Lackawanna + 2 counties in GA (OurProgressHQ)

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/WhosWinning2020/status/1319315578801143814
https://twitter.com/WhosWinning2020/status/1319284879645765632
https://twitter.com/WhosWinning2020/status/1319315075740565505

[Horus]

Great results for Lowndes county.

[wbrocks67]

Lackawanna was +23 for Casey in 2018, so +17 sounds about right for Biden.

[kireev]

The Muscogee County results are actually decent for Biden because the county has roughly the same number of whites and blacks. The black vote is similar to 2016, so Biden probably closed the gap by several points with white voters.

[TheLaRocca]

It's actually a decent poll for Biden because the county has roughly the same number of whites and blacks. The black vote is similar to 2016, so Biden probably closed the gap by several points with white voters.

Yeah it shows

(1) Black vote similar to 2016 (lol we already knew this)
(2) Biden doing better than Abrams and Clinton with GA Whites

yet this whole forum thinks Trump easily wins Georgia because it was a Republican state in the 90s or something or "Brian Kemp steals elections".

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

SCRANTON JOE

[EJ24]

S C R A N T O N J O E

[Canis]

I dont get why so many pollsters are polling counties just poll the whole goddamn state

[TopShelfGoal]

The difference between how much better the county/district level polling is for Biden relative to state level polling that Wasserman has been talking about continues to be salient. I do wonder if state level polls might be understating Biden support like they did with Trump 4 years ago.

[soundchaser]

The difference between how much better the county/district level polling is for Biden relative to state level polling that Wasserman has been talking about continues to be salient. I do wonder if state level polls might be understating Biden support like they did with Trump 4 years ago.

If that’s the case, we’re looking at an electoral bloodbath based on Texas alone.

[TrumpBritt24]

I dont get why so many pollsters are polling counties just poll the whole goddamn state

It helps the campaigns/politicos get a stronger idea of the intrinsic details of why what will happen will have happened.

[TheLaRocca]

Yeah if national polling is accurate then absolutely no chance Trump holds Georgia.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah if national polling is accurate then absolutely no chance Trump holds Georgia.

The swing in GA has less to do with national polls than in most states. After MS, it is about as polarised as a state can get.

[Progressive Pessimist]

MuscJOEgee County!

[BaldEagle1991]

Scranton's poll numbers are good for Biden, mainly cause that means a lot of the WWC voters in the Rust Belt are flipping back to the Democrats.

[TheLaRocca]

Yeah if national polling is accurate then absolutely no chance Trump holds Georgia.

The swing in GA has less to do with national polls than in most states. After MS, it is about as polarised as a state can get.

becoming too diverse and white educated voters shifting from the republicans to the democrats is most of the swing this election.

[Kalimantan]

The difference between how much better the county/district level polling is for Biden relative to state level polling that Wasserman has been talking about continues to be salient. I do wonder if state level polls might be understating Biden support like they did with Trump 4 years ago.

It certainly looks that way. However I think it might have something to do with only certain counties being swingy and those being the ones that are being polled. But swings to one candidate most definitely won't be uniform throughout a state. For example the core districts of big cities, or rural parishes down south, are going to have almost identical vote shares in 2020 as they did in 2016, blowouts for one party. So even though certain counties are shifting a lot, the state as a whole won't be shifting so much.

[Adam Griffin]

Nothing surprising or enlightening about Muscogee: Biden was always going to get at least 57% and Trump would never fall below 35%. Biden will want to be in the 61-62% range there, though.

Lowndes is far more intriguing. Trump won by 17.4; Romney by 9.9.

[TheLaRocca]

Nothing surprising or enlightening about Muscogee: Biden was always going to get at least 57% and Trump would never fall below 35%. Biden will want to be in the 61-62% range there, though.

Lowndes is far more intriguing. Trump won by 17.4; Romney by 9.9.

Given Black vote and turnout won't be as high for Obama as it was for Biden that means Biden is making serious inroads with GA Whites. Also, consider ATL suburban whites are ALOT more friendly than whites in an area as polarized as this.

[Adam Griffin]

Nothing surprising or enlightening about Muscogee: Biden was always going to get at least 57% and Trump would never fall below 35%. Biden will want to be in the 61-62% range there, though.

Lowndes is far more intriguing. Trump won by 17.4; Romney by 9.9.

Given Black vote and turnout won't be as high for Obama as it was for Biden that means Biden is making serious inroads with GA Whites. Also, consider ATL suburban whites are ALOT more friendly than whites in an area as polarized as this.

Counties like Lowndes and Muscogee are blacker than they were during the Obama years, so that's not necessarily true. Even if black turnout is lower percentage-wise than in the Obama years, higher BVAP means more black voters than would otherwise have existed with the same turnout several years prior; if black interest is even nominally higher than 2016, Obama numbers from black voters can be matched even with lower turnout as a percentage.

