WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/robillard/status/1437763606993686532?s=21

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://twitter.com/robillard/status/1437763606993686532?s=21

YESSSSS

[UWS]

That endorsement by Warren will just show extreme Barnes is. He will repeatedly tied to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and socialist policies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes got elected as LT Gov, we haven't seen any polls since March

Johnson praised the Proud Boys thats extreme

[UWS]

Barnes got elected as LT Gov, we haven't seen any polls since March[/b]

Johnson praised the Proud Boys thats extreme

That is before the Dems voted in favor of that $3.5 trillion of new spending, before gas prices raised at their highest since 2014, that rising inflation, that drastic rise of consumer price index, Defund the Police.

The moreover that just last month, the gubernatorial administration which Barnes is working for vetoed a bill that would have penalized cities and counties that defund police departments. So Barnes is a puppet of the radical Defund the Police movement.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-vetoes-bill-that-would-have-penalized-cities-counties-that-defund-police-departments/article_30125a78-7312-53d1-9972-9b16e305d008.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes got elected as LT Gov, we haven't seen any polls since March[/b]

Johnson praised the Proud Boys thats extreme

That is before the Dems voted in favor of that $3.5 trillion of new spending, before gas prices raised at their highest since 2014, that rising inflation, that drastic rise of consumer price index, Defund the Police.

The moreover that just last month, the gubernatorial administration which Barnes is working for vetoed a bill that would have penalized cities and counties that defund police departments. So Barnes is a puppet of the radical Defund the Police movement.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-vetoes-bill-that-would-have-penalized-cities-counties-that-defund-police-departments/article_30125a78-7312-53d1-9972-9b16e305d008.html

The 3.5 T helps Seniors on Medicare and 1000 vouchers for Dentures, anyways it's going nna be chopped to 2.5 T anyways buts it's not a Detriment

[Lognog]

why is Barnes so un-electable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

why is Barnes so un-electable

He's not, there hasn't been any polls since March

[Xing]

why is Barnes so un-electable

Something something too far left (for a state that elected and re-elected Tammy Baldwin.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs want Larry Elder but they can't stomach Barnes, we haven't seen any polls but Nelson and Evers were leading

48/44

The only Mav I can stomach Is Michael Steele who will be next Gov if he runs

[Devils30]

That endorsement by Warren will just show extreme Barnes is. He will repeatedly tied to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and socialist policies.

Everything she touches is a problem, from her DNA to endorsements like Maya Wiley. Dems should pick a better candidate here and Lamb in PA. Have the DSCC endorse Beasley in NC who is better positioned to take advantage of demographics.

[SnowLabrador]

That endorsement by Warren will just show extreme Barnes is. He will repeatedly tied to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and socialist policies.

Everything she touches is a problem, from her DNA to endorsements like Maya Wiley. Dems should pick a better candidate here and Lamb in PA. Have the DSCC endorse Beasley in NC who is better positioned to take advantage of demographics.

Beasley sucks, she supports the filibuster.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That endorsement by Warren will just show extreme Barnes is. He will repeatedly tied to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and socialist policies.

Everything she touches is a problem, from her DNA to endorsements like Maya Wiley. Dems should pick a better candidate here and Lamb in PA. Have the DSCC endorse Beasley in NC who is better positioned to take advantage of demographics.

Beasley sucks, she supports the filibuster.

The Filibuster is gonna remain, if D's retain the Trifecta but not for Constitutional issues Debt Ceiling, Budget items and VR, and Statehood, every state was a territory before it was a state, slave and free

Filibuster can be used on other things, like Crt packing, Feinstein is against Crt packing

Making Beasley statement moot

Ryan, Tester, Feinstein, Casey Pro life, Warner, Bennett says no to Crt packing already, but Statehood okay

You can't default on debt, Govt can't be in shutdown mode longer than a week

[MT Treasurer]

The only thing I've heard him say regarding vaccines is that nobody should be forced to take it, and that not every single person needs it equally. Up until mid-2021, that was a very mainstream position outside of upper-class liberals and not at all a conspiracy. However, it was very much a conspiracy in 2020 to say they were going to mandate vaccines for basic recreational activities like restaurants, or if you work for a company with 101 employees (not 99 though, covid doesn't infect those). Is there something else I'm missing? (asking anyone)

