Allan Litchman “Trump will become first president to lose re-election bid since 1992”

[Kleine Scheiße]

He predicted Gore in 2000 and Trump in 2016 so he sometimes claims his model predicts the popular vote winner and sometimes the electoral college winner. He's a complete fraud and it's embarrassing that he still gets attention.

I agree that his model is not very reliable and several of the keys are completely subjective. Though as for 2000 to be fair, if he was claiming that Gore would win the electoral college, you can’t really blame him for getting it wrong as that election was for all extents and purposes tied (and one might argue Gore was the rightful EV winner).

After 2000 he's been claiming that the model was right in saying Gore specifically because it predicts the PV and not the EV. Then his model predicted Trump in 2016 and then he claimed he was right even though Trump lost the PV.

Nate Silver also did a good write-up on why the model is BS. It doesn't correlate at all with the outcomes beyond the win/lose metric.

An even bigger problem is most of the criteria are incredibly subjective to the point you can have it predict whatever you want it to after the fact.

All of you are correct.

[BaldEagle1991]

I would be tempted to add a fourteenth key:

The President has not bungled a response to any natural disaster. This key would hit Trump hard for COVID-19 and wildfires on the West Coast. No President is responsible for an earthquake, hurricane, tornado outbreak, flood, meteor strike, or volcanic eruption... or even a pandemic, but he is responsible for coordinating aid from evacuations to reconstruction.   

I could argue Hurricane María in 2017 in his first year could be used against him on that front.

[Real Texan Politics]

Well a couple of people did their own keys responses so I guess I'll do mine. Blue means Trump wins, red means Biden wins, and purple means half and half.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Dems took the house. Obvious false, no questions asked.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Despite having 2 opponents, they really weren't serious enough to be considered threats to his campaign. Plus Trump has around a 90% approval among republicans according to Civiqs. True.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Do I even need to explain? True.

4. Third Party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

This isn't 1992/96, and there's no major dixiecrat on the ballot trying to steal electoral votes. Also Jorgensen and Howie aren't really as well known as someone like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. As for Kanye...he'll get the joke votes, but he's not on the ballot in every state, and the vast majority of states he's on the ballot on are safe states for Trump or Biden. True.

5. Short-Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Slight improvement from spring and early summer, but still lingers in minds of voters, and I'd say we're still sorta in a recession today. False.

6. Long-Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Up til covid I'd say this would be true for Trump, but most voters are gonna recall the economy in its current state rather than the economy in let's say 2018. False.

7. Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

At least early in his term. Withdrawing from the TPP and replacing NAFTA with the USMCA would definitely count in this case. The tax cuts may not be anything special though.

I would also count the supreme court justices he nominated, including Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. Of course the latter two were controversial, but they did (and could for ACB) impact the 2020 senate elections. I'd put this as true.

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

The BLM protests/riots, Charlottesville, the Women's Marches (may have been peaceful but could still count), March For Our Lives (same as the women's march), several mass shootings that occurred under the administration. The "law and order" message may have worked for Nixon in 1968 when he wasn't the incumbent, but Trump is the incumbent, therefore he's getting the blame from voters. Definite false.

9. Major Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Access Hollywood, Stormy Daniels, Russiagate, "losers and suckers", heck he was impeached as well! If this isn't false then I don't know what to tell you.

10. Foreign/Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
 
I don't think there were any major failures on his part. However, the WWIII scares coinciding with the killing of Qasem Soleimani may still be fresh in the mind of voters. This is about even, so half to Trump and half to Biden.

11. Foreign/Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

This I'd have to disagree with Lichtman on. The Middle Eastern peace deals were definitely a success. We haven't had any major foreign terrorist attacks that I know of. Plus the leader of ISIS was killed which could translate to some voters as defeating ISIS. While I did say the killing of Qasem Soleimani may have worried some people about WWIII, it definitely could be viewed as a success as well to some voters. Though I could see why people would say otherwise. Also Trump has stated he wants to remove troops from the Middle East and end the endless wars there, which could appeal to anti-war independent voters. And if the USMCA counts, that could be attributed as a success. True in my opinion.

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

While Trump has the energy that Biden seems to lack (and maybe some charisma here and there), his tone still comes off as mean spirited which could easily turn off voters. False.

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Biden has the nice guy appeal and the empathy. But the gaffes and his lack of energy are still a major downside. Plus he's no JFK or Obama or even Reagan. True.

Results: Tie with both candidates getting 6.5 keys, however I think there are other things that could be factored in as well. So I'm doing more keys.

Bonus Key 1. Major Natural Disasters

2020 has had the most hurricanes in one year since 2005 (remember Katrina?). Plus with climate change now a major political issue, every time a hurricane has hit, the conversation about climate change seems to get more traction. And we can't forget about the Cascadia wildfires.

And also remember Trump got a lot of blame for his handling of Hurricane Maria in 2018, similar to how Bush was criticized for his handling of Katrina (hence the "George Bush doesn't care about black people" quote from everyone's favorite attention seeker Kanye West). False.

