: 69% Chance of MB Win

House Election (41/185) 22% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 27 votes 65.85%
- FalterinArc (L-WA) 1 votes
- SevenEleven (L-CA) 4 votes
- AdamGriffin (L-Scotland) 12 votes ✓
- Razze (P-FL) 4 votes
- TexasGurl (I-NY) 5 votes
Federalist Slate: 8 votes 19.51%
- Joseph Cao (F-IL) 4 votes
- Spark498 (F-FL)
- Jessica (F-MS)
- WestMidlander (F-NC) 4 votes
Democratic Aliance Slate: 3 votes 7.32%
- beeman (DA-IL) 3 votes
Liberal Slate: 2 votes 4.88%
- Poirot (LIB - NY) 2 votes
Independent Slate: 1 vote 2.44%
- Battista Minola (I-NM) (write-in) 1 votes
Last Vote Counted: TheRocketRaccoon
Current Quota: 5 _{= floor(41/10)+1}

Current Prediction: 35% Chance of Labor-Peace Majority 65% Chance of Hung House

Lincoln Senate Election (18/70) 24% reporting
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 9 votes 50%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 5 votes 27.78%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 4 votes 22.22%
Last Vote Counted: BG-NY
Invalid Votes: Winfield

Current Prediction: 50% chance of Tack Win 47% chance of Cao Win

Southern Senate Election (12/70) 17% reporting
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida) 7 votes 58.33%
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky) 3 votes 25%
Other: 2 votes 16.67%
Last Vote Counted: thumb21

Current Prediction: 92% chance of LT Win

Southern Gubernatorial Election (12/70) 17% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 9 votes 75%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 2 votes 16.67%
Other: 1 votes 8.33%

Current Prediction: 55% Chance of Spark Win

Southern Chamber Election (12/70) 17% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 7 votes 58.33%
- TimTurner (L-TX) 2 votes
- KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) 5 votes
Federalist Slate: 4 votes 33.33%
- Ben Kenobi (F-TX) 1 votes
- DTC (F-GA) 2 votes
- reaganete (F-MO) 1 votes
Democratic Alliance Slate: 1 votes 8.33%
- tmthforu94 (DA-KS)
- weatherboy1102 (DA-SC) 1 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: CalamityBlue

Current Prediction: 90% Chance of Hung Chamber

Lincoln Council Election (18/70) 26% reporting (5 councilors elected)

Labor Slate: 10 votes 55.56%
- S019 (L-NJ)
- Wulfric (L-PA) 3 votes
- Elcaspar (L-MI) 7 votes
Federalist Slate: 4 votes 22.22%
- Brother Jonathan (F-VT) 3 votes
- lwp2004 (F-CT)
- thr33 (F-NY) 1 vote
Liberal Slate: 4 votes 22.22%
- Ishan (LIB-PA) 4 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: BG-NY

Current Prediction: 80% Chance of Labor Majority

It's roughly midday of the first day of voting, and as has become usual in recent elections, Labor has taken an early lead. Vice President MB currently holds a commanding 63% in the Presidential election, and while late-coming opposition votes will likely tighten his margin, he and Fremont Senator TedBessell are in a solid position to win the election. Our model, accounting for the current vote imbalance in favor of Labor, gives MB a 69% chance to win the election, though if the Vice President can hold his lead this number will go up fast.

Meanwhile, in addition to calls for Labor Senator DevoutCentrist and MP Scott in Fremont, we've made our first call in a contested election: Labor Representative Adam Griffin has won re-election. We congratulate Mr. Griffin on this achievement. Meanwhile, Labor also holds a strong lead in the House, though the tide could quickly turn as opposition votes stream in.

In the heavily contested Lincoln Senate election, incumbent Laborite Tack50 currently holds exactly 50% of the vote, but with many Poirot voters giving Cao a second-preference, Tack may need to improve if he wants to hold his Senate seat. Meanwhile, Peacenik Razze has taken a lead in the Southern Senate election, but due to the disproportionate Labor vote in so far in Dixie, CIP still believes Federalist Senator LouisvilleThunder is heavily favored for re-election.

