IA-Emerson: Ernst +1
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Author Topic: IA-Emerson: Ernst +1  (Read 1585 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: October 21, 2020, 02:10:52 PM »

46% Joni Ernst (R, inc.)
45% Theresa Greenfield (D)

PRES: Trump +2 (48-46)

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-biden
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 02:13:10 PM »

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic
Replaces North Carolina as the seat likeliest to be No. 50 for Democrats; the House state of play
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WD
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 02:14:41 PM »

lol Sabato
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VAR
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 02:16:15 PM »


Garcia is clearly favored to win re-election tho
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Gracile
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 02:16:31 PM »

Live look at Sabato's Crystal Ball.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 02:17:14 PM »

Do people realize that if Dems donít win the Senate, Biden is getting nothing done?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 02:17:32 PM »

Sabato is clearly wrong. But I still have this has Tilt D mostly because of Monmouth
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 02:24:47 PM »

Do people realize that if Dems donít win the Senate, Biden is getting nothing done?

A Democrat only losing a Senate race in IA by a narrow margin isnít exactly a good sign for Republicans' chances of holding the Senate majority. Despite assertions to the contrary by the Ďexpertsí, Democrats really do not need this race to flip the Senate.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 02:25:06 PM »

Do people realize that if Dems donít win the Senate, Biden is getting nothing done?

Nah, Republicans will just provide some nice, reasonable, moderate Purple heart Chex n Balances Purple heart to prevent Biden from being too ďsocialistĒ or whatever. After all, theyíve just such a nice job keeping Trump in check over the past four years...

Anyway, looks like Sabato really jumped the gun. Greenfield could still win, but it doesnít look like she got a ďsoybean bumpĒ...
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 02:29:18 PM »

Do people realize that if Dems donít win the Senate, Biden is getting nothing done?

D's have GA as a backup to NC and IA but the D's are depending on a big wave to get Heroes Act and Crt packing done

AOC said on Rachel Maddow that we are gonna get a Supermajority Senate since Trump pulled out of stimulus talks
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jimmie
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 02:44:32 PM »

We also had several polls recently showing Greenfield in the lead.

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GALeftist
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 03:10:58 PM »

Still Tilt D.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 03:18:06 PM »

Do people realize that if Dems donít win the Senate, Biden is getting nothing done?

Nah, Republicans will just provide some nice, reasonable, moderate Purple heart Chex n Balances Purple heart to prevent Biden from being too ďsocialistĒ or whatever.

Itís sad that some people actually believe this.
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Anxious Pessimist Doomer
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2020, 03:18:43 PM »

Nothing but bad news out of Iowa today.
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jimmie
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2020, 03:42:06 PM »

So if Greenfield does win will you all accept the results? Or will you all be like republicans when told to wear a mask and act like toddlers throwing temper tantrums?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2020, 03:49:57 PM »

So if Greenfield does win will you all accept the results? Or will you all be like republicans when told to wear a mask and act like toddlers throwing temper tantrums?

I donít think any Democrats here would be sad if Greenfield (a Democrat) won, but nice job arguing against arguments that no one actually makes, as you always do.

Thereís just a large cohort of my fellow trends disciples here who are trying, in vain, to get people to lower their expectations here again, because they are setting up to be burned by Iowa. Once again. Fools like Larry Sabato (who should know better) are feeding into this.
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jimmie
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 03:52:04 PM »

So if Greenfield does win will you all accept the results? Or will you all be like republicans when told to wear a mask and act like toddlers throwing temper tantrums?

I donít think any Democrats here would be sad if Greenfield (a Democrat) won, but nice job arguing against arguments that no one actually makes, as you always do.

Thereís just a large cohort of my fellow trends disciples here who are trying, in vain, to get people to lower their expectations here again, because they are setting up to be burned by Iowa. Once again. Fools like Larry Sabato (who should know better) are feeding into this.

