IA-Emerson: Ernst +1

[S019]

Emerson is a bad firm and shouldn't be taken too seriously, but Sabato's move was clearly premature

I do not really see that 75% D Delegation holding. It may hold this year but not in 2022 midterms. And I say this as someone who is a bit skeptical that the senate will be 65 to 35 GOP and the house will be 400 to 135 GOP just because Biden is president.

Agreed, but Dems might keep one seat in 2022, if the commission makes a Des Moines centered seat, the other seat becomes an R leaning hourglass and then a tossup seat focused on Dubuque, with the current map, though yeah, IA is going 4-0 in 2022

[S019]

We also had several polls recently showing Greenfield in the lead.

This is why this place is f**king unbearable sometimes. You'd think no one here knows to actually interpret data and just comes in when they see a poll they like or don't like and acts like that's the only poll that is out there.

Or the dunks on Sabato, because of NYT/Siena that has Ernst ***+1*** and an **EMERSON** poll that has Ernst +1. Meanwhile, the rest of the most recent like 8 polls we've gotten show Greenfield in the lead. But nope, let's go off of Emerson!

IA polls have overestimated Democrats three cycles in a row (2014, 2016, and 2018), no reason to think that changes this time this time.