IA--Scott Rasmussen Greenfield +3
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Author Topic: IA--Scott Rasmussen Greenfield +3  (Read 1072 times)
DINGO Joe
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« on: October 23, 2020, 11:08:33 AM »



He has turnout models that go from tied to Greenfield +7
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 11:09:09 AM »

Ernst will give D's 51 seats
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 11:11:33 AM »

Nice to see a poll with Greenfield in the lead again, though I really don't like IA polls with high numbers of undecides
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WD
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 11:12:27 AM »

Greenfield is slightly favored IMO, but this isnít Lean D, unlike what a certain someone thinks.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 11:29:46 AM »

Greenfield is slightly favored IMO, but this isnít Lean D, unlike what a certain someone thinks.

Thanks for reading the Crystal Ball!
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 11:39:10 AM »

Would definitely like to see what the presidential numbers are here, but still keeping this as Tilt R for now.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 01:44:28 PM »

October 15-19
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

In all models:
Some other candidate 3%
Unsure 7%

Strong Democratic Turnout:
Greenfield 48%
Ernst 41%

Strong Republican Turnout:
Ernst 45%
Greenfield 45%
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 02:44:21 PM »

Would definitely like to see what the presidential numbers are here, but still keeping this as Tilt R for now.

The presidential race is tied at 47-47.

Ah, thanks. Well, a poll showing Greenfield overperforming Biden is good news for her, but I'd need to see a Selzer poll (really hoping we get one more before the election) showing her with a bigger lead than +3 to consider changing my prediction.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 05:22:08 PM »

Slightly reassuring?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 05:29:47 PM »

Greenfield is slightly favored IMO, but this isnít Lean D, unlike what a certain someone thinks.

I think they know better than you.
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WD
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 05:34:24 PM »

Greenfield is slightly favored IMO, but this isnít Lean D, unlike what a certain someone thinks.

I think they know better than you.

If Greenfield ends up winning by 5 or so, and does better than Cunningham or Bullock, Iíll gladly admit I was wrong. But given IAís history, I feel that this is more of a tossup race.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2020, 02:47:47 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by RMG Research on 2020-10-19

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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