IA-Emerson: Ernst +1

[S019]

We also had several polls recently showing Greenfield in the lead.

This is why this place is f**king unbearable sometimes. You'd think no one here knows to actually interpret data and just comes in when they see a poll they like or don't like and acts like that's the only poll that is out there.

Or the dunks on Sabato, because of NYT/Siena that has Ernst ***+1*** and an **EMERSON** poll that has Ernst +1. Meanwhile, the rest of the most recent like 8 polls we've gotten show Greenfield in the lead. But nope, let's go off of Emerson!

IA polls have overestimated Democrats three cycles in a row (2014, 2016, and 2018), no reason to think that changes this time this time.

[GALeftist]

I was about to say, whenever Emerson has a result that seems ludicrous everyone's all "Memerson XDDDDD" but when they have a candidate up by 1 point suddenly they're the gold standard

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 19-21
435 likely voters
MoE: 4.7%

With leaners, it's Ernst +4%.

Ernst 51%
Greenfield 46%
Someone else 3%

[VAR]

With leaners, it's Ernst +4%.

So all three polls today are showing Ernst outrunning Trump? SOYBEAN BUMP

[Xing]

So if Greenfield does win will you all accept the results? Or will you all be like republicans when told to wear a mask and act like toddlers throwing temper tantrums?

Huh? Why would any Democrat here be unhappy with Greenfield winning? I was far from upset when I was wrong and Beshear won KY-GOV. If you mean Republican posters, I assume some will be unhappy if Ernst loses, but would probably be more unhappy about other results, since Ernst loses definitely means Republican lost the Senate, and probably have at most 48 seats, if not fewer.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

With leaners, it's Ernst +4%.

So all three polls today are showing Ernst outrunning Trump? SOYBEAN BUMP

The "soybean bump" was always overhyped but Monmouth doesn't show Ernst overperforming in terms of actual topline numbers, Emerson's quality is iffy and the one genuinely good poll (Siena/NYT with its typically high undecided %) doesn't counter all of the prior evidence suggesting Ernst is underperforming Trump. Could she be consolidating undecided voters? Very plausibly, yes, but the majority of other recent polls don't suggest this is happening just yet.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

See? It's Tilt R.

Tilt D —-> Tilt D

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Emerson College on 2020-10-21

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details