Morning Consult - a bunch of states

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Likely R. Trump +5.

[roxas11]

Likely R. Trump +5.

Trump may still win it in the end but it will definitely not be by +5

At this point this is going to a very close race and I would not be surprised if they winner of the state ends up taking it by less than 1 point

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

413 is assured, Trump is done in TX, Senator HEGAR

[President Johnson]

Don, the Eyes of Texas are upon you,
All the livelong day.
Don, the Eyes of Texas are upon you,
You cannot get away.
Do not think you can escape them
At night or early in the morn --
Don, the Eyes of Texas are upon you
Til Biden blows his horn.

[Brittain33]

I love this song.

Biden is polling better then Beto.

I'm still a bit disappointed that MJ is performing way worse than Biden. I thought it would have tightened a bit.

We’re pulling in so many people who never knew who their senators were and maybe don’t care. Same as MI.

[Alben Barkley]

I told you people Texas was gonna be close.

I never disagreed, but that doesn’t mean the rust belt states are gonna be particularly close either. The camp you seem to be part of that thinks “trends” are everything, that Biden will win by more in Arizona than Michigan or something as a result, is wrong. But so is the camp that thinks states like Texas and Georgia “just aren’t there yet” and Biden’s only path is a 2012-esque rust belt map.

In reality, what will happen is Biden will at least partially revert to 2012 numbers in the rust belt AND continue to make gains in the sun belt which is trending rapidly left. Why? Because non-college whites are shifting away from Trump (if not completely back to 2012 numbers) AND college whites are shifting even more away from him. This has been observed in national, state, and district polls. And it’s pretty much what happened in 2018, so this would just be a natural extension of that.

[Crumpets]

[Lief 🗽]

I hope we are not all deeply regretting Biden's campaign basically ignoring this state on November 4...

[TheLaRocca]

I hope we are not all deeply regretting Biden's campaign basically ignoring this state on November 4...

IMO Biden's biggest mistake of 2020.

Wasserman says slight investments by either party can flip the state.

[Lief 🗽]

I hope we are not all deeply regretting Biden's campaign basically ignoring this state on November 4...

IMO Biden's biggest mistake of 2020.

Wasserman says slight investments by either party can flip the state.

I think if they had known this summer that they'd be raising $10-15 million per day in the fall, they'd have probably planned to do more in Texas. It is a very expensive state to campaign in, but it's still crazy to me that everyone is ignoring a state that is polling at basically a tie and has a ton of important downballot races.

[TheLaRocca]

I hope we are not all deeply regretting Biden's campaign basically ignoring this state on November 4...

IMO Biden's biggest mistake of 2020.

Wasserman says slight investments by either party can flip the state.

I think if they had known this summer that they'd be raising $10-15 million per day in the fall, they'd have probably planned to do more in Texas. It is a very expensive state to campaign in, but it's still crazy to me that everyone is ignoring a state that is polling at basically a tie and has a ton of important downballot races.

Yeah, texas can really go either way at this point. I'd say Trump is slightly favored but its gonna be within 2% either way.

[Rand]

This isn't new.

It deserves its own thread.

[exopolitician]

I hope we are not all deeply regretting Biden's campaign basically ignoring this state on November 4...

He's had a decent ad buy here for awhile, plus Beto and TX Dems have been working their asses off out here. Im not too worried about that.

Did Kamala ever go to Houston?

[Liberalrocks]

Plano Joe!

[Devout Centrist]

I hope we are not all deeply regretting Biden's campaign basically ignoring this state on November 4...

The issue isn't winning Texas, imo. I think Biden has a solid shot to carry the state whether he spends there or not.

The problem is, how many contests are they gonna leave on the table. Could the Democrats have won the Senate race? How many house districts and local contests were lost because Biden didn't invest more?

[TheLaRocca]

ASI (who called 2016, Brexit, and Canadian GE) flips Texas to Biden.

https://advancedsymbolics.com/us-election/

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump leads polling in TX, a state where polls traditionally underestimates Ds (not saying it won;t this cycle, but no "muh 2016" argument. Also, I still think Hegar is an underdog, but undecides look really ripe for her.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm predicting a 49.5-49% Trump victory here. But let's be honest, I won't mind being wrong.

[7,052,770]

Who are the 7% of voters voting Biden, but not Hegar, and why?

Is it conservatives who want Trump gone and explicitly want to kneecap him in the Senate? If so, fair enough, but no Biden voter outside of those should be voting for any Republican senator.

[Tekken_Guy]

Who are the 7% of voters voting Biden, but not Hegar, and why?

Is it conservatives who want Trump gone and explicitly want to kneecap him in the Senate? If so, fair enough, but no Biden voter outside of those should be voting for any Republican senator.

Probably people who don't know who Hegar is, but will end up voting for her because she's a Democrat.

[DrScholl]

I think Hegar has quite the name ID problem, but she could win if she can close hard with Biden voters who haven't decided on the Senate race yet.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Who are the 7% of voters voting Biden, but not Hegar, and why?

Is it conservatives who want Trump gone and explicitly want to kneecap him in the Senate? If so, fair enough, but no Biden voter outside of those should be voting for any Republican senator.

Probably people who don't know who Hegar is, but will end up voting for her because she's a Democrat.

This late in the game, these kind of margins can't be so easily dismissed. Most of the down ballot drop-off in polling will disappear on election day but if she remains so anonymous, some voters might just leave the Senate race blank. This appears to be more of a problem for her than Cornyn despite him not being a particularly well-known Senator.

[tagimaucia]

Trump leads polling in TX, a state where polls traditionally underestimates Ds (not saying it won;t this cycle, but no "muh 2016" argument. Also, I still think Hegar is an underdog, but undecides look really ripe for her.

I really believed that Hegar was only trailing Biden in polls due to very low name ID and that she'd ultimately was going to run incredibly close to Biden and could possibly ride that to a win, but in the couple of crosstabs I've seen of "already voted" in TX, there clearly seems to be an more meaningful Cornyn/Biden crossover vote than I'd thought. Unless something happens to really blow the race further open in the next few weeks and she gets a boost in late early voting/Election Day, I'm starting to think her goose is cooked even if Biden wins TX.

[7,052,770]

Does Hegar need to make the explicit point "If you're voting for Biden, you've got to vote for me too or Biden can't accomplish anything" in her ads? Is it possible that would be counterproductive? Are there even any Trump/Hegar voters anyway?

She's got to get that message out to every Biden voter somehow.

[S019]

"Unbeatable Titan" Cornyn is basically matching Trump's numbers (like he's been doing in every poll). People are genuinely sleeping on the Senate race in Texas.