MT - NBC MT/Strategies 360: Daines +1 (SEN), TIE (House) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 07:08:41 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  MT - NBC MT/Strategies 360: Daines +1 (SEN), TIE (House) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: MT - NBC MT/Strategies 360: Daines +1 (SEN), TIE (House)  (Read 1187 times)
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,589
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

« on: October 22, 2020, 01:36:47 PM »

This is gonna be close
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,589
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2020, 06:02:22 PM »

I don’t know man, I think we need to annoy the last three Montanans who haven’t been contacted by a pollster yet so a few kids on Talk Elections Dot Org can get two or three more polls showing the race within 2 points. I don’t think there’s ever been as much of a campaign-related onslaught on a small state as there was in MT from 2011 to 2020 (although SD from 2001 to 2004 probably comes close).

Anyway, while it might take a while before we get a projection in this race, we’ll get a good general sense of where the race is headed fairly early on election night. Yellowstone County will be the first big indicator since it usually reports before Gallatin, so watch how wide Daines' margin is there (Rosendale won it by 3.5, which isn’t enough for a Republican these days) and pay attention to ‘bellwether’ Lake in the West (which has been very close to the statewide result in recent elections) and Cascade County (Great Falls + outlying areas), which Daines needs to flip or at least keep very close (i.e., no worse than a 1-point loss). I’d feel much better about a win in Cascade than even a narrow loss there since this is one of the more swingy urban/-ish (by MT standards) areas which isn’t trending Democratic -- if Daines can’t even make up ground here, it’s a very bad sign for him.

2018 -> 2020 swings won’t be uniform, but unless Daines can do two of the following, there is no path to victory for him: (a) win Yellowstone County by at least 7 points; (b) reduce the Democratic margin in Gallatin from D+21 to D+15 and in Missoula from D+37 to D+32 while keeping Cascade County very close or flipping it; (c) outperform Rosendale by 5+ points in the vast majority of the rural/small-town counties in the central and eastern part of the state. Other areas will be interesting too but are a little more difficult to extrapolate to the statewide trend, so that’s basically where the race will be decided. If previous patterns of election night reporting continue and aren’t upended by the pandemic/all-mail voting, Daines will need to be ahead by at least 5 points when 80-85% of the vote is in to be secure (both Rosendale 2018 and Gianforte 2016 were actually ahead at that point in the night in their respective races, so Republicans shouldn’t get too excited if Daines is only leading by 3 points or so in the wee hours).

Thank you for all the good barometers
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 14 queries.