Morning Consult - a bunch of states

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 11-20
All samples of likely voters
MoE: 2-3% per state
Changes with October 2-11 (I've added them below):

North Carolina - 1904, MoE: 2.2%
Biden 50 (n/c)
Trump 47 (+1)

Michigan - 1717, MoE: 2.4%
Biden 52 (+1)
Trump 44 (n/c)

Florida - 4685, MoE: 1.4%
Biden 52 (+1)
Trump 45 (-1)

Minnesota - 864, MoE: 3.3%
Biden 51 (+1)
Trump 42 (-2)

Georgia - 1672, MoE: 2.4%
Biden 48 (+1)
Trump 48 (-1)

Colorado - 788, MoE: 3.5%
Biden 55 (+1)
Trump 39 (-1)

Arizona - 1066, MoE: 3%
Trump 48 (+2)
Biden 47 (-2)

Ohio - 2271, MoE: 2.1%
Trump 49 (n/c)
Biden 47 (+1)

Pennsylvania - 2563, MoE: 1.9%
Biden 52 (n/c)
Trump 43 (-1)

South Carolina - 926, MoE: 3.2%
Trump 51 (-3)
Biden 45 (+3)

Wisconsin - 1038, MoE: 3%
Biden 54 (+3)
Trump 42 (-2)

Texas - 3347, MoE: 1.7%
Biden 48 (+1)
Trump 47 (-2)

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1319217180471259136/photo/1

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This isn't new.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Who are the 7% of voters voting Biden, but not Hegar, and why?

Is it conservatives who want Trump gone and explicitly want to kneecap him in the Senate? If so, fair enough, but no Biden voter outside of those should be voting for any Republican senator.

Probably people who don't know who Hegar is, but will end up voting for her because she's a Democrat.

This late in the game, these kind of margins can't be so easily dismissed. Most of the down ballot drop-off in polling will disappear on election day but if she remains so anonymous, some voters might just leave the Senate race blank. This appears to be more of a problem for her than Cornyn despite him not being a particularly well-known Senator.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Who are the 7% of voters voting Biden, but not Hegar, and why?

Is it conservatives who want Trump gone and explicitly want to kneecap him in the Senate? If so, fair enough, but no Biden voter outside of those should be voting for any Republican senator.

Probably people who don't know who Hegar is, but will end up voting for her because she's a Democrat.

It's 2020, not 1988. Partisanship is very strong and only getting stronger. Russ Feingold was up in the polls by a decent margin in fall 2016, but lost WI because Hillary lost. McGinty was ahead in PA in 2016 as well, but lost.

We're just over a week out with millions having voted already. This was my take with regards to TXSEN, NCSEN, etc., but the longer those apparently implausible margins hold, the more seriously we're going to have to take them. They'll still overstate things, but some sort of Cornyn overperformance looks quite likely at this point due to (at the very least) a level of down-ballot drop off.