WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Roll Roons]

She'd be a much better candidate than the rich carpetbagger.

[Not Me, Us]

Congratulations on winning back the Treasurer's office, Republicans.

To be fair, they probably would have anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Treasury isn't that important and he knows it, the Senate seat is gone, Johnson could have won but he made outrageous comment's about the Left movement and the cops are the ones that protected him not because White Evangelicals are well behaved, Right militia groups killed 4 Civil Rights leaders not left Militia

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/sarah-godlewski-senate-run-ron-johnson/index.html

Wisconsin Treasurer Sarah Godlewski launches Senate campaign as Ron Johnson freezes GOP field

She seemed likeable in her announcement video. And she outran Evers in 2018 by 2 points.

[Zthomp]

I don't think Ron Kind will run for senate. He will probably run for his house district again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Kind runs for Gov 2026, he doesn't have to run for Senate, Johnson has made the Rs vulnerable in down ballot races except the Treasurer office, that's why Evers is leading by 5 and Nelson is leading by 4

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Congratulations on winning back the Treasurer's office, Republicans.

The office literary has no power,duties and sh**t pay.

[redjohn]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/sarah-godlewski-senate-run-ron-johnson/index.html

Wisconsin Treasurer Sarah Godlewski launches Senate campaign as Ron Johnson freezes GOP field

She seemed likeable in her announcement video. And she outran Evers in 2018 by 2 points.

She outran Evers by 2 points because neither candidate in that race had any name recognition and liberals had a huge partisan advantage, not because of any statewide affection for her. Lots of voters on both sides left the state treasurer race blank. There was also a Constitution Party candidate who took over 2% of the vote.

Anyways, remains to be seen whether she stands any chance against Johnson. It's an uphill battle, but November 2022 is a ways away and who knows what potential scandals could shake up the race. Any partisan advantage that was there in 2018 that carried Democrats just over the finish line in most WI races will evaporate next year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/sarah-godlewski-senate-run-ron-johnson/index.html

Wisconsin Treasurer Sarah Godlewski launches Senate campaign as Ron Johnson freezes GOP field

She seemed likeable in her announcement video. And she outran Evers in 2018 by 2 points.

She outran Evers by 2 points because neither candidate in that race had any name recognition and liberals had a huge partisan advantage, not because of any statewide affection for her. Lots of voters on both sides left the state treasurer race blank. There was also a Constitution Party candidate who took over 2% of the vote.

Anyways, remains to be seen whether she stands any chance against Johnson. It's an uphill battle, but November 2022 is a ways away and who knows what potential scandals could shake up the race. Any partisan advantage that was there in 2018 that carried Democrats just over the finish line in most WI races will evaporate next year.

Evers and Nelson has been lesding in every poll since Johnson silly commens about the Insurrectionists, White Evangelicals are so well
behaved, and the cops lost their lives over this

Conservatives want us to forget about the Insurrectionists, no we won't and Rs want to give tax cuts and Johnson voted against the minimum wage

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook and Sabato made a strategic mistake in rating WI, as Lean R, Nate Silver always have it 278 EC blue wall, all they have to do is follow his ratings and WI is a D2 state by Cook standings anyways

Everyone knows that WARNOCK is the most endangered D running due to runoff scenario

Now, Rs in almost every post quote Cook and Sabato ratings on WI and it's a D 2 state which Cook rates it himself

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is an odd race to read about on Atlas in that folks here seem to always overestimate or underestimate its competitiveness.  Most folks seem to either feel Johnson has probably killed his chances with his antics or that this race probably won't be all that competitive.  While I have it at Tilt R atm, I haven't really seen much evidence that a decent recruit (to say nothing of an A-lister like Kind) wouldn't be able to potentially make this highly competitive.

Ultimately, Wisconsin statewide elections tend to come down to base turnout and the national environment more than anything.  Honestly, we really don't know what 2022 is gonna look like yet.  It could be anything from a good - albeit not wave-tier - year for the Dems (especially if the bill containing reforms to the redistricting process gets passed in time, which would mean a whole new ballgame re: the House) to a another Republican midterm wave (albeit almost certainly not anywhere near as bad as 2010 or the 2014 Senate wave).  

I get that this site by nature is going to have a lot of predictions well in advance of any given major election, but we really have no idea what 2022 is going to look like and to the extent that we do, Democrats have been doing pretty well so far.  

It's really early and the stimulus was always gonna be the easiest fight, but both the election reform package and the infrastructure bill are broadly popular to the point Republicans have struggled to even find a coherent line of attack re: the latter and for the former have reportedly concluded it'd only backfire to try to turn the public against the election reform bills (as opposed to just trying to quietly lobby Manchin to oppose it).  If Republicans are looking for an Obamacare-style (initially) unpopular policy to run against, they clearly haven't found it yet.

A lot could change very quickly, but I think there is some "fighting yesterday's war" going on in some of the assumptions that seem baked into a lot of people's 2020 analysis (a somewhat less common example is the assumption that Republican base turnout will drop Georgia runoff-style without Trump on the ballot and while that's possible, I don't see why so many red avatars are taking it as a given).

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/sarah-godlewski-senate-run-ron-johnson/index.html

Wisconsin Treasurer Sarah Godlewski launches Senate campaign as Ron Johnson freezes GOP field

She seemed likeable in her announcement video. And she outran Evers in 2018 by 2 points.

