WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Barnes is in
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  WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Barnes is in
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Author Topic: WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Barnes is in  (Read 11496 times)
Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #225 on: July 12, 2021, 09:58:34 PM »

Wisconsin seems like a fairly intelligent state.  Why do they put up with this nut job?  Aren't the residents embarrassed by him?

He was Elected at the same time Scott Walker was in 2010, and he didn't  align himself so tightly to Trump until Insurrectionists
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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #226 on: July 13, 2021, 09:50:37 AM »

Wisconsin seems like a fairly intelligent state.  Why do they put up with this nut job?  Aren't the residents embarrassed by him?

Wisconsin is an extremely divided state where results pretty much come down to turnout. Johnson ran in favorable years for his party, which 2022 seems more likely than not to be.
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redjohn
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« Reply #227 on: July 13, 2021, 10:04:29 AM »

Midterms curse is going to make this seat difficult to flip for either Barnes or Godlewski. Both are good candidates, Barnes seems to have more obvious baggage but Godlewski is relatively unknown in the state and could be extremely damaged by any GOP-run propaganda. Look at what happened to Feingold, a previously respected and former U.S. Senator, in the last weeks of the 2016 campaign.

These candidates are both excellent individuals (and some of the other candidates are quite good on a local level as well), but they aren't candidates who have the special quality to win against Johnson in a midterm.

Everything you say is correct, but I wonder if RJ has shot himself in the foot with his comments since last year.

I'm unfortunately much more pessimistic on the future for Dems we have in WI. Dane's growth is promising, and Milwaukee continuing to trend D is nice, but I'm worried that the entire strategy hinges on suburban trends that may or may not be able to make up for Dems losing support in nearly all of the western part of the state. It doesn't really feel like winning when a Democrat just barely wins with only seven counties, which seems to be where things are headed.

Barnes lying about his college degree is something unexpected to me that will certainly hurt his prospects, despite how seemingly unimportant the issue is. If Godlewski is the nominee, there seems to be another potential scandal of her campaign misleading people about her having a master's degree. Also the fact that she lived in DC right up until moving back to WI to run for treasurer: that alone could be a campaign-ender in the general.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #228 on: July 13, 2021, 10:49:52 AM »

Wisconsin seems like a fairly intelligent state.  Why do they put up with this nut job?  Aren't the residents embarrassed by him?

Wisconsin is an extremely divided state where results pretty much come down to turnout. Johnson ran in favorable years for his party, which 2022 seems more likely than not to be.

Biden approvals are 52/48 the same Approvals on Election night, the only reason why Ds are underdogs in the H is because in 2020 we had 230 seats  not 220 the only polls in this state was 48/44 Evers and Nelson, stop saying WI is leaning R and Tammy Baldwin won by 10 pts
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #229 on: July 13, 2021, 12:21:38 PM »

Mandela Barnes is gonna win this race, he won blue colla D's Ras Lt Gov, it will be interesting to see if Obama campaign for any S
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DTC
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« Reply #230 on: July 13, 2021, 12:52:29 PM »

Wisconsin seems like a fairly intelligent state.  Why do they put up with this nut job?  Aren't the residents embarrassed by him?

Wisconsin is an extremely divided state where results pretty much come down to turnout. Johnson ran in favorable years for his party, which 2022 seems more likely than not to be.


I think this analysis is completely incorrect. In 2018, Tony Evers barely won whereas Tammy Baldwin substantially overperformed his performance. Wisconsin voters seem to be the definition of swing voters. Ron Kind also has substantial overperformances. If Wisconsin "pretty much came down to turnout", you would not see candidates doing substantially different in the same election cycle.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #231 on: July 13, 2021, 01:05:40 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2021, 01:09:13 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

2022 isn't an R favorable environment when Biden is at 52 percent and typically like Trump a Prez party loses seats in Midterms at 44 this per Gallup

D's are up nine pts in AZ, CO, PA and up 48/44 in WI that's not an R wave when Rs haven't lead in a single poll but FL and MO and NH is 4 mnths old already

Trump lost the H when he was a 45 percent Prez

That's why James Carville has put his input on MO and Jay Nixon, he is actively recruiting candidates, he said from say one before cycle he would recruit Demings and we haven't seen any polls outside that inflated 20 pts, Rs are the Favs in Red states but upsets happens
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #232 on: July 13, 2021, 04:29:29 PM »

It doesn't really feel like winning when a Democrat just barely wins with only seven counties, which seems to be where things are headed.

