Fox polls MI B+12,WI B+5,PA B+5,OH T+3
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  Fox polls MI B+12,WI B+5,PA B+5,OH T+3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Fox polls MI B+12,WI B+5,PA B+5,OH T+3  (Read 2407 times)
Spark
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« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2020, 05:39:11 PM »
Biden's lead is falling.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2020, 05:40:59 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 21, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
So today we got (I'm including leaners for all C rated or better polls):

Florida:
Civiqs - Biden +4
CNN - Biden +4
Ipsos - Biden +5
Average - Biden +4.33%

Michigan:
DFP - Biden +5
Fox - Biden +12
Average - Biden +8.5

Pennsylvania:
CNN - Biden +10
Fox - Biden +5
Quinnipiac - Biden +8
Suffolk - Biden +6
Average - Biden +7.25

Wisconsin:
Fox - Biden +5
Latino Decisions - Biden +5
Susquehanna - Biden +1
Average - Biden +3.67

Would like to see some more polls out of Wisconsin, but otherwise things look pretty good.

Don't forget Iowa:

Emerson - Trump +2
NYT/Siena - Biden +3
Monmouth - Biden +3 and +5 (different LV models)
Average - Biden +2.25
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mijan
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« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2020, 05:41:05 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2020, 05:49:21 PM by mijan »
Little dissapointed with OH, but as long as Biden will lead MI, WI, PA by 5 and above, I will be glad.
Joe Biden should hammer ads in OH in coming days.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2020, 05:42:22 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 21, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
So today we got (I'm including leaners for all C rated or better polls):

Florida:
Civiqs - Biden +4
CNN - Biden +4
Ipsos - Biden +5
Average - Biden +4.33%

Michigan:
DFP - Biden +5
Fox - Biden +12
Average - Biden +8.5

Pennsylvania:
CNN - Biden +10
Fox - Biden +5
Quinnipiac - Biden +8
Suffolk - Biden +6
Average - Biden +7.25

Wisconsin:
Fox - Biden +5
Latino Decisions - Biden +5
Susquehanna - Biden +1
Average - Biden +3.67

Would like to see some more polls out of Wisconsin, but otherwise things look pretty good.

Yeah so Biden is already doing better in FL than Wisconsin.

Interesting since Wisconsin is the most Democrat of those three.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #29 on: October 21, 2020, 05:44:52 PM »
The Trumpers and doomers in here grasping at straws. It's just pathetic.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #30 on: October 21, 2020, 05:50:54 PM »
Quote from: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on October 21, 2020, 05:44:52 PM
The Trumpers and doomers in here grasping at straws. It's just pathetic.

I said

MI/PA/MI +4D lol

I expect AZ and GA to flip too.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #31 on: October 21, 2020, 06:03:11 PM »

Um no.

+5 in Wisconsin is a massive national lead for the Democrats lmfao.

Biden was never more than that in Wisconsin.
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Badger
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« Reply #32 on: October 21, 2020, 06:03:37 PM »
Quote from: demoman1596 on October 21, 2020, 05:38:32 PM
Quote from: TheLaRocca on October 21, 2020, 05:22:12 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on October 21, 2020, 05:20:55 PM
Quote from: TheLaRocca on October 21, 2020, 05:13:23 PM
Quote from: Figueira on October 21, 2020, 05:07:43 PM
Michigan: Biden 52, Trump 40
Ohio: Biden 45, Trump 48
Pennsylvania: Biden 50, Trump 45
Wisconsin: Biden 49, Trump 44

Great news for Biden in Michigan, not that great elsewhere.

Democrats won't ever win Michigan by over 5 for the next 20-30 years in a pres race (unless there breaking 10% in the PV).

Ya'll don't seem to understand how far right Michigan has trended.

Boy, do I have news for you...

(And it's not just that it's "they're.")

Auto-correct.

Okay, let's discuss James coming close as an unknown and Michigans conservative trends in the 2010s?
Michigan has, at best, trended weakly conservative through the 2010s by almost certainly fewer than 5 percentage points.  It looks like Michigan's Cook PVI in 2008 was D+5 and is now D+1.  The state simply hasn't changed that much, despite what 2016's result seems to have led you to believe.