Lastly, we turn to local elections. In the Southern gubernatorial race, incumbent Laborite TimTurner holds a commanding lead, but as we mentioned earlier, the electorate is too Labor-leaning to draw many conclusions - thus, Federalist Rep. Spark remains favored to pick up the seat. In the Chamber, it appears unlikely that Federalists will be able to win three seats at the moment - so, CIP expects a chamber divided between Laborites, Federalists, and the DAer former president tmth. Meanwhile in Lincoln, Labor appears favored to win the Council (assuming they can get votes for S019), with Brother Jonathan and Liberal Ishan currently in position to round out the legislative body.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I'm not a write-in for CoD. I'm on the ballot

[OBD]

I'm not a write-in for CoD. I'm on the ballot

Oh, I misread. Sorry!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

[Continential]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

Labor pushes non-incumbents first, especially if it's their first race.

[The Dowager Mod]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

Because I'm f***ing special.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

Because I'm f***ing special.

You are certainly special, but Adam Griffin?

[Continential]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

Because I'm f***ing special.

You are certainly special, but Adam Griffin?

He is the embodiment of Labor.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

Because I'm f***ing special.

You are certainly special, but Adam Griffin?

He is the embodiment of Labor.

I haven't been on here enough to be into those sorts of things.

[Continential]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

Because I'm f***ing special.

You are certainly special, but Adam Griffin?

He is the embodiment of Labor.

I haven't been on here enough to be into those sorts of things.

So basically, he was someone who expanded the party, the Labor Party survived while the Liberal Party who had the old machine, (not related to the current liberal party except for a zombie who registered in 2013), died. He was President and won in a 65-35 environment read the in game "Biographies" of the person who challenged him 1, and while Labor declined and after Weatherboy's Presidency when he was inactive, and after a victory by the Federalist ticket, and the next nominee being the discord "cult leader" YT, Adam Griffin came back after the WE WANT GRIFF! draft movement and defeated YT in a close upset.

[Sestak]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

Highest name rec, it's about what you'd expect. Actually surprised TG isn't outrunning the slate by more (though obviously it's still early).


Also I must say to OBD that your ratings confuse me a little bit. Your House numbers have non-Labor House candidates only barely overperforming the Ninja ticket (30-16 in presidential, 29-18 for House), yet your ratings both say that MB is (reasonably strongly) favored but also that the House is more likely than not to be split. Are you expecting MB to overperform the downballot slate in the remaining vote by more than he has in the vote thus far?

[OBD]

The two non-incumbents (Adam Griffin and TexasGurl) have the most first votes how

Highest name rec, it's about what you'd expect. Actually surprised TG isn't outrunning the slate by more (though obviously it's still early).


Also I must say to OBD that your ratings confuse me a little bit. Your House numbers have non-Labor House candidates only barely overperforming the Ninja ticket (30-16 in presidential, 29-18 for House), yet your ratings both say that MB is (reasonably strongly) favored but also that the House is more likely than not to be split. Are you expecting MB to overperform the downballot slate in the remaining vote by more than he has in the vote thus far?

My ratings aren't exactly based on statistics - it's more based on my gut feeling of the race. My initial prediction was that Labor would win 4 House seats despite MB winning, and not enough results are in for me to back down completely on that prediction yet. At this point, I'm expecting MB to win by a modest margin while Labor falls just short of 5 seats, but if the current results hold I'll alter my projections accordingly.

It's probably just leftover bad vibes from August, TBH.

[OBD]

Presidential Election (53/185) 29% reporting
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 33 votes 62.26%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 17 32.08%
Southern Delegate KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) / Census Lady Peebs (P-NC) (write-in): 2 3.77%
Other: 1 1.89%

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 35 votes 67.31%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 17 32.69%
Last Vote Counted: Donnerail

Current Prediction: 80% Chance of MB Win

House Election (53/185) 29% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 34 votes 64.15%
- FalterinArc (L-WA) 2 votes
- SevenEleven (L-CA) 6 votes
- AdamGriffin (L-Scotland) 15 votes ✓
- Razze (P-FL) 5 votes
- TexasGurl (I-NY) 6 votes
Federalist Slate: 11 votes 20.75%
- Joseph Cao (F-IL) 6 votes
- Spark498 (F-FL)
- Jessica (F-MS)
- WestMidlander (F-NC) 5 votes
Democratic Aliance Slate: 4 votes 7.55%
- beeman (DA-IL) 4 votes
Liberal Slate: 3 votes 5.66%
- Poirot (LIB - NY) 3 votes
Independent Slate: 1 vote 1.89%
- Battista Minola (I-NM) (write-in) 1 votes
Last Vote Counted: Donnerail
Current Quota: 6 _{= floor(53/10)+1}

