PureSpectrum/COVID-19 Consortium: Biden +10% and 50 states+DC (wins with an odd 413 map)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://www.kateto.net/covid19/COVID19%20CONSORTIUM%20REPORT%2016%20MAIL%20OCT%202020.pdf

August 7 - September 27
26838 likely voters
Changes with June 12-28

Biden 50% (+3)
Trump 40% (+1)

Why such a large sample size? Well, they've posted margins for all 50 states including breakdowns for VBM/non-VBM in each state (they do claim to have weighted properly for all states in their respective results).

The report tries to analyse 3 issues:

• How many people report that they will vote by mail in each state?
• What will be the difference in candidate choice between those who vote
on the day of the election versus those who vote by mail?
• What is the potential shift in the margin between Trump and Biden from the day of voting to a count that incorporates votes received by mail?

All sample sizes and results posted below are for likely voters. I assume Biden keeps ME-01 but loses ME-02 with the statewide margin; I also assume he takes NE-02 but loses the other two districts with NE's margin. I leave MT as a tossup.

AK - 161 - Biden +11%
AL - 590 - Trump +21%
AR - 383 - Trump +9%
AZ - 628 - Biden +3%
CA - 1147 - Biden +27%
CO - 551 - Biden +10%
CT - 518 - Biden +19%
DC - 365 - Biden +53%
DE - 398 - Biden +18%
FL - 869 - Biden +13%
GA - 726 - Biden +5%
HI - 280 - Biden +3%
IA - 402 - Trump +1%
ID - 355 - Trump +23%
IL - 716 - Biden +18%
IN - 542 - Trump +4%
KS - 446 - Trump +14%
KY - 511 - Trump +16%
LA - 448 - Trump +1%
MA - 706 - Biden +31%
MD - 747 - Biden +32%
ME - 380 - Trump +2%
MI - 668 - Biden +12%
MN - 604 - Biden +15%
MO - 667 - Trump +15%
MS - 448 - Trump +8%
MT - 304 - TIE
NC - 683 - Biden +3%
ND - 214 - Biden +4%
NE - 375 - Trump +9%
NH - 316 - Biden +22%
NJ - 652 - Biden +26%
NM - 407 - Biden +25%
NV - 487 - Biden +15%
NY - 847 - Biden +22%
OH - 677 - Biden +6%
OK - 537 - Trump +21%
OR - 595 - Biden +11%
PA - 679 - Biden +7%
RI - 347 - Biden +31%
SC - 508 - Trump +3%
SD - 193 - Biden +2%
TN - 649 - Trump +15%
TX - 982 - Biden +7%
UT - 451 - Trump +21%
VA - 701 - Biden +13%
VT - 161 - Biden +28%
WA - 657 - Biden +24%
WI - 592 - Biden +15%
WV - 439 - Trump +29%
WY - 130 - Trump +35%

In map form:

[TheLaRocca]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

[TheLaRocca]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

lol didint see the full map. only looked at topline (50-41).

Obviously Bidens not winning OH/Dakotas IMO.

[Buzz]

Lol at some of those state margins.  Junk

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Some of those small sample size results are, um, something.

[exopolitician]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

lol didint see the full map. Off then due to the Dakotas.

But also Biden winning Alaska by 11. This is a dumpster fire.

[Bootes Void]

Biden winning Florida by 13?

lmao

[TheLaRocca]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

lol didint see the full map. Off then due to the Dakotas.

But also Biden winning Alaska by 11. This is a dumpster fire.

Yeah Trash it. Literally just looked at topline not state numbers lmfao.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

lol didint see the full map. Off then due to the Dakotas.

But also Biden winning Alaska by 11. This is a dumpster fire.

On the contrary, it's a great illustration of the difference in quality from having decent sample sizes vs. ones that are too small.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

JOBP

Just one big poll.

All of the states with sample sizes below 500 should be ignored. Not sure about the ones with higher sample sizes either quite frankly... this poll is weeeird  

[Stuart98]

This is pretty funny. Tossing it into the incinerator while laughing about it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

+4% in ND? I don’t think so

[ProgressiveModerate]

Imagine if this actually ends up being the map? That would be hilarious

[AGA]

#SwingyDakotas

[ProgressiveModerate]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

lol didint see the full map. Off then due to the Dakotas.

But also Biden winning Alaska by 11. This is a dumpster fire.

No, Biden is up by 11% in AK according to the poll.

[morgieb]

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? The f**k?

[Alben Barkley]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

It is not at all possible that Biden wins the Dakotas or loses Maine.

[skbl17]

The national (Biden +10) topline is plausible and not far out of line with the polling averages, but yeah, a lot of these state margins are trash. Hawaii and the Dakotas lol.

[Alben Barkley]

Very possible. To Biden friendly in the midwest tho.

Winning the Dakotas while losing Iowa? Only winning Hawaii by 3 points? I think not.

It's probably better data than SurveyMonkey but not by much at the state level, given the small sample sizes.

The Survey Monkey numbers actually seem far more plausible to me. If someone told me their numbers were the final results, or that they were from a higher quality pollster, I would not be surprised at all.

[Asta]

This kind of survey reminds of Google Consumer Survey from 2016 when they had really funky results, like WI +16 Clinton but the overall national margin showed +2 Clinton, which was actually accurate.

As Nate Silver himself said, one huge poll consisting of 50 states to extrapolate each state margin is not the same as 50 separate state polls. However, the national margin even in this kind of poll is still useful because errors eventually cancel out each other in a huge sample.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Really Biden ahead in ND but behind in Iowa is fiction

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Imagine if this actually ends up being the map? That would be hilarious

278 friewall ----> 413 friewall.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Really Biden ahead in ND but behind in Iowa is fiction

You're...right...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I have questions.