FL - Rasmussen/Pulse: Trump +4

[wbrocks67]

I have to admit, even though this is Rasmussen, I'm getting a bit concerned about Florida. It seems to be trending the wrong way relative to the other battleground states. I still think Biden wins there, because really if he's leading by 9-10 nationally he certainly should be leading in Florida, but it feels a bit more like Tilt Biden than Lean Biden right now.

Huh?

Last A/B rated polls of FL:

Biden +7
Biden +4
Biden +4
Biden +1
Biden +3
Biden +4

I know where the high-quality polls are, but still, the split between the high-quality and low-quality polls shouldn't be quite as large as it has been lately. Something seems a bit off.

This is happening all over with different states. The high quality polls are averaging about Biden +4. That's where the average has been for a while now, an uptick from a few months ago when it went down to Biden +1/2.

Just like in PA. Low quality pollsters have it at like Biden +2/3 while the HQ ones have it at like 7/8. It's just bc we're getting a ton of sh!tty pollsters.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Here we go with the bed wetting and this forum will have 10 pages.

[Buzz]

Trump is more likely to lose FL by >5% than to win it lmao.

Imagine being this delusional!  Couldn’t be me!

[EJ24]

I think the final margin here will be Trump by 0.04% or something.

Florida is just a very Trumpy state, Biden doesn't need it to win, and the amount of people on this site thinking Trump will carry it by 8 points are delusional.

[redjohn]

Tossup is still tossup. This state could go either way, and I think it being a tossup is a major improvement from earlier this year (and last year) when it seemed Trump would carry FL by a substantial (3+) margin.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Makes sense when you think about that.

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1319605958037950470

Rassy polls tend to be prone to very wild swings, which makes them a bit iffy. Trump's already inflated approval from black voters doubling over a week isn't realistic, especially considering there wasn't some massive event around race this week.

Um, ALL OF THOSE POLLS are junk. Trump does NOT even have double digit approval among Black people - much less 25-46%. Just ridiculous.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I have to admit, even though this is Rasmussen, I'm getting a bit concerned about Florida. It seems to be trending the wrong way relative to the other battleground states. I still think Biden wins there, because really if he's leading by 9-10 nationally he certainly should be leading in Florida, but it feels a bit more like Tilt Biden than Lean Biden right now.

Huh?

Last A/B rated polls of FL:

Biden +7
Biden +4
Biden +4
Biden +1
Biden +3
Biden +4

I know where the high-quality polls are, but still, the split between the high-quality and low-quality polls shouldn't be quite as large as it has been lately. Something seems a bit off.

This is happening all over with different states. The high quality polls are averaging about Biden +4. That's where the average has been for a while now, an uptick from a few months ago when it went down to Biden +1/2.

Just like in PA. Low quality pollsters have it at like Biden +2/3 while the HQ ones have it at like 7/8. It's just bc we're getting a ton of sh!tty pollsters.

You're probably right. Still, there are few states I'm less inclined to trust than Florida.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I have to admit, even though this is Rasmussen, I'm getting a bit concerned about Florida. It seems to be trending the wrong way relative to the other battleground states. I still think Biden wins there, because really if he's leading by 9-10 nationally he certainly should be leading in Florida, but it feels a bit more like Tilt Biden than Lean Biden right now.

Huh?

Last A/B rated polls of FL:

Biden +7
Biden +4
Biden +4
Biden +1
Biden +3
Biden +4

I know where the high-quality polls are, but still, the split between the high-quality and low-quality polls shouldn't be quite as large as it has been lately. Something seems a bit off.

This is happening all over with different states. The high quality polls are averaging about Biden +4. That's where the average has been for a while now, an uptick from a few months ago when it went down to Biden +1/2.

Just like in PA. Low quality pollsters have it at like Biden +2/3 while the HQ ones have it at like 7/8. It's just bc we're getting a ton of sh!tty pollsters.

