Morning Consult: Dems lead in AZ/CO/MI/NC/SC, Rís lead in GA/TX
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  Morning Consult: Dems lead in AZ/CO/MI/NC/SC, Rís lead in GA/TX
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: Dems lead in AZ/CO/MI/NC/SC, Rís lead in GA/TX  (Read 1039 times)
VARep
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« on: October 22, 2020, 05:50:15 AM »

Oct 11-20, 788 LV in each state, MoE: 2-3%

AZ:
Kelly (D) 48% (-1)
McSally (R-inc) 44% (+3)

CO:
Hickenlooper (D) 50% (n/c)
Gardner (R-inc) 42% (+2)

GA:
Perdue (R-inc) 46% (n/c)
Ossoff (D) 44% (+2)

MI:
Peters (D-inc) 48% (-1)
James (R) 42% (+2)

NC:
Cunningham (D) 48% (+1)
Tillis (R-inc) 42% (+1)

SC:
Harrison (D) 47% (+5)
Graham (R-inc) 45% (-3)

TX:
Cornyn (R-inc) 46% (-1)
Hegar (D) 41% (+3)

https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/22/senate-race-polling-north-carolina-texas-arizona-south-carolina/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2020, 05:59:35 AM »

Their AZ polling has been a bit erratic but nothing else really stands out terribly out of step (besides TX still having ridiculous amounts of undecideds)

Not surprised with SC - their last poll was clearly an outlier (as was the NYT/Siena poll) and Harrison up a smidge lines up with basically everything else we're seeing there
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2020, 06:03:47 AM »

Changes with October 2-11
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2020, 06:26:38 AM »

Harrison is clearly gonna be the next Senator
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2020, 07:01:49 AM »

Is this the first non-partisan poll showing Harrison ahead?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2020, 07:53:13 AM »

Harrison is clearly gonna be the next Senator

"clearly"
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2020, 07:58:28 AM »

LOL @ Graham doing worse then Perdue and Cornyn
Inb4 IndyRep
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I'm a (leaning towards) Malcolm Kenyatta Democrat
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 08:03:08 AM »

If Democrats win statewide in SC but not GA, the world may cease to exist
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 08:09:50 AM »

Great poll for Harrison. Got my vote in for him yesterday. I hope he wins it!
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 08:27:24 AM »

AK, GA, IA, KS, MT and SC remain Tossups, I don't know why Crystal ball hasn't moved SC to tossup and Cook political report has
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 08:42:08 AM »

Is this the first non-partisan poll showing Harrison ahead?
No. He's been ahead in the Morning Consult tracker before.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 09:13:04 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 09:19:58 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

The original article made a mistake in suggesting sample sizes were all (as opposed to at least) 788 likely voters. State-by-state figures below:


AZ - 1066, MoE: 3%
CO - 788, MoE: 3.5%
GA - 1672, MoE: 2.4%
MI - 1717, MoE: 2.4%
NC - 1904, MoE: 2.2%
SC - 926, MoE: 3.2%
TX - 3347, MoE: 1.7%
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 09:19:37 AM »

Happy about most of these, though am not sure how McSally gained so much, though that might just be usual error.
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MR. NAPHTHALI BENNETT
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2020, 09:26:49 AM »

Happy about most of these, though am not sure how McSally gained so much, though that might just be usual error.

It seems like Morning Consult just ended up with a good sample for the GOP in Arizona this time. They have an abrupt shift to Trump in their Presidential topline too.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2020, 09:36:25 AM »

Oh please, let Graham losing. That would be bittersweet. None in DC deserves it more than this dude.

Peters is definitely in good shape and the sexting scandal hasn't sunk Cunningham much, if at all.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 09:44:43 AM »

Yeah these are junk....

Harrison has faded in recent weeks. SC is Likely R
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Diogenes of Bethesda
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2020, 09:47:45 AM »

Yeah these are junk....