Current Prediction: 55% Chance of Labor-Peace Majority 45% Chance of Hung House

Lincoln Senate Election (20/70) 29% reporting
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 10 votes 50%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 5 votes 25%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 5 votes 25%
Last Vote Counted: JGibson
Invalid Votes: Winfield(x2), UBI Man Good (x2)

Current Prediction: 53% chance of Tack Win 43% chance of Cao Win

Southern Senate Election (15/70) 21% reporting
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida) 8 votes 53.33%
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky) 5 votes 33.33%
Other: 2 votes 13.33%
Last Vote Counted: West_Midlander

Current Prediction: 94% chance of LT Win

Southern Gubernatorial Election (15/70) 21% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 10 votes 66.67%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 4 votes 28.57%
Other: 1 votes 7.14%

Current Prediction: 55% Chance of Spark Win

Southern Chamber Election (15/70) 21% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 7 votes 46.67%
- TimTurner (L-TX) 2 votes
- KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) 5 votes
Federalist Slate: 4 votes 26.67%
- Ben Kenobi (F-TX) 1 votes
- DTC (F-GA) 2 votes
- reaganete (F-MO) 1 votes
Democratic Alliance Slate: 4 votes 26.67%
- tmthforu94 (DA-KS) 3 votes
- weatherboy1102 (DA-SC) 1 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: Donnerail

Current Prediction: 95% Chance of Hung Chamber

Lincoln Council Election (20/70) 29% reporting (5 councilors elected)

Labor Slate: 11 votes 55%
- S019 (L-NJ)
- Wulfric (L-PA) 4 votes
- Elcaspar (L-MI) 7 votes
Liberal Slate: 5 votes 25%
- Ishan (LIB-PA) 5 votes
Federalist Slate: 4 votes 20%
- Brother Jonathan (F-VT) 3 votes
- lwp2004 (F-CT)
- thr33 (F-NY) 1 vote
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: JGibson

Current Prediction: 78% Chance of Labor Majority

As the clock turns to Saturday on the East Coast, only 48 hours remain in Atlasia's October Elections. And after the initial cluster of votes, voting seems to have tapered off throughout the day, as only around 30% of votes have been reported nationally (a thin 7% increase since midday).

Without much results to go off of, we at the CIP Election Tracker must resort to speculation. Let's start off with the race at the top of the ticket, where Vice President MB is performing unexpectedly well. While CIP still expects the opposition to begin dumping votes in earnest tomorrow (in fact, since the last update, the MB-Ninja new vote ratio has been far more closely divided), MB maintains a strong lead with a little over 62% of the vote (and a commanding 67% total in the final round). While it's likely the current electorate tilts towards Labor, this lead seems difficult for the DAer Ninja to overcome - hence, we've upgraded MB's victory chances to 80%. In another story, Peacenik Koopa is severely underperforming exit polls, though with all prospective Koopa voters being active players this is to be expected.

Meanwhile in the House, Labor continues to hold a commanding lead with 64% of the vote - again, we expect this to tighten as more votes come in over Saturday and Sunday. While Rep. FalterinArc is currently lagging behind the slate, Rep.(-elect) Adam Griffin is running surprisingly far ahead of it - falling just 2-4 votes behind the predicted quota on the first day of voting. Meanwhile, as just 4 serious opposition candidates are on the board, Labor winning the House seems like the likeliest outcome, though we're holding off on outright favoring them until more votes are in.

In the two competitive Senate races, Labor leads in both, though both races are expected to tighten. Senator Tack50 of Lincoln still leads his opponents with exactly 50% of the vote, though in a surprising twist, Liberal Poirot is in a tie with Federalist Rep. Joseph Cao. As Poirot and Cao's voters nearly universally preferenced the other, Tack is nowhere near safe at this juncture, and this race will go down to the wire. In the South, Peacenik Razze holds a narrow lead, which is expected to evaporate as Federalist votes come in.

In regional elections, Labor appears to be outperforming expectations as well - Governor TimTurner of the South has held a robust lead over Federalist Rep. Spark (which again, will likely close over the next few days), while the Labor-Peace coalition appears poised to win Lincoln's Council and come close in the South. Time will tell if this will hold.

In summary, while many expected this election to be a continuation of the anti-Labor surge that began in the August midterms, the results so far indicate that a reprise of Labor's dominant June landslide could be in the cards as well. The future of Atlasia will be decided in the next 48 hours, so stay tuned.