Also, notice how there have been more outliers that fall below the mean (showing favorable results for Trump) than lie above the mean (showing favorable results to Biden)

[Person Man]

I have to admit, even though this is Rasmussen, I'm getting a bit concerned about Florida. It seems to be trending the wrong way relative to the other battleground states. I still think Biden wins there, because really if he's leading by 9-10 nationally he certainly should be leading in Florida, but it feels a bit more like Tilt Biden than Lean Biden right now.

Huh?

Last A/B rated polls of FL:

Biden +7
Biden +4
Biden +4
Biden +1
Biden +3
Biden +4

I know where the high-quality polls are, but still, the split between the high-quality and low-quality polls shouldn't be quite as large as it has been lately. Something seems a bit off.

This is happening all over with different states. The high quality polls are averaging about Biden +4. That's where the average has been for a while now, an uptick from a few months ago when it went down to Biden +1/2.

Just like in PA. Low quality pollsters have it at like Biden +2/3 while the HQ ones have it at like 7/8. It's just bc we're getting a ton of sh!tty pollsters.

Also, notice how there have been more outliers that fall below the mean (showing favorable results for Trump) than lie above the mean (showing favorable results to Biden)

Then they are pushing the mean down.

[TC 25]

In the end, Florida goes to Trump by a point or two.

[Bootes Void]

Just a reminder that Obama was a huge underdog in Florida back in 2012 but he ended up winning. if Biden is ahead by more than 5% nationally, he will win Florida

[Asta]

Just a reminder that Obama was a huge underdog in Florida back in 2012 but he ended up winning. if Biden is ahead by more than 5% nationally, he will win Florida

Nate Silver barely had it under Romney's column before switching back to Obama from my memory. Obama was not a huge underdog.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I have to admit, even though this is Rasmussen, I'm getting a bit concerned about Florida. It seems to be trending the wrong way relative to the other battleground states. I still think Biden wins there, because really if he's leading by 9-10 nationally he certainly should be leading in Florida, but it feels a bit more like Tilt Biden than Lean Biden right now.

Huh?

Last A/B rated polls of FL:

Biden +7
Biden +4
Biden +4
Biden +1
Biden +3
Biden +4

I know where the high-quality polls are, but still, the split between the high-quality and low-quality polls shouldn't be quite as large as it has been lately. Something seems a bit off.

This is happening all over with different states. The high quality polls are averaging about Biden +4. That's where the average has been for a while now, an uptick from a few months ago when it went down to Biden +1/2.

Just like in PA. Low quality pollsters have it at like Biden +2/3 while the HQ ones have it at like 7/8. It's just bc we're getting a ton of sh!tty pollsters.

Also, notice how there have been more outliers that fall below the mean (showing favorable results for Trump) than lie above the mean (showing favorable results to Biden)

Then they are pushing the mean down.

Sorry, I should've said median. In my polling averages, in most states, the (weighted) median poll is slightly better for Joe Biden than the weighted average. In PA, for example, the weighted average has Joe up 50.53 - 44.64, but the weighted median poll has him up 51-44. Same is true for FL; weighted average is 49.79 - 46.09, but the median poll is 50 - 45.

[Hammy]

I have to admit, even though this is Rasmussen, I'm getting a bit concerned about Florida. It seems to be trending the wrong way relative to the other battleground states. I still think Biden wins there, because really if he's leading by 9-10 nationally he certainly should be leading in Florida, but it feels a bit more like Tilt Biden than Lean Biden right now.

Florida polling is never correct, it always ends up being much closer to the +/- 0 margin.

[Bootes Void]

Just a reminder that Obama was a huge underdog in Florida back in 2012 but he ended up winning. if Biden is ahead by more than 5% nationally, he will win Florida

Nate Silver barely had it under Romney's column before switching back to Obama from my memory. Obama was not a huge underdog.

The pundits and the political consensus at the time was that Florida was tilt Romney. They also basing on some mason dixon poll that had Romney ahead by 6

Nate Silver was one of the very few people to say Obama would win Florida

[Woody]

Lean R.

[libertpaulian]

So it's really Biden +1-2.