Emerson-IA Trump+2
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Author Topic: Emerson-IA Trump+2  (Read 1233 times)
SaneDemocrat
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« on: October 21, 2020, 02:04:55 PM »

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-biden
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exopolitician
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 02:06:53 PM »

Emerson coming in with the wet blanket.
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Horus
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 02:10:06 PM »

Looks about right, Iowa will stay Republican but it's gonna be a lot closer than many expected just a month ago.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 02:11:25 PM »

If Trump and Ernst win, Dems should just write this state off once and for all. This environment is about as good as it gets for Dems, and if they can't win it now, they won't win it barring a blue moon event.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 02:11:56 PM »

48-48 with leaners.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 02:12:26 PM »

MTurkerson
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 02:13:56 PM »

I don't care if it's Trump +2 or Biden +2. Memerson is Memerson.
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kireev
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 02:14:19 PM »

Among those already voted Biden is 70.8%, Trump 27.5%
But Greenfield leads Ernst 66.3% to 29.1%

That's a bad sign for Greenfield that she is running behind Biden. But Biden is doing very well relative to the party registration of those who have already voted (DEM 52.6%, REP 30.3%, No Party 16.7% as of today).
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 02:14:26 PM »

Um, isn't 6% a bit large MoE?
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mijan
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 02:18:18 PM »

Looks about right, Iowa will stay Republican but it's gonna be a lot closer than many expected just a month ago.
I disagree. The early voting was a disaster for GOP in IA,  as they are 136 k votes behind.
I think Biden will win IA by 5.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 02:23:25 PM »

Mturk pollster
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mijan
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 02:26:42 PM »

Among those already voted Biden is 70.8%, Trump 27.5%
But Greenfield leads Ernst 66.3% to 29.1%

That's a bad sign for Greenfield that she is running behind Biden. But Biden is doing very well relative to the party registration of those who have already voted (DEM 52.6%, REP 30.3%, No Party 16.7% as of today).
608 k people voted so far which is 40% of 2016 turnout. If Biden is winning early vote that large then it is impossible for Trump to get a lead.
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kireev
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 02:37:10 PM »

Among those already voted Biden is 70.8%, Trump 27.5%
But Greenfield leads Ernst 66.3% to 29.1%

That's a bad sign for Greenfield that she is running behind Biden. But Biden is doing very well relative to the party registration of those who have already voted (DEM 52.6%, REP 30.3%, No Party 16.7% as of today).
608 k people voted so far which is 40% of 2016 turnout. If Biden is winning early vote that large then it is impossible for Trump to get a lead.

Well, mathematically it's possible. Trump just needs a really high turnout among Reps on the election day. But in 2016 the REP turnout in IA was several points higher that the DEM turnout. This year the Republicans may only hope that their turnout will be the same as the DEM turnout.
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mijan
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2020, 03:04:08 PM »

Among those already voted Biden is 70.8%, Trump 27.5%
But Greenfield leads Ernst 66.3% to 29.1%

That's a bad sign for Greenfield that she is running behind Biden. But Biden is doing very well relative to the party registration of those who have already voted (DEM 52.6%, REP 30.3%, No Party 16.7% as of today).
608 k people voted so far which is 40% of 2016 turnout. If Biden is winning early vote that large then it is impossible for Trump to get a lead.

Well, mathematically it's possible. Trump just needs a really high turnout among Reps on the election day. But in 2016 the REP turnout in IA was several points higher that the DEM turnout. This year the Republicans may only hope that their turnout will be the same as the DEM turnout.
You are right. GOP will be haviely dependent on very high turnout on Nov 3
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Bumaye
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2020, 03:27:14 PM »

If Trump and Ernst win, Dems should just write this state off once and for all. This environment is about as good as it gets for Dems, and if they can't win it now, they won't win it barring a blue moon event.

You could always pander to disenfranchised voters, energize a radicalizing youth and stand with workers and farmers if the same old-same old Status Quo with rainbow flags and maybe some health care doesn’t work out anymore.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2020, 03:53:39 PM »

Among those already voted Biden is 70.8%, Trump 27.5%
But Greenfield leads Ernst 66.3% to 29.1%

That's a bad sign for Greenfield that she is running behind Biden. But Biden is doing very well relative to the party registration of those who have already voted (DEM 52.6%, REP 30.3%, No Party 16.7% as of today).

Greenfield and Ernst are both running behind Biden and Trump here.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 05:49:33 PM »

October 19-21
435 likely voters
MoE: 4.7%

With leaners, it's a perfect tie (although one leaner appears to be left unallocated).

Biden 48%
Trump 48%
Someone else 4%
Undecided 0% (but one voter)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 07:23:39 PM »

New Poll: Iowa President by Emerson College on 2020-10-21

Summary: D: 48%, R: 48%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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