[OBD]

CIP has a major projection to make. With 30% of the vote in, we are now projecting that Senator Louisville Thunder (Federalist-Kentucky) has been re-elected!

Southern Senate Election (21/70) 30% reporting
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky) 10 votes 47.62% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida) 9 votes 42.86%
Other: 2 votes 9.52%

While it is still early in the race, we at CIP have noted significant crossover support for the incumbent, and with the registration numbers in the South favoring Federalists, we are confident that LT will win re-election. Congratulations!

[OBD]

Hello, everyone! I'm excited to announce the launch of a new CIP tool - the Experimental Vote Predictor. Below is a description of the EVP and what it does.

Experimental Vote Predictor (South Only)

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern elections.

updated 1:08 PM PST

Southern Senate Election
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky) 34 votes 48.11% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida) 30 votes 42.37%
Other: 7 votes 9.52%

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 40 votes 56.65%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 27 votes 38.59%
Other: 3 votes 4.76%

Interestingly, the EVP believes that the current electorate actually leans disproportionately towards the Federalist Party, and creates its final predictions accordingly. As election weekend goes on, the EVP will continue to be refined and improved, and I'm excited to see how accurate its projections will end up being. 

[OBD]

Presidential Election (70/185) 38% reporting
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 37 votes 52.86%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 29 41.43%
Southern Delegate KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) / Census Lady Peebs (P-NC) (write-in): 3 4.29%
Other: 1 1.43%

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 40 votes 57.97%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 29 42.03%
Last Vote Counted: westroopnerd

Current Prediction: 70% Chance of MB Win

House Election (70/185) 38% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 41 votes 58.57%
- FalterinArc (L-WA) 3 votes
- SevenEleven (L-CA) 7 votes
- AdamGriffin (L-Scotland) 16 votes ✓
- Razze (P-FL) 8 votes
- TexasGurl (I-NY) 7 votes
Federalist Slate: 20 votes 28.57%
- Joseph Cao (F-IL) 7 votes
- Spark498 (F-FL) 1 votes
- Jessica (F-MS) 5 votes
- WestMidlander (F-NC) 7 votes
Democratic Aliance Slate: 5 votes 7.14%
- beeman (DA-IL) 5 votes
Liberal Slate: 3 votes 4.29%
- Poirot (LIB - NY) 3 votes
Independent Slate: 1 vote 1.43%
- Battista Minola (I-NM) (write-in) 1 votes
Last Vote Counted: westroopnerd
Current Quota: 7 _{= floor(68/10)+1}

Current Prediction: 57% Chance of Labor-Peace Majority 43% Chance of Hung House

Frémont Senate Election (23/45) 51% reporting
Senator Devout Centrist (Labor-Arizona): 15 votes 65.22% ✓
Fmr. MP AustralianSwingVoter (Democratic Alliance-Washington) (write-in): 8 votes 34.78%
Last Vote Counted: IndyRep

Lincoln Senate Election (26/70) 37% reporting
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 13 votes 50%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 7 votes 26.92%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 6 votes 23.08%
Last Vote Counted: Blairite
Invalid Votes: Winfield(x2), UBI Man Good (x2)

Current Prediction: 49% chance of Tack Win 49% chance of Cao Win

Southern Senate Election (24/70) 34% reporting
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky) 13 votes 54.17% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida) 9 votes 37.5%
Other: 2 votes 8.33%
Last Vote Counted: Jessica
Invalid: PragPop

Southern Gubernatorial Election (24/70) 34% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 13 votes 54.17%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 10 votes 41.67%
Other: 1 votes 4.17%

Current Prediction: 58% Chance of Spark Win

Southern Chamber Election (23/70) 33% reporting

Federalist Slate: 11 votes 45.83%
- Ben Kenobi (F-TX) 1 votes
- DTC (F-GA) 4 votes
- reaganete (F-MO) 6 votes
Labor-Peace Slate: 9 votes 37.5%
- TimTurner (L-TX) 4 votes
- KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) 5 votes
Democratic Alliance Slate: 4 votes 16.67%
- tmthforu94 (DA-KS) 3 votes
- weatherboy1102 (DA-SC) 1 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: Jessica

Current Prediction: 90% Chance of Hung Chamber

Lincoln Council Election (26/70) 37% reporting (5 councilors elected)