Bonus Key 2. Voter Turnout

After I voted today, I heard that first day early voting turnout set a new record in Harris County, TX, which goes to show this will be a high turnout election for sure. Plus the rise of mail-in voting following the pandemic will increase turnout (though fraud is still a concern). If it's true that higher turnout benefits democrats, then this key is false.

And when we add in the bonus 2 keys....

Biden 8.5 - Trump 6.5

The keys predict a Biden victory.

However this is just my silly opinion so I'm sure I'll get ridiculed for something.

[StateBoiler]

Is this what passes for political analysis on this forum?

On a related note, more than half the people on this forum have been determined to be less than 28 years old.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Trump loses, this is an enemy we can't see and it will be tough even for D's to solve the crisis. Rs know that 230 seats in the House isn't that big, they lost that majority in 2018, Pelosi can very well lose the majority if she only passes UBI benefits and doesn't solve the employment crisis. Just because D's assume the majority doesn't mean they are in that position forever.

This is a difficult time for everyone and in Asia and Europe where tourist industry is the economy, in Taiwan, Tokyo, Paris and Rome and London, they still are social distancing, and don't have tourist

[BaldEagle1991]

This is a difficult time for everyone and in Asia and Europe where tourist industry is the economy, in Taiwan, Tokyo, Paris and Rome and London, they still are social distancing, and don't have tourist

Ah true. Tokyo is probably the biggest blunt of this. They were expecting the Olympics on top of its usual amount of tourists this year.

[Andy Hine]

This is a difficult time for everyone and in Asia and Europe where tourist industry is the economy, in Taiwan, Tokyo, Paris and Rome and London, they still are social distancing, and don't have tourist

Ah true. Tokyo is probably the biggest blunt of this. They were expecting the Olympics on top of its usual amount of tourists this year.

The olympics being cancelled was one of the best parts of 2020 so far.

[BaldEagle1991]

I would be tempted to add a fourteenth key:

The President has not bungled a response to any natural disaster. This key would hit Trump hard for COVID-19 and wildfires on the West Coast. No President is responsible for an earthquake, hurricane, tornado outbreak, flood, meteor strike, or volcanic eruption... or even a pandemic, but he is responsible for coordinating aid from evacuations to reconstruction.   

Go ask Puerto Rico and see if they agree with you about that.

This is a difficult time for everyone and in Asia and Europe where tourist industry is the economy, in Taiwan, Tokyo, Paris and Rome and London, they still are social distancing, and don't have tourist

Ah true. Tokyo is probably the biggest blunt of this. They were expecting the Olympics on top of its usual amount of tourists this year.

The olympics being cancelled was one of the best parts of 2020 so far.

Hell no, I like the Olympics.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

This is a difficult time for everyone and in Asia and Europe where tourist industry is the economy, in Taiwan, Tokyo, Paris and Rome and London, they still are social distancing, and don't have tourist

Ah true. Tokyo is probably the biggest blunt of this. They were expecting the Olympics on top of its usual amount of tourists this year.

The olympics being cancelled was one of the best parts of 2020 so far.

No. The Tokyo 2020 Olympics was supposed to be awesome! Now, we have to wait a year.

[BaldEagle1991]

This is a difficult time for everyone and in Asia and Europe where tourist industry is the economy, in Taiwan, Tokyo, Paris and Rome and London, they still are social distancing, and don't have tourist

Ah true. Tokyo is probably the biggest blunt of this. They were expecting the Olympics on top of its usual amount of tourists this year.

The olympics being cancelled was one of the best parts of 2020 so far.

No. The Tokyo 2020 Olympics was supposed to be awesome! Now, we have to wait a year.

Agreed.

Simone Biles & Katie Ledecky would've had a lot of gold medals by now if it weren't for Covid.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a difficult time for everyone and in Asia and Europe where tourist industry is the economy, in Taiwan, Tokyo, Paris and Rome and London, they still are social distancing, and don't have tourist

Ah true. Tokyo is probably the biggest blunt of this. They were expecting the Olympics on top of its usual amount of tourists this year.

The olympics being cancelled was one of the best parts of 2020 so far.

No. The Tokyo 2020 Olympics was supposed to be awesome! Now, we have to wait a year.

Just going to chime in and say I was looking forward for eons to see the Opening Ceremony on NHK and the fact COVID dashed that is sad.

[Real Texan Politics]

Why did the thread go from Lichtman to the olympics?

[BaldEagle1991]

Why did the thread go from Lichtman to the olympics?

Cause I mentioned Tokyo was going to be hurt from 2020's COVID economy slowdown and tourism and whatnot. Someone said that the Olympics being "cancelled" (it's actually postponed) was the best thing to happen in 2020, and me and other got everyone angry.

[Andy Hine]

The Olympics are an overcommercialized snooze fest.