IA CDs - Monmouth: Finkenauer +10, Hart +9, Axne +11, Feenstra +5

[VAR]

RV:
Finkenauer +8
Hart +6
Axne +9
Feenstra +6


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_102220/

[redjohn]

But... IA is solidly Republican and the white working class will never again vote for Democrats

[DINGO Joe]

Dominating.  Good.

[wbrocks67]

But... IA is solidly Republican and the white working class will never again vote for Democrats

Yeah... if these #s are true, then Greenfield/Biden are winning. LV #s are even higher.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 15-20
Changes with July 25-August 3

IA01
352 registered/likely voters
MoE: 5.2%

Registered voters
Finkenauer 52% (+1)
Hinson 44% (+3)
No one 1% (n/c from "Other/none" at 1%)
Undecided 3% (-5)

High turnout model
Finkenauer 54% (+2)
Hinson 44% (+3)

Low turnout model
Finkenauer 56% (+4)
Hinson 42% (+2)

IA02
355 registered/likely voters
MoE: 5.2%

Registered voters
Hart 49% (+5)
Miller-Meeks 43% (-4)
Other 1% (n/c from "Other/none" at 1%)
No one 1%
Undecided 6% (-2)

High turnout model
Hart 51% (+7)
Miller-Meeks 42% (-6)

Low turnout model
Hart 54% (+9)
Miller-Meeks 41% (-7)

IA03
426 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.8%

Registered voters
Axne 52% (+4)
Young 43% (+1)
Other 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Undecided 2% (-4)

"None" previously at 1%

High turnout model
Axne 53% (+3)
Young 42% (n/c)

Low turnout model
Axne 55% (+3)
Young 41% (n/c)

IA04
414 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.8%

Registered voters
Feenstra 48% (-6)
Scholten 42% (+8)
Other 2% (-2 from "Other/none" with 4%)
No one 2%
Undecided 6% (-2)

High turnout model
Feenstra 48% (-7)
Scholten 43% (+9)

Low turnout model
Feenstra 47% (-9)
Scholten 44% (+11)

IA04 looks simply implausible but if Scholten can maintain a strong overperformance even without King on the ticket, he should definitely be recruited to run statewide.

[Xing]

Even given how IA polling has been, not bad numbers for the Democrats. Obviously IA-04 is Safe R, but Democrats are probably at least somewhat favored to hold the other three seats. Hard to see them doing so again in 2022, but I'll enjoy seeing IA-01 and IA-02 go Democratic while I can.

[Young Conservative]

Ok, now I’m not bullish about the GOP’s chances but this is obviously way too democratic friendly. The Feenstra number is enough to conclude that.

[Hope For A New Era]

Queen Abby reigns!

I hope she's ready for a run for Governor or Senator in 2022, though. No way she's holding that seat if there's an R wave.

[indietraveler]

The margins are weird but the results are right. None of these seats are flipping.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

CAN'T SINK THE FINK

[Gracile]

Queen Abby reigns!

I hope she's ready for a run for Governor or Senator in 2022, though. No way she's holding that seat if there's an R wave.

She would have no chance at winning the Governorship or the Senate seat in a Biden midterm.

[Gracile]

Anyway, these numbers seem a touch D-friendly - but given how Close Iowa has apparently been at the Senate/Presidential level I think it's fair to say that none of the Democratic-held seats will flip.

[Benjamin Frank]

Ok, now I’m not bullish about the GOP’s chances but this is obviously way too democratic friendly. The Feenstra number is enough to conclude that.

It's possible.  But, just because the Feenstra numbers seem off doesn't by itself mean the other numbers are off.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Finkenpower!

Hart's got heart!

Axne will axe Young!

That's all I got. I cannot think of anything for the Feenstra-Scholten race.

[VAR]

LMAO.

[WD]

bruh moment

[Sir Mohamed]

Yawn, polling industry is done.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am (now more than) mildly salty I sank so much time into curating polls that proved to be so wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am (now more than) mildly salty I sank so much time into curating polls that proved to be so wrong.

Everyday you kept putting up polls. D's didn't have it in the bag in the Senate

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am (now more than) mildly salty I sank so much time into curating polls that proved to be so wrong.

Everyday you kept putting up polls

I know. I thought they had value

[lfromnj]

So Selzer basically had some big error in iowa 1st with a very small sample but people kept looking at that but the other 3 districts were a touch too D friendly in the poll.

[VAR]

But... IA is solidly Republican and the white working class will never again vote for Democrats

He who laughs have the last laugh

[redjohn]

But... IA is solidly Republican and the white working class will never again vote for Democrats

He who laughs have the last laugh

Yep, I was super wrong about IA. Didn't end up seeing it going to Biden, but seems pretty solidly red for now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Embarrassing. Monmouth got it badly wrong in the Dem Caucus, and they got it badly wrong in the general once more.