Just give me credit that I am predicting she will be the only federal legislator from Iowa in January 2023 unless a really friendly Dem district is drawn. In fact I could see all Iowa Democrats losing in 2022 under Biden. Something that I wouldn't  necessarily predict for MN or MI.

I consider Iowa a GOP state I am just making a no toss up prediction that Greenfield will win and I have a right to change that before election day.
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jimmie
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2020, 03:56:00 PM »

I do not really see that 75% D Delegation holding. It may hold this year but not in 2022 midterms. And I say this as someone who is a bit skeptical that the senate will be 65 to 35 GOP and the house will be 400 to 135 GOP just because Biden is president.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2020, 03:59:19 PM »

I do not really see that 75% D Delegation holding. It may hold this year but not in 2022 midterms. And I say this as someone who is a bit skeptical that the senate will be 65 to 35 GOP and the house will be 400 to 135 GOP just because Biden is president.

Biden is scandaled but there is really no difference between Don Jr and Hunter, they both got money from Ukraine and Russia. The difference is Covid and the House, which starts impeachment proceedings are in D hands which won't dare to investigate Hunter.


Any lime he raised ,400 million, there is corruption
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jimmie
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2020, 03:59:39 PM »

I do not really see that 75% D Delegation holding. It may hold this year but not in 2022 midterms. And I say this as someone who is a bit skeptical that the senate will be 65 to 35 GOP and the house will be 400 to 135 GOP just because Biden is president.

I donít think any Democrats here would be sad if Greenfield (a Democrat) won, but nice job arguing against arguments that no one actually makes, as you always do.

Fine I will listen to you.

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S019
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2020, 04:01:11 PM »

Emerson is a bad firm and shouldn't be taken too seriously, but Sabato's move was clearly premature

I do not really see that 75% D Delegation holding. It may hold this year but not in 2022 midterms. And I say this as someone who is a bit skeptical that the senate will be 65 to 35 GOP and the house will be 400 to 135 GOP just because Biden is president.

Agreed, but Dems might keep one seat in 2022, if the commission makes a Des Moines centered seat, the other seat becomes an R leaning hourglass and then a tossup seat focused on Dubuque, with the current map, though yeah, IA is going 4-0 in 2022
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WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2020, 04:01:56 PM »

I do not really see that 75% D Delegation holding. It may hold this year but not in 2022 midterms. And I say this as someone who is a bit skeptical that the senate will be 65 to 35 GOP and the house will be 400 to 135 GOP just because Biden is president.

I donít think any Democrats here would be sad if Greenfield (a Democrat) won, but nice job arguing against arguments that no one actually makes, as you always do.

Fine I will listen to you.



Soon you will learn the ways of the trends, my friend.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2020, 04:03:28 PM »

See? It's Tilt R.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2020, 04:04:06 PM »

We also had several polls recently showing Greenfield in the lead.



This is why this place is f**king unbearable sometimes. You'd think no one here knows to actually interpret data and just comes in when they see a poll they like or don't like and acts like that's the only poll that is out there.

Or the dunks on Sabato, because of NYT/Siena that has Ernst ***+1*** and an **EMERSON** poll that has Ernst +1. Meanwhile, the rest of the most recent like 8 polls we've gotten show Greenfield in the lead. But nope, let's go off of Emerson!
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jimmie
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2020, 04:04:18 PM »

I do not really see that 75% D Delegation holding. It may hold this year but not in 2022 midterms. And I say this as someone who is a bit skeptical that the senate will be 65 to 35 GOP and the house will be 400 to 135 GOP just because Biden is president.

I donít think any Democrats here would be sad if Greenfield (a Democrat) won, but nice job arguing against arguments that no one actually makes, as you always do.

Fine I will listen to you.



Soon you will learn the ways of the trends, my friend.

Holy christ.. what the ?? Most of my predictions follow present trends!

The only reason Biden will win MN/MI/PA is because of suburbs. Biden wont even approach Obama 2012 margins in rural areas.

And I predicted less than two hours ago that Texas would be a split state for Senate (R) and President (D)
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