She outran Evers by 2 points because neither candidate in that race had any name recognition and liberals had a huge partisan advantage, not because of any statewide affection for her. Lots of voters on both sides left the state treasurer race blank. There was also a Constitution Party candidate who took over 2% of the vote.

Anyways, remains to be seen whether she stands any chance against Johnson. It's an uphill battle, but November 2022 is a ways away and who knows what potential scandals could shake up the race. Any partisan advantage that was there in 2018 that carried Democrats just over the finish line in most WI races will evaporate next year.

Evers and Nelson Clinton and Feingold has been lesding in every poll since Johnson Trump's silly commens about the Insurrectionists Immigrants, White Evangelicals are so well
behaved, and the cops lost their lives over this

Conservatives Liberals want us to forget about the Insurrectionists Benghazi, no we won't and Rs want to give tax cuts and Johnson voted against the minimum wage ACA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson made outrageous comment's about Left Militia Groups being the bad guy and the cops protected him from QAnon support on the Insurrectionists.

He also, was part of Benghazi and Hilary.  Nelson and Evers have been leading in every poll since Johnson outrageous comment's

Lean D, Cook has WI as D plus 2 state, he has the Gov race anyways at Lean D

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1382760286646644736?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I now prefer the Treasurer in this race over Nelson, anyone of them are better than Johnson whom has cost the R Nominee Support over his support for QAnonon

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Mandela Barnes the LT governor of the state followed me on twitter, perhaps he is hinting at a run for office by following key power-brokers in the state.

[beesley]

People (whom we should not necessarily listen to) seem to be suggesting that Johnson's fundraising is proof that he's calling it quits, similar to Grassley.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

People (whom we should not necessarily listen to) seem to be suggesting that Johnson's fundraising is proof that he's calling it quits, similar to Grassley.

He can self-fund, and if I was as rich as him I'd probably do that rather than spending my timne as a glorified phones salesman.

[Gass3268]

Sarah Godlewski is my preferred choice at this time. Tom Nelson has lost too many races for me to take him seriously and Alex Lasry hasn't lived in Wisconsin long enough to not be labeled a carpetbagger. Plus he has quotes about Milwaukee and Wisconsin that would be painful during a campaign.

[President Johnson]

Hard to assess how strong a candidate Barnes would be. I thought Mark Pocan would have been a good choice for Democrats, but he isn't running.

Mandela Barnes the LT governor of the state followed me on twitter, perhaps he is hinting at a run for office by following key power-brokers in the state.

Lmao, I got Susan Bysiewicz and Nanette Barragan on another network

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Likely Dem takeover along with PA and NH we will win due to Scott Brown scenario, HE LOST IN 2014/ like Sununu will, once he gets scrutinized by the press by vetoing the Minimum wage in 2019.

Evers has the same Approvals as DeSantis, Johnson own outrageous comment's on QANON support gave the Gov and Senate race away. Every polls shows Nelson and Evers ahead WI, PA, NH are 51/49  D states and MI is a 52/48 State by Cook PVI

But, I know Rs think is Lean R, try hey want it to be due Statehood and DC

[Drew]

Sarah Godlewski is my preferred choice at this time. Tom Nelson has lost too many races for me to take him seriously and Alex Lasry hasn't lived in Wisconsin long enough to not be labeled a carpetbagger. Plus he has quotes about Milwaukee and Wisconsin that would be painful during a campaign.

Pretty much this, though I would consider Barnes if he enters.  As far as other potential candidates go, Kaul could be a solid candidate too, but we need him to hold the AG seat.  Also, I’m not convinced that Ron Kind would get the turnout from Milwaukee and Madison that he would need to win.  He doesn’t seem like a particularly great fit for either of the two Dem base areas, considering his record on gun issues for example.

[UWS]

Sarah Godlewski is my preferred choice at this time. Tom Nelson has lost too many races for me to take him seriously and Alex Lasry hasn't lived in Wisconsin long enough to not be labeled a carpetbagger. Plus he has quotes about Milwaukee and Wisconsin that would be painful during a campaign.

Pretty much this, though I would consider Barnes if he enters.  As far as other potential candidates go, Kaul could be a solid candidate too, but we need him to hold the AG seat.  Also, I’m not convinced that Ron Kind would get the turnout from Milwaukee and Madison that he would need to win.  He doesn’t seem like a particularly great fit for either of the two Dem base areas, considering his record on gun issues for example.

The moreover that Ron Kind could be vulnerable in the primary as he supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership and urged fellow House members to vote for it. He also voted for the Iraq War in 2002. That's the kind of record that cost Hillary Clinton the Wisconsin Democratic primary in 2016, losing it to Bernie Sanders.

[walleye26]

I don’t think Barnes would be a good fit either. His comments after the Blake shooting and his unpaid taxes at his Milwaukee condos will be nonstop fodder for talk radio in WOW. Godlewski isn’t a bad recruit, seeing she’s won statewide that should count for something (though Treasurer is a joke position, in fact her predecessor left it to run for state house, that should tell you how lame it is), and I don’t think anybody knows how Lasry or Nelson are. Kind would be a decent recruit, and it’s possible that a State Rep or State Senator could appear for the Dems that wouldn’t be a bad choices either. 

[Mr. Smith]

Ironically, this could be a Feingold '92 situation in the makin'

Johnson's already a bit of a Kasten on 'roids, and '16 is semi-similar to  '86 in result [tho I don't think that was a rematch with Nelson...], and what happened to the other Nelson of note in The St. Ronnie Revolution isn't that separate from 2010 in nature... so...