I mean, I support his reelection, I just vaguely remembered him hinting at their unsafety even though he is (?) vaccinated himself, but I wasn’t sure at all. Sorry if I was wrong. He’s completely right about the mandates and some of the CDC guidelines, and I do think backlash against COVID policies will help him a lot in rural/small-town WI in 2022. He really needs to run it up in those parts of the state to offset the trend away from the GOP in the Milwaukee/Madison metros & Green Bay. I also think D turnout (including in Milwaukee) will be very high in WI, so he can’t afford a substantial drop-off in R turnout like in 2018 (not that I’m expecting that).

I think the race is Lean R, with the GOP winning by 3, maybe 4 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes and Baldwin LGBT issues whom was more liberal than Barnes won by 10 pts

[Utah Neolib]

That endorsement by Warren will just show extreme Barnes is. He will repeatedly tied to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and socialist policies.

Tammy Baldwin is a thing, just so you know

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

That endorsement by Warren will just show extreme Barnes is. He will repeatedly tied to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and socialist policies.

Tammy Baldwin is a thing, just so you know

Tammy Baldwin isn’t real. I have it on good authority that liberals only exist in New York, California, Boston, and Seattle.

[MT Treasurer]

Baldwin hardly ran as a Sanders/Warren clone in 2012/2018, though. Her shtick is "I can’t be labeled because I will always fight for you," and most of her ads focused on her work for rural/agricultural communities (e.g. drairy farmers). As unfortunate as it is (in a just society, these identity-centered appeals would backfire rather than help), it’s going to be much harder to pull that off with a black Milwaukee politician with a history of working on the advancement of people of color and perceived as more threatening than the calm middle-aged white woman who speaks from her kitchen table and/or is surrounded by 'rural' white males in half of her ads. A candidate having an 'ideology' identical to that of some other, successful candidate will not always ensure their own success (see: Jon Tester/Kathleen Williams — there was a certain cohort of Trump/Tester voters that Kathleen Williams would have never reached even if she had run the strongest campaign possible). As much as I wish that voters evaluated candidates based on ideological grounds and voting records, it often just isn’t the case, which is why the same line of (ostensibly ideological) attack like "Candidate xyz is too liberal for WI" or "Candidate xyz is out of touch with our values" may work against one candidate but fall flat against another.

Also, Leah Vukmir was an absolute disaster candidate (hers was by far one of the worst-run Republican campaigns for Senate that year). Baldwin wasn’t going to lose that year, but I do think her margin (and the ensuing perception of her popularity/crossover appeal) was somewhat inflated by that poor R campaign & the drop-off in R turnout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook has this race a Tossup and our Gov race as Lean D in WI, Sabato has it Lean R

If Biden is near 50/45% Approvals, which he is all his Approvals are 48/48 like he was on Election night, I expect him to duplicate the 278 map as AZ and GA are Tossups

In the Senate

WI/PA pickups

[GALeftist]

Baldwin hardly ran as a Sanders/Warren clone in 2012/2018, though. Her shtick is "I can’t be labeled because I will always fight for you," and most of her ads focused on her work for rural/agricultural communities (e.g. drairy farmers). As unfortunate as it is (in a just society, these identity-centered appeals would backfire rather than help), it’s going to be much harder to pull that off with a black Milwaukee politician with a history of working on the advancement of people of color and perceived as more threatening than the calm middle-aged white woman who speaks from her kitchen table and/or is surrounded by 'rural' white males in half of her ads. A candidate having an 'ideology' identical to that of some other, successful candidate will not always ensure their own success (see: Jon Tester/Kathleen Williams — there was a certain cohort of Trump/Tester voters that Kathleen Williams would have never reached even if she had run the strongest campaign possible). As much as I wish that voters evaluated candidates based on ideological grounds and voting records, it often just isn’t the case, which is why the same line of (ostensibly ideological) attack like "Candidate xyz is too liberal for WI" or "Candidate xyz is out of touch with our values" may work against one candidate but fall flat against another.

