Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.
Trump had every opportunity to manage the "plague" responsibly and sensibly, and he didn't do that.
If he handled it like any number of other Governors did, he'd be cruising.
It's fair to contrast the media environment each of those governors was in, given that so much of the efficacy of a given policy won't be known for months or years. If Trump had the media coverage Andrew Cuomo inexplicably gets, he would also be cruising no matter what course he took.
Donald Trump's ultimate mistake will be thinking he could ever have been a normal president maintaining a normal relationship with the press.