MN - SurveyUSA/KSTP: Biden +6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20398303/surveyusa-october-21-senate-race.pdf

Courtesy of neostassenite, this one's hidden in the crosstabs of the Senate poll

October 16-20
625 likely voters
MoE: 5%
Changes with October 1-6 SUSA poll for ABC6 News

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 42% (+2)

[EJ24]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20398303/surveyusa-october-21-senate-race.pdf

Courtesy of neostassenite, this one's hidden in the crosstabs of the Senate poll

October 16-20
625 likely voters
MoE: 5%
Changes with October 1-6 SUSA poll for ABC6 News

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 42% (+2)

Final result here gonna be Biden +8-10%

[Buzz]

I think Biden will win MN 51-47.

[neostassenite31]

I think Biden will win MN 51-47.

The 2004 redux

[Bootes Void]

Biden wins Minnesota by 12 points

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Smith will win this like Biden does, plus 6

[Rand]

Biden will have no problem in the Great Lakes region.

[TheLaRocca]

Yeah, this is like the third straight Minnesota poll that has it within 5 or 6.

Pretty obvious Biden is ahead by like 6 lol.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah, this is like the third straight Minnesota poll that has it within 5 or 6.

No, it isn't. Excluding SurveyMonkey and the PureSpectrum poll (which show even bigger leads), today's Morning Consult has Biden +9%, Civiqs has Biden +10%, Change Research (not much better than SurveyMonkey/PureSpectrum) has Biden +5%, David Binder has Biden +11% (with a bad sample size), the previous Morning Consult poll had Biden +6% and the previous SUSA poll has Biden +7%. Those are all of the October MN polls.

[TheLaRocca]

Yeah, this is like the third straight Minnesota poll that has it within 5 or 6.

No, it isn't. Excluding SurveyMonkey and the PureSpectrum poll (which show even bigger leads), today's Morning Consult has Biden +9%, Civiqs has Biden +10%, Change Research (not much better than SurveyMonkey/PureSpectrum) has Biden +5%, David Binder has Biden +11% (with a bad sample size), the previous Morning Consult poll had Biden +6% and the previous SUSA poll has Biden +7%. Those are all of the October MN polls.

Okay but the 15% one is obviously fake news.

The rest is an average of about 7 or 8. Considering Republicans outrun polling (Minnesota had the biggest Trump outperformance of any midwestern state last time) it's def 5 or 6.

Funny how Minnesota became a "giant suburb" as soon as the Democrats started losing ground (and fast) there.

[TheLaRocca]

Clinton was ahead every single Minnesota poll by 5 or more except for one from Gravis lol.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah, this is like the third straight Minnesota poll that has it within 5 or 6.

No, it isn't. Excluding SurveyMonkey and the PureSpectrum poll (which show even bigger leads), today's Morning Consult has Biden +9%, Civiqs has Biden +10%, Change Research (not much better than SurveyMonkey/PureSpectrum) has Biden +5%, David Binder has Biden +11% (with a bad sample size), the previous Morning Consult poll had Biden +6% and the previous SUSA poll has Biden +7%. Those are all of the October MN polls.

Okay but the 15% one is obviously fake news.

Agreed, it's not likely to be 15%. It's also not likely to be 5% at this point in the race and ABC/WaPo at least have a lot more credibility than Change Research.

The rest is an average of about 7 or 8. Considering Republicans outrun polling (Minnesota had the biggest Trump outperformance of any midwestern state last time) it's def 5 or 6.

It can't be guaranteed that they'll consistently outrun polling when it comes to polls which weight properly by education. Republicans overperforming their polling in the midwest was a matter of undecided voters breaking heavily in their favour post-Comey letter and there's a host of reasons that's unlikely to happen this time around.

Funny how Minnesota became a "giant suburb" as soon as the Democrats started losing ground (and fast) there.

I've never disputed MN is going to be a good target for Republicans in the future and have always maintained it should have been part of Trump's 2020 electoral strategy (it still should). The problems are twofold: one, Trump is losing pretty badly anyway, so even in a potential tipping point like MN, he's behind by a fair bit more than 5%; two, MN has a fair number of persuadable voters relative to states like GA and Biden seems to be doing a decent job of winning over the swingy portion of the electorate.

[wbrocks67]

Clinton was ahead every single Minnesota poll by 5 or more except for one from Gravis lol.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html

and every single poll underestimated Dems in 2018 except for NBC/Marist

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_special_election_housley_vs_smith-6303.html

[Storr]

I think Biden will win MN 51-47.

I'll take it.

[Beet]

Looks about right. I think Biden narrowly ekes it out 49%-47% thanks to the Twin Cities, but he gets shellacked everywhere else.

[Gass3268]

Looks about right. I think Biden narrowly ekes it out 49%-47% thanks to the Twin Cities, but he gets shellacked everywhere else.

Lol, not if MN-01 is competative as it is.

[TheLaRocca]

The suburbs, national environment (Biden has a 9 point national lead lmfao), and other factors will give Biden a 6 point or so win in Minnesota.

But the conservative trends of this state make Trump much stronger here than liberals here really grasp. Trump is pretty strong in the Iron Range and northern Minnesota. fear of Illihan Omar/"socialism"/BLM/environmentalism will cause record turnout up there and make the state competitive even in a national D wave.

[Hammy]

Clinton was ahead every single Minnesota poll by 5 or more except for one from Gravis lol.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html

and every single poll underestimated Dems in 2018 except for NBC/Marist

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_special_election_housley_vs_smith-6303.html

Seems like a recurring problem with them--they were also the only one that didn't show Wisconsin being close.

[forza nocta]

Clinton was ahead every single Minnesota poll by 5 or more except for one from Gravis lol.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html

There were only 2 polls conducted there after September lol and 4/5 post convention polls were done by the same two pollsters. Barely any polling there at all in 2016, unlike now

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Minnesota President by Survey USA on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details