Welcome to the wonderful world of rural/urban polarization!  Here in PA, we have a population 223% the size of WI, and Biden won 13 of 67 counties when barely winning statewide.  It's rather depressing to be a rural Dem these days.    Sad
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #233 on: July 13, 2021, 04:33:57 PM »

Rs are favs in IA and OH, but D's are favs in WI, 1 Election where Hillary lost the state and Rs assume WI is ah R state and it has vote for every D Prez except Kennedy including Gore, Dukakis, and Kerry losers
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Drew
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« Reply #234 on: July 15, 2021, 05:31:57 PM »

Johnson fundraising update:

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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #235 on: July 15, 2021, 05:48:44 PM »

I like Mandela, I hope he wins
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #236 on: July 15, 2021, 07:08:24 PM »

Johnson's certainly fundraising as though he is running. Lean R either way.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #237 on: July 20, 2021, 08:29:43 AM »

https://apnews.com/article/government-and-politics-wisconsin-senate-elections-election-2020-874003bb009ecf23441d19955a496c84

Barnes is in
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #238 on: July 20, 2021, 09:07:00 AM »

Johnson's certainly fundraising as though he is running. Lean R either way.

Rassy tracking polls show that Biden is at the same exact Approvals as he was on Election night meaning WI Leanss D the only polls out of WI had it 48/44 unless we see a PPP showing D's loosing WI it's a Lean D state

It's funny to me users can trust Sununu up by six and in the same time frame Nelson and Evers were up 48/44
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I'm a (leaning towards) Malcolm Kenyatta Democrat
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« Reply #239 on: July 20, 2021, 09:26:08 AM »


Welp, that just made it tougher for me to pick a candidate in this race.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #240 on: July 20, 2021, 09:38:53 AM »

Barnes will win
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #241 on: July 21, 2021, 09:28:22 AM »

Will the Bucks Victory make any difference to this race given that their vice president Alex Lasryis running ?
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I'm a (leaning towards) Malcolm Kenyatta Democrat
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« Reply #242 on: July 21, 2021, 10:28:23 AM »

Will the Bucks Victory make any difference to this race given that their vice president Alex Lasryis running ?

No
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #243 on: July 21, 2021, 12:29:44 PM »

What baggage does Barnes have?
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #244 on: July 21, 2021, 12:42:20 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2021, 12:46:16 PM by Mr. Kanye West »

Will the Bucks Victory make any difference to this race given that their vice president Alex Lasryis running ?

D's are already favored to win WI and PA, we have zero polls in IA, OH and NC but Biden Approvals are tracking the same as they are on Election night 53/39% now and 51/46%, on Election night, which is a 304 map, a 52/48 Sen and a 218/217 H map is plausible but everything including GA Sen runoff must go right in H for D's in Redistricting pending the Report from the Jan 6th Commission, bit a 217 tie and Lynn Cheney not voting McCarthy Speaker can put D's back in Speakers chair

OH can be won but this is an R seat not a D seat where Brown and Tester would be favored in 2024, if the Election were held today Beasley and Ryan would lose by the same margin Biden lost those states by and FL, DeSantis received a bump from Surfside, he nor Rubio are loosing
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #245 on: July 21, 2021, 01:53:25 PM »

Milwaukee Alderman Chantia Lewis has joined the race. Probably would do better statewide then Barnes but doesn't have the resume as a one term inner city alderman.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #246 on: July 21, 2021, 02:05:07 PM »

Barnes Is gonna win
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Crogers
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« Reply #247 on: July 22, 2021, 12:53:37 AM »
« Edited: July 22, 2021, 07:06:48 AM by Crogers »

Barnes is a socialist. Zero chance he wins.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #248 on: July 22, 2021, 03:17:46 AM »

Milwaukee Alderman Chantia Lewis has joined the race. Probably would do better statewide then Barnes but doesn't have the resume as a one term inner city alderman.
She should really be running for Lt. Governor to succeed Barnes.
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LVScreenssuck
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« Reply #249 on: July 23, 2021, 11:30:19 PM »

Honestly, being a scary black guy from Milwaukee
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