MT-RMG Research: Trump +4

[President Johnson]

Billings Joe!

I think this will be within single digits, but Trump will win by at least five, more likely seven or eight. All I want from Montana is a Bullock and Cooney win. Williams would be great, too, but Democrats need Bullock in the senate and Punchy Greg defeated.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Montana President by RMG Research on 2020-10-18

Summary: D: 46%, R: 50%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[NOVA Green]

As I noted on the NYT/Sienna MT Poll thread: Montana has same day voter registration.

Hopefully MT DEMs are investing the resources necessary to maximize voter registration in the more heavily Democratic counties in the State.

A significant boost in Native American turnout from '12 to '16 could easily take a +4 Trump lead to a +2 Trump lead.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A significant boost in Native American turnout from '12 to '16 could easily take a +4 Trump lead to a +2 Trump lead.

Given that the (leaderships of) the three biggest tribes in MT endorsed Daines, that might not have the intended effect on the much more important downballot race. It isn't critical at the presidential level.

[MT Treasurer]

Paging MT Treasurer: Should MT be considered Likely R and not Safe R, at this point? I’d be stunned if Biden actually won MT, but it is looking like it’ll swing massively toward the Democrats, even if polls are somewhat off.

It’s Likely R only if you go by margin (although I expect Trump +7, not +4). It’s safe R in terms of likelihood that Republicans hold the state.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden needs to go on deer hunting trip in MT with Bullock, it will make MT titanium D.

[Hope For A New Era]

These polls...

Montana's incumbent-hate...

The extreme D turnout we've been seeing in early voting...

The Montana Democratic Party's legendary turnout capabilities...


I wonder.

[TML]

Biden needs to go on deer hunting trip in MT with Bullock, it will make MT titanium D.

Really? The Senate race there hasn’t been nationalized to the extent that the one in Maine has, and if nationalization of this race increases, it would favor Republicans instead of Democrats.

[NOVA Green]

These polls...

Montana's incumbent-hate...

The extreme D turnout we've been seeing in early voting...

The Montana Democratic Party's legendary turnout capabilities...


I wonder.

Here is a link to a post I made after reviewing the current EV votes from MT by County as of today...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7684515#msg7684515