More specifically, Lowndes is not the type of place where it'd make any sense for white voters to be swinging D by a meaningful amount. The fact that they haven't is why Lowndes went from being a quasi-bellwether to being 10+ points to the right of the state beginning in 2016 and closer to 15 points in 2018. Lowndes is also home to VSU, which if youth turnout (which here will be disproportionately black) is up, that can very well explain a meaningful share of any D shift.

[TheLaRocca]

Nothing surprising or enlightening about Muscogee: Biden was always going to get at least 57% and Trump would never fall below 35%. Biden will want to be in the 61-62% range there, though.

Lowndes is far more intriguing. Trump won by 17.4; Romney by 9.9.

Given Black vote and turnout won't be as high for Obama as it was for Biden that means Biden is making serious inroads with GA Whites. Also, consider ATL suburban whites are ALOT more friendly than whites in an area as polarized as this.

Counties like Lowndes and Muscogee are blacker than they were during the Obama years, so that's not necessarily true. Even if black turnout is lower percentage-wise than in the Obama years, higher BVAP means more black voters than would otherwise have existed with the same turnout several years prior; if black interest is even nominally higher than 2016, Obama numbers from black voters can be matched even with lower turnout as a percentage.

More specifically, Lowndes is not the type of place where it'd make any sense for white voters to be swinging D by a meaningful amount. The fact that they haven't is why Lowndes went from being a quasi-bellwether to being 10+ points to the right of the state beginning in 2016 and closer to 15 points in 2018. Lowndes is also home to VSU, which if youth turnout (which here will be disproportionately black) is up, that can very well explain a meaningful share of any D shift.

Biden is out-preforming Abrams in Lowndes no?

[Adam Griffin]

Nothing surprising or enlightening about Muscogee: Biden was always going to get at least 57% and Trump would never fall below 35%. Biden will want to be in the 61-62% range there, though.

Lowndes is far more intriguing. Trump won by 17.4; Romney by 9.9.

Given Black vote and turnout won't be as high for Obama as it was for Biden that means Biden is making serious inroads with GA Whites. Also, consider ATL suburban whites are ALOT more friendly than whites in an area as polarized as this.

Counties like Lowndes and Muscogee are blacker than they were during the Obama years, so that's not necessarily true. Even if black turnout is lower percentage-wise than in the Obama years, higher BVAP means more black voters than would otherwise have existed with the same turnout several years prior; if black interest is even nominally higher than 2016, Obama numbers from black voters can be matched even with lower turnout as a percentage.

More specifically, Lowndes is not the type of place where it'd make any sense for white voters to be swinging D by a meaningful amount. The fact that they haven't is why Lowndes went from being a quasi-bellwether to being 10+ points to the right of the state beginning in 2016 and closer to 15 points in 2018. Lowndes is also home to VSU, which if youth turnout (which here will be disproportionately black) is up, that can very well explain a meaningful share of any D shift.

Biden is out-preforming Abrams in Lowndes no?

No, because we haven't had an election yet and a county poll of probably like 200 people doesn't tell us anything definitive.

Your assumption is built upon the premise that Abrams did notably better with people of color and that any gains now must be coming from whites, when expert data-sets don't suggest she did; the bulk of her gains statewide came from white suburbanites. Youth turnout in particular was still substantially lower in 2018 than in a presidential. Demographic turnover combined with increased youth vote and AVR only now being in full-swing are plenty enough to explain a 4-5 point shift in a county like Lowndes (and even if it weren't, with a poll like this, we're basically within a rounding error of being identical to Abrams performances anyway when factoring in MoE).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah if national polling is accurate then absolutely no chance Trump holds Georgia.

The swing in GA has less to do with national polls than in most states. After MS, it is about as polarised as a state can get.

becoming too diverse

This one has long been overstated as part of the "emerging democratic majority" theory - it ignores that changes within the CVAP are far weaker than changes in the general population ignores the decline of the black population in many states and ignores that what white/black means changes as the demography of a country changes.

and white educated voters shifting from the republicans to the democrats is most of the swing this election.

GA isn't one of the more educated states, I expect the swing among southern white voters to be smaller and there are (weaker, but still significant) shifts running counter to driving forces of the state's Democratic shift; its share of the black belt is losing population, older rural Democrats are still dying off, etc. IIRC in 2018, northern exurban/rural areas snapped back slightly harder than northern suburban areas (although it was still an R trend relative to 2012 numbers) and I see little reason not to expect something close to a repeat of that phenomenon (in terms of 2016->2020 swing). N.B. this is not to say the suburban swing won't be more significant in most states, but that's because the suburbs are more populous, not because rural and small-town Michigan will trend significantly less Democratic.

GA has always been one of the states most likely to swing Democratic, but the size of that swing is limited.