Labor Slate: 14 votes 53.85%
- S019 (L-NJ)
- Wulfric (L-PA) 6 votes
- Elcaspar (L-MI) 8 votes
Federalist Slate: 6 votes 23.08%
- Brother Jonathan (F-VT) 4 votes
- lwp2004 (F-CT)
- thr33 (F-NY) 2 votes
Liberal Slate: 6 votes 23.08%
- Ishan (LIB-PA) 5 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: Blairite

Current Prediction: 75% Chance of Labor Majority

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor (Marquee Races Only)

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern elections.

updated 4:20 PM PST

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 101 votes 55.65%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 81 votes 44.35%

House Election
Labor-Peace Slate: 104 votes 56.28%
Federalist Slate: 60 votes 32.6%
Democratic Alliance Slate: 12 votes 6.48%
Liberal Slate: 6 votes 3.21%
Other: 3 votes 1.43%

Southern Senate Election
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky): 34 votes 48.75% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida): 30 votes 42.55%
Other: 6 votes 8.7%

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 42 votes 59.94%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 25 votes 35.71%
Other: 3 votes 4.76%

Lincoln Senate Election: Final Round
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 38 votes 54.77%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 32 votes 45.23%

It's turning to evening on the day before polls close, so let's take a look at how competitive elections across Atlasia look. Since the previous update, many developments have occurred, most of them in favor of the opposition. Additionally, our EVP model is now up for all marquee races, so we'll be using it to analyze the results in thus far.

Let's start on the top of the ticket. With 38% of the vote reporting, MB's lead has significantly narrowed, with the Ninja/LT ticket pulling to within 11 points - a major turnaround from the 30-point thumping they were receiving earlier. CIP attributes this to opposition voters turning out more on Saturday, but the EVP model believes that Ninja still has room to grow (he is projected to narrow the margin by another 4 points). However, MB is still favored in this race unless there is a significant turnout disparity in favor of the opposition.

Moving on to House, where Labor continues to hold a commanding 59% share of votes and appears to be in robust position to retain a 5-4 House majority. However, the current electorate still favors Labor slightly, so the EVP projects that Labor's vote share will decline slightly to 56% (which is still more than enough to win the House majority). Looking deeper into the results, it appears Liberal candidate Poirot is unlikely to win a House seat, while DA candidate beeman could be in trouble if Federalist/Liberal preferences don't work out well for them.

As for downballot races, EVP shows a surprisingly strong Labor performance in the South is possible, with Governor TimTurner winning comfortably and Senator LouisvilleThunder just scraping by against Rep. Razze. CIP does not believe that Labor will do this well, however, and as more Federalist votes come in the EVP model is likely to adjust accordingly. In the competitive Lincoln Senate race, meanwhile, Tack appears to be narrowly favored over Rep. Joseph Cao at this juncture.

 

[OBD]

Presidential Election (77/185) 41% reporting
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 40 votes 51.95%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 32 votes 41.56%
Southern Delegate KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) / Census Lady Peebs (P-NC) (write-in): 4 votes 5.19%
Other: 1 votes 1.43%

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 43 votes 57.33%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 32 votes 42.67%
Last Vote Counted: Pyro

Current Prediction: 65% Chance of MB Win

House Election (77/185) 41% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 45 votes 58.44%
- FalterinArc (L-WA) 5 votes
- SevenEleven (L-CA) 7 votes
- AdamGriffin (L-Scotland) 16 votes ✓
- Razze (P-FL) 10 votes
- TexasGurl (I-NY) 7 votes
Federalist Slate: 23 votes 29.87%
- Joseph Cao (F-IL) 8 votes
- Spark498 (F-FL) 1 votes
- Jessica (F-MS) 7 votes
- WestMidlander (F-NC) 7 votes
Democratic Aliance Slate: 5 votes 6.49%
- beeman (DA-IL) 5 votes
Liberal Slate: 3 votes 3.9%
- Poirot (LIB - NY) 3 votes
Independent Slate: 1 vote 1.3%
- Battista Minola (I-NM) (write-in) 1 votes
Last Vote Counted: Pyro
Current Quota: 8 _{= floor(77/10)+1}

Current Prediction: 60% Chance of Labor-Peace Majority 40% Chance of Hung House

Frémont Senate Election (23/45) 51% reporting
Senator Devout Centrist (Labor-Arizona): 15 votes 65.22% ✓
Fmr. MP AustralianSwingVoter (Democratic Alliance-Washington) (write-in): 8 votes 34.78%
Last Vote Counted: IndyRep

