Morning Consult: Dems lead in AZ/CO/MI/NC/SC, R’s lead in GA/TX

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with October 2-11

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is this the first non-partisan poll showing Harrison ahead?

No. He's been ahead in the Morning Consult tracker before.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The original article made a mistake in suggesting sample sizes were all (as opposed to at least) 788 likely voters. State-by-state figures below:


AZ - 1066, MoE: 3%
CO - 788, MoE: 3.5%
GA - 1672, MoE: 2.4%
MI - 1717, MoE: 2.4%
NC - 1904, MoE: 2.2%
SC - 926, MoE: 3.2%
TX - 3347, MoE: 1.7%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is this the first non-partisan poll showing Harrison ahead?

No. He's been ahead in the Morning Consult tracker before.

I just checked the 538 poll database and that's not true. This is indeed the first non-partisan poll to show him ahead.

The 538 database only holds individual releases. MC didn't release all the polls in their tracker separately, but you can see that there are several points in their rolling average for SCSEN where Harrison exceeds Graham: