PA - Civiqs/Dan Hopkins at Penn University (with previous results from the tracking poll): Biden +6%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:48:00 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  PA - Civiqs/Dan Hopkins at Penn University (with previous results from the tracking poll): Biden +6%
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: PA - Civiqs/Dan Hopkins at Penn University (with previous results from the tracking poll): Biden +6%  (Read 1196 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 22, 2020, 09:02:48 AM »
« edited: October 22, 2020, 09:07:29 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »


All polls are of adults.

February 27 - March 3
2462
MoE: 2.2%
Trump 48%
Biden 46%
Unsure 7%

March 14-18
1589
MoE: 2.7%
Trump 48% (n/c)
Biden 46% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (-1)

April 4-8
1912
MoE: 2.5%
Biden 47% (+1)
Trump 47% (-1)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

May 30 - June 2
2045
MoE: 2.4%
Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 46% (-1)
Unsure 5% (-1)

June 6-11
1221
MoE: 3.6%
Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Unsure 5% (n/c)

October 17-21
1577
MoE: 3%
Biden 52% (+3)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Unsure 2% (-3)
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2020, 09:03:53 AM »

Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2020, 09:04:07 AM »

Ah, so this is not really a current poll of all adults but just the same group over and over again to see how they're changing. So this particularly group went from Trump +2 to Biden +6. Wow.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2020, 09:05:47 AM »

Anywhere between Lean and Likely D.

Giving PA to Biden on 538's new tool increases his chances to be elected prez from 87% to 97%.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,251


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2020, 09:08:53 AM »

Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.

I actually agree that, less COVID, this election would be a horse race Smiley that was too close to call Smiley, although (since hope springs eternal) I might still think that Biden was slightly favored on an alternate universe's October 22, 2020 where that was the case.
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2020, 09:10:14 AM »

Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.

Trump had every opportunity to manage the "plague" responsibly and sensibly, and he didn't do that.

If he handled it like any number of other Governors did, he'd be cruising.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2020, 09:14:03 AM »

Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.

Not really, Trump's vote share doesn't move much here. If anything, it shows how efficiently Biden consolidated Democrats after the primary and independents over the Summer.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,362
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 09:25:42 AM »

Quote
Penn University

Must....not....correct....
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,251


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 09:29:49 AM »

Quote
Penn University

Must....not....correct....

Talkelections Dot Org Slash FORUM User Nathan Honesty Hours: I used to think UPenn and Penn State were the same place.
Logged
It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,946


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 09:30:33 AM »

Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.
Correction, his bad response and messaging regarding the virus.
Logged
compucomp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,572


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 09:30:39 AM »

Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.

Trump had every opportunity to manage the "plague" responsibly and sensibly, and he didn't do that.

If he handled it like any number of other Governors did, he'd be cruising.

He even had an example to follow, he just had to copy Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo actually was fairly unpopular and had an underwater approval rating in New York before the coronavirus pandemic (Link) and by May he was on pace to become Eternal God-Emperor of New York by popular acclamation.

The word was that Trump was watching Cuomo's daily briefings in March and April and trying to emulate them. Of course, this resulted in gems like "the virus will disappear by Easter" and "we should try injecting bleach to cure coronavirus".
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 10:09:51 AM »

Ah, so this is not really a current poll of all adults but just the same group over and over again to see how they're changing. So this particularly group went from Trump +2 to Biden +6. Wow.

At first I was concerned this was just a poll of adults, but the fact this is a panel poll gives it much more credence.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 05:46:28 PM »

Quote
Penn University

Must....not....correct....

Wow PQG, that Nittany Lion fighting Spirit of yours is impressive!
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,472
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2020, 05:48:58 PM »

Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.

Trump had every opportunity to manage the "plague" responsibly and sensibly, and he didn't do that.

If he handled it like any number of other Governors did, he'd be cruising.

It's fair to contrast the media environment each of those governors was in, given that so much of the efficacy of a given policy won't be known for months or years. If Trump had the media coverage Andrew Cuomo inexplicably gets, he would also be cruising no matter what course he took.

Donald Trump's ultimate mistake will be thinking he could ever have been a normal president maintaining a normal relationship with the press.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2020, 05:49:30 PM »

Pretty easy to see here how the Plague cost Trump the election.

Trump had every opportunity to manage the "plague" responsibly and sensibly, and he didn't do that.

If he handled it like any number of other Governors did, he'd be cruising.

It's fair to consider the media environment each of those governors was in, given that so much of the efficacy of a given policy won't be known for months or years. If Trump had the media coverage Andrew Cuomo inexplicably gets, he would also be cruising no matter what course he took.

Ah, so the media is responsible for Trump having s*** the bed in his response to covid. Thanks for clarifying.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,362
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 06:15:09 PM »

Quote
Penn University

Must....not....correct....

Wow PQG, that Nittany Lion fighting Spirit of yours is impressive!

Don't...Badger, just...stop.  
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.232 seconds with 15 queries.