PureSpectrum/COVID-19 Consortium: Biden +10% and 50 states+DC (wins with an odd 413 map)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:43:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  PureSpectrum/COVID-19 Consortium: Biden +10% and 50 states+DC (wins with an odd 413 map)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: PureSpectrum/COVID-19 Consortium: Biden +10% and 50 states+DC (wins with an odd 413 map)  (Read 1767 times)
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2020, 08:09:07 PM »

The topline number looks fine, but it's never a good idea to assume you can break a national poll down into states. Also its a month and a half old.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2020, 08:11:04 PM »

The topline number looks fine, but it's never a good idea to assume you can break a national poll down into states. Also its a month and a half old.

It's not normally a good idea, I'll agree, but they claim to have weighted for individual states.

This is now my favourite take on what "the 413 map" really means. When Biden said "return to normalcy," we just didn't appreciate how far he intended to reverse trends.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2020, 08:13:35 PM »

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

The Survey Monkey numbers actually seem far more plausible to me. If someone told me their numbers were the final results, or that they were from a higher quality pollster, I would not be surprised at all.

They're plausible in bulk but individual results can be very odd. Their LV results consistently have Biden down by only about 6% in Nebraska. That is shocking and I'd have expected more statewide polling if the sorts of shifts necessary for that to happen were really going on.
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2020, 08:14:23 PM »

Imagine if this actually ends up being the map? That would be hilarious
Even in this map, the Senate would still be safe Republican.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 21, 2020, 08:15:16 PM »

Imagine if this actually ends up being the map? That would be hilarious
Even in this map, the Senate would still be safe Republican.

Wat

The Senate is Likely Democratic NOW.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,575


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 21, 2020, 08:16:39 PM »

Imagine if this actually ends up being the map? That would be hilarious
Even in this map, the Senate would still be safe Republican.

Biden's winning the AZ, CO, and NC, and therefore Ds would likely win those 3 races. Biden would be winning TX, AK, and GA by enough to get Dems across the finish line in those races. There's also a  really good chance Bullock wins too, just with a slight overperformance.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 21, 2020, 08:17:04 PM »

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

The Survey Monkey numbers actually seem far more plausible to me. If someone told me their numbers were the final results, or that they were from a higher quality pollster, I would not be surprised at all.

They're plausible in bulk but individual results can be very odd. Their LV results consistently have Biden down by only about 6% in Nebraska. That is shocking and I'd have expected more statewide polling if the sorts of shifts necessary for that to happen were really going on.

Well they’re pretty much the only ones polling Nebraska so hard to say. For what it’s worth, Morning Consult tracker consistently found Trump with a pretty medicore approval rating in Nebraska, something I found interesting. Plus, it’s not really that different from Kansas, and everyone seems to agree that’s swung left.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 21, 2020, 08:22:19 PM »

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

The Survey Monkey numbers actually seem far more plausible to me. If someone told me their numbers were the final results, or that they were from a higher quality pollster, I would not be surprised at all.

They're plausible in bulk but individual results can be very odd. Their LV results consistently have Biden down by only about 6% in Nebraska. That is shocking and I'd have expected more statewide polling if the sorts of shifts necessary for that to happen were really going on.

Well they’re pretty much the only ones polling Nebraska so hard to say. For what it’s worth, Morning Consult tracker consistently found Trump with a pretty medicore approval rating in Nebraska, something I found interesting. Plus, it’s not really that different from Kansas, and everyone seems to agree that’s swung left.

Democrats haven't really had the same kind of success in NE they've had in KS recently. I think the lack of other polls here speaks for itself - there could well be a Democratic trend, but I doubt it's anywhere near that strong or else we would probably have seen serious recruitment in the Senate election as opposed to the primary that produced Janicek and an abandoned write-in bid from one of the biggest names in the Nebraska Democratic Party. Sasse seems like the sort of incumbent who could be vulnerable were his state not titanium R (which it is).

There was one NE-01 poll from Kate Bolz's campaign in July and there could be an upset there, but with a +6% margin statewide, I'd have expected her campaign to be publishing more surveys too.
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 21, 2020, 08:28:26 PM »

Imagine if this actually ends up being the map? That would be hilarious
Even in this map, the Senate would still be safe Republican.

Wat

The Senate is Likely Democratic NOW.
The Senate is Tilt Republican in my opinion. There is too much ticket-splitting in Maine, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, which will doom the Democrats and allow Mitch McConnell to carry out his dirty tricks until at least 2026.
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,783
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 21, 2020, 08:50:01 PM »

Imagine if this actually ends up being the map? That would be hilarious
Even in this map, the Senate would still be safe Republican.
In this map if there were no states that ended up voting for different parties at the senate and presidential level the result would be a 55-45 D majority.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 22, 2020, 01:05:28 AM »

I can see Alaska in play; Texas definitely is. Biden obviously will win Iowa before he wins Alaska or either Dakota.
Logged
TheTide
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,599
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 22, 2020, 04:16:19 AM »

If Biden wins the Dakotas he'll also win IA, MT, ME, IN, UT, KS, SC, MO and maybe AR and LA too. If Trump wins Maine-at-Large then he'll win PA, MI, OH, WI, IA, MN, TX, GA, FL, GA, NC, NH and maybe NV whilst running close in VA and CO and thus win re-election.

There are much more possible Biden ~400 maps.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 22, 2020, 04:20:17 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 05:11:17 AM by Crumpets »

First [the Dakotas] ignore you.
Then [the Dakotas] laugh at you.
Then [the Dakotas] fight you.
Then you win [the Dakotas].
Logged
S019ian Liberal
Beacon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2020, 12:51:04 AM »

There was one NE-01 poll from Kate Bolz's campaign in July and there could be an upset there, but with a +6% margin statewide, I'd have expected her campaign to be publishing more surveys too.
BLUE LINCOLN!!!
Logged
S019ian Liberal
Beacon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2020, 12:51:37 AM »

Imagine if this actually ends up being the map? That would be hilarious
Even in this map, the Senate would still be safe Republican.

Wat

The Senate is Likely Democratic NOW.
The Senate is Tilt Republican in my opinion. There is too much ticket-splitting in Maine, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, which will doom the Democrats and allow Mitch McConnell to carry out his dirty tricks until at least 2026.
ticket splitting could help trump in MI
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,809
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: October 24, 2020, 01:45:12 AM »

Dakota's and MT aren't voting to left of Iowa
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: October 24, 2020, 03:19:49 AM »

Isn't that essentially the Bartlet re-election map from The West Wing?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: October 24, 2020, 03:32:16 AM »

100-year old polls.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 13 queries.