You're trying 2 bass things based on changes from democratic high water marks in 2006 and 2008, the entire country damn near shifted right. This proves little.
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VAR
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« Reply #33 on: October 21, 2020, 06:13:08 PM »
Trump approval:
MI: 44/55 (-11)
OH: 50/49 (+1)
PA: 48/52 (-4)
WI: 47/52 (-5)

Trump favorability:
MI: 43/56 (-13)
OH: 48/51 (-3)
PA: 46/54 (-8)
WI: 45/54 (-9)

Biden favorability:
MI: 53/45 (+8)
OH: 50/48 (+2)
PA: 54/45 (+9)
WI: 51/48 (+3)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #34 on: October 21, 2020, 06:34:12 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2020, 08:07:20 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
October 17-20

MI
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/10/Fox_October-17-20-2020_Complete_Michigan_Topline_October-21-Release.pdf

1032 likely voters
MoE: 3%

Biden 52%
Trump 40%
Jorgensen 3%
Other 2%
Hawkins 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
Don't know 3%

Among 1104 registered voters for comparison's sake
MoE: 3%
Changes with July 18-20

Biden 51% (+2)
Trump 40% (n/c)
Jorgensen 3% (not previously included)
Other 2% (-1)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (not previously included)
Would not vote 1% (n/c)
Don't know 3% (-4)

OH
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/10/Fox_October-17-20-2020_Complete_Ohio_Topline_October-21-Release.pdf

1018 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Changes with September 20-23

Trump 48% (+3)
Biden 45% (-5)
Jorgensen 3% (+2)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Other 1% (+1 from at 0% with some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters) (n/c)
Don't know 3% (+1)

PA
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/10/Fox_October-17-20-2020_Complete_Pennsylvania_Topline_October-21-Release-002.pdf

1045 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Changes with September 20-23

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 45% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Other 1% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (no voters) (n/c)
Don't know 2% (n/c)

WI
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/10/Fox_October-17-20-2020_Complete_Wisconsin_Topline_October-21-Release.pdf

1037 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Changes with August 29-September 1

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (no voters) (n/c)
Don't know 4% (-1)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: October 21, 2020, 07:10:32 PM »
Looking at the Wisconsin crosstabs, White Non-College women are the ultimate swing demographic in Wisconsin. Walker won them by about 5 and Baldwin won them by about 8. Biden is currently up by 8!
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #36 on: October 21, 2020, 07:13:45 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 21, 2020, 07:10:32 PM
Looking at the Wisconsin crosstabs, White Non-College women are the ultimate swing demographic in Wisconsin. Walker won them by about 5 and Baldwin won them by about 8. Biden is currently up by 8!



Yeah Biden will win Wisconsin by about 4 IMO.
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n1240
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« Reply #37 on: October 22, 2020, 08:48:48 AM »
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Storr
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« Reply #38 on: October 22, 2020, 09:36:00 AM »
Quote from: n1240 on October 22, 2020, 08:48:48 AM


Trump's closing message: The polls are fake.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #39 on: October 22, 2020, 09:37:39 AM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 21, 2020, 06:13:08 PM
Trump approval:
MI: 44/55 (-11)
OH: 50/49 (+1)
PA: 48/52 (-4)
WI: 47/52 (-5)

Trump favorability:
MI: 43/56 (-13)
OH: 48/51 (-3)
PA: 46/54 (-8)
WI: 45/54 (-9)

Biden favorability:
MI: 53/45 (+8)
OH: 50/48 (+2)
PA: 54/45 (+9)
WI: 51/48 (+3)

This explains a lot... MI and OH approvals look correct, but PA/WI look like 4/5 pts too R compared to other Trump approvals we've seen in those states recently.
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Hammy
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« Reply #40 on: October 22, 2020, 04:39:06 PM »
Quote from: Storr on October 22, 2020, 09:36:00 AM
Quote from: n1240 on October 22, 2020, 08:48:48 AM


Trump's closing message: The polls are fake.

Even Trafalgar doesn't have him leading in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #41 on: October 22, 2020, 06:36:46 PM »
New Poll: Michigan President by Fox News on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 52%, R: 40%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #42 on: October 22, 2020, 06:37:54 PM »
New Poll: Ohio President by Fox News on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 45%, R: 48%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2020, 06:38:43 PM »
New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Fox News on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #44 on: October 22, 2020, 06:39:51 PM »
New Poll: Wisconsin President by Fox News on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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