redjohn
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,680
Political Matrix E: -3.35, S: -4.17
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« on: October 22, 2020, 10:21:55 AM » |
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I'm 99% sure Biden will win WI. Trump is crashing hard in the suburbs and rural areas aren't going to deliver Trump the same margins he got in 2016. Evers's 2018 win was narrow because he had 100,000 fewer net votes out of southeastern WI than Tammy Baldwin.
WI-05, which has long been a GOP stronghold, is swinging towards Biden and the GOP candidate there will win by a fall smaller margin than in 2018, which was in turn a smaller margin than 2016. Trump isn't going to be able to net enough votes out of northern Wisconsin to make up for the heavy losses in southern and western WI. Biden will win the state, probably handily.
Even if Trump gains tens of thousands of votes in northern, northeast, AND southeastern WI, it's not enough for him to win with Biden slightly rebounding from Clinton's 2016 performance, which he will.
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