AK-PPP: Trump +5
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  AK-PPP: Trump +5
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Author Topic: AK-PPP: Trump +5  (Read 1258 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 21, 2020, 01:51:00 PM »

Trump 50%
Biden 45%

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Health-Care-Could-Be-Deciding-Factor-in-Close-Alaska-Senate-Race.pdf
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 01:52:38 PM »

Trump will prolly win AK (though there is a small but not unrealistic chance Biden wins). Still, this suggests a 10% shift from 2016 which isn't good, and it's just one more state (And senate seat) they need to worry about; even if we don't win it, it takes away money from a more competative state.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 01:54:23 PM »

How do Alaska Natives vote?
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 02:08:44 PM »


Historically strongly Democratic (except Murkowski), very low turnout. I expect Gross and Biden to sweep the (extra)rurals.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 02:10:51 PM »


Historically strongly Democratic (except Murkowski), very low turnout. I expect Gross and Biden to sweep the (extra)rurals.

Don Young also gets a lot of crossover support from them.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 02:13:37 PM »


Historically strongly Democratic (except Murkowski), very low turnout. I expect Gross and Biden to sweep the (extra)rurals.

Don Young also gets a lot of crossover support from them.

Might be fair to say there is a pro-incumbent streak, which would temper expectations for Gross. I'm not familiar enough with Sullivan's record on native issues to say strongly.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 03:48:16 PM »


Historically strongly Democratic (except Murkowski), very low turnout. I expect Gross and Biden to sweep the (extra)rurals.

Don Young also gets a lot of crossover support from them.

Might be fair to say there is a pro-incumbent streak, which would temper expectations for Gross. I'm not familiar enough with Sullivan's record on native issues to say strongly.

I would suspect that it has more to do with the longevity of Young and the Murkowskis. Senator Lisa Murkowski herself is probably also helped by having a more legitimate claim to being a moderate Republican.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 05:52:19 PM »

For Protect Our Care (D)
October 19-20
800 voters
MoE: 3.5%
First set of changes with independent July 7-8 poll and second with July 23-24 poll for AFSCME (D)

Trump 50% (+2, n/c)
Biden 45% (n/c, +1)
Not sure 5% (-1, -1)
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 07:31:16 PM »

Seems accurate.

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 08:12:11 PM »

It appears that Republicans have a very solid floor here but may still yield an embarrassing result.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 10:28:31 PM »

Since 2000, Alaska has swung an average of 1 point per year to the Democrats, so not too surprising that Democrats could get within single digits after stalling out in 2016.

Year   Margin   Swing
2004   25.55   5.40
2008   21.53   4.02
2012   13.99   7.54
2016   14.73   0.74
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 11:25:02 PM »


Too diverse a group of people to lump into a group as a cultural entity. Still, I can't imagine them as anything but strongly D. 
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 07:04:22 PM »

New Poll: Alaska President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 45%, R: 50%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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