Lincoln Senate Election (29/70) 41% reporting
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 16 votes 55.17%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 7 votes 24.14%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 6 votes 20.69%
Last Vote Counted: Pyro
Invalid Votes: Winfield(x2), UBI Man Good (x2)

Current Prediction: 53% chance of Tack Win 45% chance of Cao Win

Southern Senate Election (28/70) 40% reporting
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky) 16 votes 57.14% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida) 10 votes 35.71%
Other: 2 votes 7.14%
Last Vote Counted: HillGoose
Invalid: PragPop

Southern Gubernatorial Election (28/70) 40% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 14 votes 50%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 13 votes 46.43%
Other: 1 votes 3.57%

Current Prediction: 65% Chance of Spark Win

Southern Chamber Election (28/70) 40% reporting

Federalist Slate: 14 votes 50%
- Ben Kenobi (F-TX) 1 votes
- DTC (F-GA) 4 votes
- reaganete (F-MO) 9 votes
Labor-Peace Slate: 10 votes 35.71%
- TimTurner (L-TX) 5 votes
- KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) 5 votes
Democratic Alliance Slate: 4 votes 14.29%
- tmthforu94 (DA-KS) 3 votes
- weatherboy1102 (DA-SC) 1 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: Hillgoose

Current Prediction: 85% Chance of Hung Chamber

Lincoln Council Election (29/70) 41% reporting (5 councilors elected)

Labor Slate: 16 votes 55.17%
- S019 (L-NJ) 1 votes
- Wulfric (L-PA) 6 votes
- Elcaspar (L-MI) 9 votes
Federalist Slate: 7 votes 24.14%
- Brother Jonathan (F-VT) 5 votes
- lwp2004 (F-CT)
- thr33 (F-NY) 2 votes
Liberal Slate: 6 votes 20.69%
- Ishan (LIB-PA) 5 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: Pyro

Current Prediction: 80% Chance of Labor Majority

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor (Marquee Races Only)

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern elections.

updated 8:33 PM PST

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 99 votes 55.12%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 81 votes 44.88%

House Election
Labor-Peace Slate: 104 votes 56.29%
Federalist Slate: 61 votes 33.07%
Democratic Alliance Slate: 12 votes 6.45%
Liberal Slate: 5 votes 2.88%
Other: 2 votes 1.3%

Southern Senate Election
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky): 37 votes 52.28% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida): 28 votes 40.57%
Other: 5 votes 7.14%

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 38 votes 54.86%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 29 votes 41.57%
Other: 2 votes 4.76%

Lincoln Senate Election: Final Round
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 41 votes 58.31%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 29 votes 41.69%

Results on Saturday Night.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Cool model! When will we get an update?

[OBD]

Cool model! When will we get an update?

I am busy today, so don't expect an update until 3-4 PM PST. Sorry.

[OBD]

Presidential Election (106/185) 57% reporting
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 58 votes 54.72%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 43 votes 40.57%
Southern Delegate KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) / Census Lady Peebs (P-NC) (write-in): 4 votes 3.77%
Other: 1 votes 0.94%

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 61 votes 58.65%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 43 votes 41.35%
Last Vote Counted: MB
Invalid: DemocraticHawk, Bomster, NeederNodder, Talleyrand

Current Prediction: 75% Chance of MB Win

House Election (106/185) 57% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 63 votes 59.43%
- FalterinArc (L-WA) 13 votes ✓
- SevenEleven (L-CA) 10 votes
- AdamGriffin (L-Scotland) 18 votes ✓
- Razze (P-FL) 12 votes ✓
- TexasGurl (I-NY) 10 votes
Federalist Slate: 31 votes 29.25%
- Joseph Cao (F-IL) 8 votes
- Spark498 (F-FL) 2 votes
- Jessica (F-MS) 12 votes ✓
- WestMidlander (F-NC) 9 votes
Democratic Aliance Slate: 7 votes 6.6%
- beeman (DA-IL) 7 votes
Liberal Slate: 4 votes 3.77%
- Poirot (LIB - NY) 4 votes
Independent Slate: 1 vote 0.94%
- Battista Minola (I-NM) (write-in) 1 votes
Last Vote Counted: MB
Current Quota: 11 _{= floor(106/10)+1}

