MN (KSTP/SurveyUSA) Smith +1

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release:

https://kstp.com/politics/kstpsurveyusa-smith-lewis-senate-race-now-a-dead-heat-october-21-2020/5901843/

October 16-20
625 likely voters
MoE: 5%

It seems they didn't poll the presidential race.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

WTF? Isn't Jason Lewis the guy who literally defended slavery once when he was a right-wing talk radio host? How is this even competitive at all?!

He didn't actually defend slavery although the point he was making was almost as stupid, he was referring to the point that there's no reason to oppose same-sex marriage because it doesn't negatively impact anyone else...and compared that to someone arguing that anyone who isn't a slave shouldn't argue against slavery because it doesn't personally negatively impact them.

Anyway this is definitely an outlier and one thing we learned from the 2018 Attorney General race was that undecideds in MN in this type of environment will swing D at the end, see how Keith Ellison went from like this or even behind in all polls to only underperforming Walz by like three points. And Smith was up that year too and won pretty comfortably. Also the crosstabs here show 40% Trump voters in 2016, 37% Hillary, and 34R-32D, uh huh...

[neostassenite31]

Looks like this poll has the presidential at Biden+5 or +6 (48%/47%-42%) as well. Underperformance?

[jamestroll]

WTF? Isn't Jason Lewis the guy who literally defended slavery once when he was a right-wing talk radio host? How is this even competitive at all?!

He didn't actually defend slavery although the point he was making was almost as stupid, he was referring to the point that there's no reason to oppose same-sex marriage because it doesn't negatively impact anyone else...and compared that to someone arguing that anyone who isn't a slave shouldn't argue against slavery because it doesn't personally negatively impact them.

Anyway this is definitely an outlier and one thing we learned from the 2018 Attorney General race was that undecideds in MN in this type of environment will swing D at the end, see how Keith Ellison went from like this or even behind in all polls to only underperforming Walz by like three points. And Smith was up that year too and won pretty comfortably. Also the crosstabs here show 40% Trump voters in 2016, 37% Hillary, and 34R-32D, uh huh...

Don't you know MN is a solid GOP state?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looks like this poll has the presidential at Biden+5 or +6 (48%/47%-42%) as well. Underperformance?

Where are you seeing that?

[neostassenite31]

Looks like this poll has the presidential at Biden+5 or +6 (48%/47%-42%) as well. Underperformance?

Where are you seeing that?

The "POTUS Vote" tabs in the full result
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20398303/surveyusa-october-21-senate-race.pdf
 

[MT Treasurer]

Don't you know MN is a solid GOP state?

No, because literally no one said that. The consensus on this forum is that Republicans face an uphill battle in MN at the statewide/federal level, but you of course know this.

[neostassenite31]

Don't you know MN is a solid GOP state?

No, because literally no one said that. The consensus on this forum is that Republicans face an uphill battle in MN at the statewide/federal level, but you of course know this.

MN is a safe red state and will vote to the right of both MO and IA. MN is more white than both IA and MO, and with clear recent trends Trump will likely defeat Biden by 20%-25% in MN (very much like ND and SD). This would be an actual description of Minnesota if the seven county metro area is detached and ceded to Wisconsin

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

WTF? Isn't Jason Lewis the guy who literally defended slavery once when he was a right-wing talk radio host? How is this even competitive at all?!

I am not familiar with the exact quote in question, but on the whole Lewis was the most reasonable of the talk show hosts that aired locally in the early 2010s. This would be Glenn, Rush, Hannity and then him at 6 PM.

[Ljube]

Tina Smith is a hack. Totally phony. That should impact her chances and I hope she loses. Just compare her with the other senator from Minnesota and you will understand why she is struggling.

[LiberalDem19]

15% undecided is pretty high

[wbrocks67]

Time to ignore that Smith +11 poll from yesterday and act like this is the only one that exists!

[Suburbia]

She’ll win this year, but she’s incredibly lucky that she’s not up for reelection in 2022.

This. If she was up in 2022, she would be finished.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tina Smith is a hack. Totally phony. That should impact her chances and I hope she loses. Just compare her with the other senator from Minnesota and you will understand why she is struggling.

She's a generic D.

[Badger]

Remember folks... JOP

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Minnesota Senator by Survey USA on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 43%, R: 42%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Badger]

WTF? Isn't Jason Lewis the guy who literally defended slavery once when he was a right-wing talk radio host? How is this even competitive at all?!

I am not familiar with the exact quote in question, but on the whole Lewis was the most reasonable of the talk show hosts that aired locally in the early 2010s. This would be Glenn, Rush, Hannity and then him at 6 PM.

That's like saying herpes was the best venereal disease compared to syphilis, gonorrhea, and HIV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

WAAAYYYYY too many undecides is all I have to say.