If Trump pulls a miracle win in 2020, what will be the most commonly cited reason in hindsight?
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  If Trump pulls a miracle win in 2020, what will be the most commonly cited reason in hindsight?
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Question: If Trump pulls a miracle win in 2020, what will be the most commonly cited reason in hindsight?
#1
Biden not campaigning while Trump held rallies
 
#2
Trump voter enthusiasm led to higher than expected GOP turnout
 
#3
Biden and Democrats failed to answer questions about court-packing
 
#4
Trump overperformed with Latinos while Biden struggled
 
#5
Democrats made too big of an issue of COVID, people got tired of it
 
#6
Polls being wrong, shy Trump vote was real
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 129

Author Topic: If Trump pulls a miracle win in 2020, what will be the most commonly cited reason in hindsight?  (Read 2429 times)
NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2020, 06:48:01 PM »

Russia changing votes from Biden to Trump at voting booths (they have the capability to do this).
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #26 on: October 22, 2020, 06:49:43 PM »

Two reasons not on your list. One: the American voting system is absolutely crackpot, (as evidenced by a candidate getting 3 million more votes than her opponent and not winning)

The second I can't write out of deference to my many kind and generous American friends.
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2020, 09:26:39 PM »

It will because Joe Biden didn't offer bold policies like Medicare For All and/or a Green New Deal while attacking Donald Trump too much. He's using the same strategy as Hillery Clinton in 2016. In other words, he's running an Anti-Trump Moderate Campaign which doesn't resonate well with Progressive voters.
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #28 on: October 22, 2020, 09:38:43 PM »

Shy Voters/The Silent Majority Theory. Dems will just have to realize it's true, unfortunately.
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Hammy
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« Reply #29 on: October 22, 2020, 09:39:48 PM »

Well it won't be because of his debate performance, that's for sure.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #30 on: October 22, 2020, 09:44:02 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2020, 10:35:10 PM by Tucker Carlson 2024 »

Mixture of 2 and 6
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Orser67
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« Reply #31 on: October 22, 2020, 09:47:17 PM »

Huge turnout problems caused by COVID
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Spark
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« Reply #32 on: October 22, 2020, 11:35:52 PM »

Probably Trump's ground game, juicing turnout among non-college whites and his apparent gains with black and Hispanic men actually being real.

This and enthusiasm among Rs.
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Blue3
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« Reply #33 on: October 22, 2020, 11:38:09 PM »

Voter Suppression

Why isn't that included?
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #34 on: October 22, 2020, 11:39:04 PM »

Voter Suppression

Why isn't that included?

And the stupidity of the average American. (Everybody here excluded of course.)
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jfern
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« Reply #35 on: October 22, 2020, 11:42:47 PM »

Racist Russian Bernie Bros hacked the election!
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #36 on: October 22, 2020, 11:43:58 PM »

Voter Suppression

Why isn't that included?

And the stupidity of the average American. (Everybody here excluded of course.)
Indeed, I am becoming more in favor of China becoming the World’s superpower each day with this administration.
It was a good run we had, but I don’t think we are in the position to be the World hegemon anymore.
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AGA
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« Reply #37 on: October 23, 2020, 12:09:29 AM »

Antifa/BLM riots.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #38 on: October 23, 2020, 12:59:07 AM »


You sure they'd do that in favor of Trump?
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jfern
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« Reply #39 on: October 23, 2020, 04:03:18 AM »


They will do it in favor of whomever you want because they don't exist. Tongue
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #40 on: October 23, 2020, 04:06:28 AM »

If Trump wins, it is because any of:

(i) the voters were scared off by the AOC and Bernie' socialist ideal;
(ii) the previous voters of Trump are satisfied with his stated achievements;
(iii) Trump is nastier than most leaders in a nasty world looking to exploit the USA; and
(iv) wants the countries economic engine firing.

For (ii), regardless of the ethical position, if you were a 2016 Trump voter looking for the stated pre-election goals featuring:

(a) Reduced immigration from Mexico and the building of the Wall;
(b) Reduced immigration from Muslim countries;
(c) Stricter international trade deals against China;
(d) Lower Taxes;
(e) Better employment salaries and conditions;
(f) Removal of strict environmental conditions and red tape on business;
(g) Get NATO Allies to pay for their own protection;

then you would most likely be satisfied. So the question remains.. "Why would they change their vote?"

It is going to be an interesting election.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #41 on: October 23, 2020, 04:33:55 AM »

I think it'll be a little more general "Biden was old, represented the old Democratic Party, and wasn't able to inspire enough of a coalition to turn out for him during a pandemic" although the lack of rallies would probably (I would argue unfairly) play into that narrative.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #42 on: October 23, 2020, 04:36:17 AM »

Russia changing votes from Biden to Trump at voting booths (they have the capability to do this).

Idiocy. The dumbness of US electorate is much more likely reason..
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #43 on: October 23, 2020, 04:45:15 AM »

Russia changing votes from Biden to Trump at voting booths (they have the capability to do this).

Idiocy. The dumbness of US electorate is much more likely reason..

So says the poster posting from Moscow.

Why should we believe you about the American electorate?
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Umengus
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« Reply #44 on: October 23, 2020, 07:41:38 AM »


lol. Silver and others predict a 150+ millions turnout if I'm correct.
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Umengus
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« Reply #45 on: October 23, 2020, 07:47:12 AM »

If trump win, it will be due to:

-economy: he leads biden on it.
-fear of socialism (in Florida, it works well with some hispanics)
-a very good turnout of the GOP voters and of course only a little lead of Biden amongst indies

EV in some states (FL, MI, NC,...) seems better for Trump than predicted so hope is there !
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #46 on: October 23, 2020, 10:00:56 AM »

Bradley Effect, and Democrats didn’t get the support they thought they’d get out of minority groups.

It can’t be about turnout at this point.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #47 on: October 23, 2020, 01:50:24 PM »

The true answer will be a mix of 2 and 6, though I expect 2 will get ignored, 4 will be over-exaggerated, and Russia will be blamed for all of it.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #48 on: October 23, 2020, 01:51:29 PM »

Probably mail in ballots rejected or courts ordered them to stop counting.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #49 on: October 23, 2020, 02:07:20 PM »

If he wins, it'll have to be for a lot of reasons including a massive October surprise, but predicting the most commonly cited is much easier. The October surprise, whatever it is, will be disregarded in favour of the Shy Trump Voters theory because He Did It Before and it gives Cillizza and co. an excuse to keep pestering random WWC men in rural diners.
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