Erie County, PA (OurProgressHQ): Biden +12

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/WhosWinning2020/status/1319281236028735488?s=20

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump. 

[wbrocks67]

This actually makes sense. Snapping back quite a bit, but not at Wolf/Casey levels. Which would make sense if Biden was up ~8 statewide

2018 sen: Dem +18
2018 gov: Dem +21
2016 prez: Trump +2

[Panda Express]

Was this poll done before or after Trump held a rally in Erie, complained that he had do it, whined about the cold and left early?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lines up with Kelly's internals only having Trump up 9-10 in his district.

[Malarkey Decider]

Is this the one 538 banned? Or is that a different one?

[psychprofessor]

This is Trump's base - white, working class blue collar manufacturing. This is the data point that speaks to his collapse in upstate NY, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.

[Sir Mohamed]

County will swing back pretty hard, Obama-Trump voters come home to Dems.

[Rand]

SCRANTON JOE!

ERIE JOE!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Banned by 538, with a F rating..

Junk it.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, 538 thinks they make up their numbers. Not sure what the difference is between that and what Trafalger does however.

[Podgy the Bear]

SCRANTON JOE!

ERIE JOE!

PENNSYLVANIA JOE!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump. 

What if this is offset by a 15% swing for TRUMP in Philadelphia County? I lived in New Jersey in the summer which is basically the Philadelphia suburbs and I can confirm there are hundreds of thousands of silent Trump supporters in Philadelphia

[emailking]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump. 

What if this is offset by a 15% swing for TRUMP in Philadelphia County? I lived in New Jersey in the summer which is basically the Philadelphia suburbs and I can confirm there are hundreds of thousands of silent Trump supporters in Philadelphia

If they're silent how can you confirm it?

[Dr. Arch]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump. 

What if this is offset by a 15% swing for TRUMP in Philadelphia County? I lived in New Jersey in the summer which is basically the Philadelphia suburbs and I can confirm there are hundreds of thousands of silent Trump supporters in Philadelphia

You can confirm hundreds of thousands??

This must be an /s post by DTC xD

[Hope For A New Era]

Now that is a Freedom Poll!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump.  

What if this is offset by a 15% swing for TRUMP in Philadelphia County? I lived in New Jersey in the summer which is basically the Philadelphia suburbs and I can confirm there are hundreds of thousands of silent Trump supporters in Philadelphia

You can confirm hundreds of thousands??

This must be an /s post by DTC xD

All of my posts are serious

[emailking]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump. 

What if this is offset by a 15% swing for TRUMP in Philadelphia County? I lived in New Jersey in the summer which is basically the Philadelphia suburbs and I can confirm there are hundreds of thousands of silent Trump supporters in Philadelphia

You can confirm hundreds of thousands??

This must be an /s post by DTC xD

All of my posts are serious

Ok but what are you basing it on? How do you know there are hundreds of thousands of shy Trump supporters in Philly?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's obvious that R polls are going by same day voting like Trafalgar and D polls are including early voting, we have been seeing this dynamic for the entire month, that's why Trump only have a small lead, which can be overcome with VBM

[LabourJersey]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump. 

What if this is offset by a 15% swing for TRUMP in Philadelphia County? I lived in New Jersey in the summer which is basically the Philadelphia suburbs and I can confirm there are hundreds of thousands of silent Trump supporters in Philadelphia

So you met the people who voted for Trump in 2016 and will vote for him again? That means utterly nothing.

[demoman1596]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump. 

What if this is offset by a 15% swing for TRUMP in Philadelphia County? I lived in New Jersey in the summer which is basically the Philadelphia suburbs and I can confirm there are hundreds of thousands of silent Trump supporters in Philadelphia

Anecdotal evidence is not scientific evidence when it comes to determining what public opinion really looks like.  Not only that, but the mountains of scientific evidence we do have shows that what you posted here doesn't connect with reality.  Would you care to try again and provide something any of us can take seriously?  If you're not willing to do that, what was the point of posting?

[GeorgiaModerate]

While county polls aren't usually the greatest in terms of analyzing the state of an electorate, this is still pretty devastating for Trump. 

What if this is offset by a 15% swing for TRUMP in Philadelphia County? I lived in New Jersey in the summer which is basically the Philadelphia suburbs and I can confirm there are hundreds of thousands of silent Trump supporters in Philadelphia

Anecdotal evidence is not scientific evidence when it comes to determining what public opinion really looks like.  Not only that, but the mountains of scientific evidence we do have shows that what you posted here doesn't connect with reality.  Would you care to try again and provide something any of us can take seriously?  If you're not willing to do that, what was the point of posting?

I'm quite sure DTC was being sarcastic.

[President Johnson]

This plus gains in Philly suburbs and strong turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will put Uncle Joe over the top.

[Badger]

Banned by 538, with a F rating..

Junk it.

Damn it. Just as I was getting optimistic

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Banned by 538, with a F rating..

Junk it.

Damn it. Just as I was getting optimistic

It was banned and given the F rating on the basis of previous non-scientific surveys. It has since demarcated these from its newer, scientific ones (including this county poll) but has not yet been successfully vetted by 538 (and it's been more than long enough so it's probable there's somethings suspicious about the pollster, although there doesn't seem to be much wrong with them on the surface).