Current Prediction: 78% Chance of Labor-Peace Majority 22% Chance of Hung House

Frémont Senate Election (23/45) 51% reporting
Senator Devout Centrist (Labor-Arizona): 15 votes 65.22% ✓
Fmr. MP AustralianSwingVoter (Democratic Alliance-Washington) (write-in): 8 votes 34.78%
Last Vote Counted: IndyRep

Lincoln Senate Election (47/70) 67% reporting
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 29 votes 61.7%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 9 votes 19.15%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 9 votes 19.15%
Last Vote Counted: Poirot
Invalid Votes: Winfield(x2), UBI Man Good (x2)

Current Prediction: 75% chance of Tack Win 15% chance of Cao Win10% chance of Poirot Win

Southern Senate Election (42/70) 60% reporting
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky) 21 votes 50% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida) 19 votes 45.24%
Other: 2 votes 4.76%
Last Vote Counted: Fairbol
Invalid: PragPop

Southern Gubernatorial Election (42/70) 60% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 22 votes 52.38%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 18 votes 42.86%
Other/Didn't Vote: 2 votes 4.76%

Current Prediction: 55% Chance of Spark Win

Southern Chamber Election (42/70) 60% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 19 votes 45.24%
- TimTurner (L-TX) 8 votes ✓
- KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) 11 votes ✓
Federalist Slate: 18 votes 42.86%
- Ben Kenobi (F-TX) 1 votes
- DTC (F-GA) 5 votes
- reaganete (F-MO) 12 votes ✓
Democratic Alliance Slate: 5 votes 11.9%
- tmthforu94 (DA-KS) 4 votes
- weatherboy1102 (DA-SC) 1 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: FairBol

Current Prediction: 95% Chance of Hung Chamber

Lincoln Council Election (47/70) 67% reporting (5 councilors elected)

Labor Slate: 27 votes 57.45%
- S019 (L-NJ) 9 votes ✓
- Wulfric (L-PA) 7 votes
- Elcaspar (L-MI) 11 votes ✓
Liberal Slate: 10 votes 21.28%
- Ishan (LIB-PA) 10 votes ✓
Federalist Slate: 10 votes 21.28%
- Brother Jonathan (F-VT) 8 votes ✓
- lwp2004 (F-CT)
- thr33 (F-NY) 2 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: Poirot

Current Prediction: 97% Chance of Labor Majority

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor (Marquee Races Only)

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern elections.

updated 3:57 PM PST

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 102 votes 56.26%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 79 votes 43.74%

House Election
Labor-Peace Slate: 105 votes 57%
Federalist Slate: 58 votes 31.17%
Democratic Alliance Slate: 13 votes 7%
Liberal Slate: 7 votes 3.88%
Other: 2 votes 0.94%

Southern Senate Election
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky): 35 votes 50.36% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida): 31 votes 44.88%
Other: 4 votes 4.76%

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 36 votes 52.02%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 30 votes 43.22%
Other: 3 votes 4.76%

Lincoln Senate Election: Final Round
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 46 votes 65.29%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 24 votes 34.71%

Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 43 votes 61.03%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 27 votes 38.97%

Just 5 hours remain for Atlasians to vote, and the CIP has called multiple seats, which you can see above. We congratulate Rep.-elects FalterinArc, Razze, and Jessica, Chamber(wo)man-elects TimTurner, KoopaDaQuick, and reaganete, and councillor-elects S019, Elcaspar, Brother Jonathan, and Ishan.

[The Dowager Mod]

I got #1 preferences from Ilikeverin and Virginia so it's all good no matter how it turns out.  

[OBD]

I got #! preferences from Ilikeverin and Virginia so it's all good no matter how it turns out. 

I mean, you'll probably win. I'm just holding off till you make quota to call your race.

[OBD]

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 69 votes 59.74% ✓
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 46 votes 40.26%
Last Vote Counted: BRTD
Invalid: DemocraticHawk, Bomster, NeederNodder, Talleyrand

...I've seen enough.

With 63% of the vote in, CIP now projects the Presidential election for Vice President MB and Senator TedBessell. Congrats to the President-elect and the Vice President-elect!

Lincoln Senate Election (49/70) 70% reporting
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 31 votes 63.27% ✓
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 9 votes 18.37%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 9 votes 18.37%
Last Vote Counted: Gorguf
Invalid Votes: Winfield(x2), UBI Man Good (x2)

We have also called the Lincoln Senate Election and multiple Representative slots. Congrats to Senator-elect Tack, Representative-elects West Midlander and SevenEleven, and Councillor-elect Wulfric !