Also, Leah Vukmir was an absolute disaster candidate (hers was by far one of the worst-run Republican campaigns for Senate that year). Baldwin wasn’t going to lose that year, but I do think her margin (and the ensuing perception of her popularity/crossover appeal) was somewhat inflated by that poor R campaign & the drop-off in R turnout.

Agree with almost all of this, but it's also worth noting that Tammy Baldwin *does* at least demonstrate that it's not the case that being a liberal candidate is a death sentence. I could be wrong, obviously, but I do not think a Warren endorsement will hurt or help. It will probably almost entirely come down to what types of campaigns the two candidates run as well as how good the year is for Republicans writ large.

[MT Treasurer]

Agree with almost all of this, but it's also worth noting that Tammy Baldwin *does* at least demonstrate that it's not the case that being a liberal candidate is a death sentence. I could be wrong, obviously, but I do not think a Warren endorsement will hurt or help. It will probably almost entirely come down to what types of campaigns the two candidates run as well as how good the year is for Republicans writ large.

Fair enough, I completely agree that the importance or impact of endorsements is overstated. They might help or hurt slightly if they reinforce an overall pattern (not unlike yard signs, they may play to social desirability by making the choice more acceptable to the voter or dispel doubts about their choice), but if Joe Manchin endorsing Hillary Clinton wasn’t enough to sink him or deconstruct his brand in 2018, believing that Warren endorsing Barnes will doom his campaign is absurd. Susan Collins literally endorsed Paul LePage in 2014 and still outperformed him by more than 30 points (!) on the same ballot. Expecting swing voters to "draw conclusions" based on things like endorsements (or anything, really) is a cardinal sin no competent campaign would commit.

If a Warren endorsement ends up "hurting" Barnes, it will be because he was always going to be hurt by something reinforcing that 'liberal elitist' theme simply because he was already easier to paint as an 'elitist' to begin with and has no carefully crafted statewide brand to counter that. However, it would by no means be the endorsement itself that would hurt him, and it’s not like Republicans wouldn’t have employed that line of attack if Warren hadn’t endorsed him.

Also note that the "populist" Tammy Baldwin was one of the most vocal supporters/influential organizers of the Clinton 2008 and 2016 primary campaigns in WI, a state where Clinton performed very poorly in both her runs. Baldwin also called Clinton's flip-flop on TPP a "non-issue," but of course no one is going to entertain the notion that Baldwin’s an "inauthentic" career politician or as "out of touch" with the electorate as Clinton. You’re not going to beat someone like Baldwin or Johnson without dismantling the perception that they’re authentic warriors "in it for you" rather than just predictable, power-driven career politicians who will reinvent themselves whenever it benefits their electoral prospects. Note Stabenow's underperformance in MI compared to Baldwin's result in WI — both have been serving in Congress for about the same period of time (Baldwin since 1999, Stabenow since 1997), both have practically identical voting records, both were supporters of Hillary Clinton (Baldwin even more so than Stabenow), etc., but one was (and still is) easier to paint as your unrelatable typical Washington career politician increasingly out of tune with the state.

Even if endorsements did matter this much, the idea that an endorsement from September 2021 would be on anyone's mind in November 2022 is of course ridiculous and again overstates the average voter's attention span (another cardinal sin).

[Ferguson97]

Is there any word on Ron Johnson running or not?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Indy Rep doesn't realize that Johnson tripped over himself by praising Proud Boys and Mandela Barnes was elected already statewide as LT Gov

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is there any word on Ron Johnson running or not?

He is taking so long decide that maybe we'll get lucky and he'll miss the filing deadline. I would rather this be an open race for the sake of Democratic chances to pick this seat up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Is there any word on Ron Johnson running or not?

He is taking so long decide that maybe we'll get lucky and he'll miss the filing deadline. I would rather this be an open race for the sake of Democratic chances to pick this seat up.

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You really don't see Johnson losing, let me remind he only won by 3% last time in 2016 and won in 2010 by 3% he isn't Rob Portman that won by 20% but all your maps you have WI Lean R and Baldwin won by a Landslide