WI (RMG Research): Biden +6

[TheLaRocca]

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

(1) Trump is not getting 40% of nonwhites...he will do slightly better than Walker.
(2) yup correct Wisconsin is not only the tipping point state (TBF that's Minnesota) but will vote 3 to 4% to the right of the nation and

(3) potentially more. 50-47 Biden here even in a D wave and +9 Biden environment. The state is gone for the Democrats in less then 2 weeks.

[TheLaRocca]

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

(1) Trump is not getting 40% of nonwhites...he will do slightly better than Walker.
(2) yup correct Wisconsin is not only the tipping point state (TBF that's Minnesota) but will vote 3 to 4% to the right of the nation and

(3) potentially more. 50-47 Biden here even in a D wave and +9 Biden environment. The state is gone for the Democrats in less then 2 weeks.

You keep acting like you know what's going on in Wisconsin, Michigan, and other similar states.  What evidence can you present that these states are realigning so strongly?

voted 2-3% to the right of the nation in 2016
Polling has consistent Biden +10 leads but consistent +4 to 6 in those states

why is this so complicated?

[TheLaRocca]

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

(1) Trump is not getting 40% of nonwhites...he will do slightly better than Walker.
(2) yup correct Wisconsin is not only the tipping point state (TBF that's Minnesota) but will vote 3 to 4% to the right of the nation and

(3) potentially more. 50-47 Biden here even in a D wave and +9 Biden environment. The state is gone for the Democrats in less then 2 weeks.

You keep acting like you know what's going on in Wisconsin, Michigan, and other similar states.  What evidence can you present that these states are realigning so strongly?

voted 2-3% to the right of the nation in 2016
Polling has consistent Biden +10 leads but consistent +4 to 6 in those states

why is this so complicated?

You're acting like how far left or right will automatically remain consistent or automatically trend rightward in every election.

In the case of the midwest and sunbelt yes. It's very apparent what's going on in both regions.

I think after 2020 the Democrats will start to understand the shift...and that Scott Walker, Rick Snyder, Pat Toomey, etc were not "flukes".