Harrison has faded in recent weeks. SC is Likely R

Hey you lil' piss baby, you think you're so ing cool?
Huh?
You think you're so ing tough?
You talk a lotta big game for someone with such a small truck
Aw, look at those arms
Your arms look so ing cute
They look like lil' cigarettes
I bet I could smoke you
I could roast you
And then you'd love it and you'd text me "I love you" and then I'd ing ghost you
With the big boys coming with the big stuff
I feel so clean like a money machine, oh yeah
Big boys coming with the big trucks
Feel so clean like a money machine, oh yeah
Big boys coming with the big trucks
Feel so clean like a money machine, oh yeah
Big boys coming with the picture
Feel so clean like a money machine, oh yeah (oh yeah)
Feel so clean, like a money machine
Feel so clean, like a money machine
Feel so clean, like a money machine
Feel so clean, like a money machine
Tell me what's the deal, I've been trying to go to bed
I've been up for days, I've been tryna get ahead
Said it all before, and I'll say it once again
I'm better off alone
Tell me what's the deal, I've been trying to go to bed
I've been up for days, I've been tryna get ahead
Said it all before, and I'll say it once again
I'm better off alone
With the big boys coming with the big stuff
I feel so clean like a money machine, oh yeah
Big boys coming with the big trucks
Feel so clean like a money machine, oh yeah
Big boys coming with the big trucks
Feel so clean like a money machine, oh yeah
Big boys coming with the picture
Feel so clean like a money machine, oh yeah (oh yeah)
Feel so clean, like a money machine
Feel so clean, like a money machine
Feel so clean, like a money machine
Feel so clean, like a money machine
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 10:45:32 AM »

Is this the first non-partisan poll showing Harrison ahead?
No. He's been ahead in the Morning Consult tracker before.

I just checked the 538 poll database and that's not true. This is indeed the first non-partisan poll to show him ahead.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2020, 10:47:38 AM »

Is this the first non-partisan poll showing Harrison ahead?
No. He's been ahead in the Morning Consult tracker before.

I just checked the 538 poll database and that's not true. This is indeed the first non-partisan poll to show him ahead.

The 538 database only holds individual releases. MC didn't release all the polls in their tracker separately, but you can see that there are several points in their rolling average for SCSEN where Harrison exceeds Graham:

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SWE
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 10:49:41 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 11:38:23 AM by SWE »

If Harrison actually pulled this off that would make South Carolina the first state in history to have two African-American senators
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2020, 10:53:12 AM »

Lean D takeovers AZ, CO, NC and SC
Tossup AK, GA, KS, IA, ME, MT
Likely R KY, TX

NC and SC are likelier to go D than IA or ME
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2020, 10:55:34 AM »

Yeah these are junk....

Harrison has faded in recent weeks. SC is Likely R

Actually, NC and SC are likelier to go D than IA and ME the females have moderate appeal
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2020, 02:06:50 PM »

Yeah these are junk....

Harrison has faded in recent weeks. SC is Likely R
Y'all are nutty. You don't even live in SC. The enthusiasm is off the charts for Jaime.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2020, 06:09:14 PM »

The leads make sense here, but some of the numbers are a bit wonky. I don't personally believe that Kelly wins by double-digits but he will surely do better than here.

Harrison seems to have quite a lot of momentum though. Will it be enough for him to upset Graham on election day though?
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Senator Scott, PPT
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2020, 06:15:23 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 06:24:37 PM by Scott🕷️ »

Yeah these are junk....

Harrison has faded in recent weeks. SC is Likely R
Y'all are nutty. You don't even live in SC. The enthusiasm is off the charts for Jaime.

How the hell is this race so competitive, though? It's one of the few areas of the coastal South where, if my facts are correct, the fastest growing areas are the most Republican. From an outsider's perspective it seems that people, including loyal Republicans, are just sick of Lindsey Graham; he is a massive hypocrite promoting a type of conservatism that is losing favor with the base.
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