AK-PPP: Trump +5
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 31, 2023, 02:29:55 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  AK-PPP: Trump +5
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: AK-PPP: Trump +5  (Read 1179 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,768
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 21, 2020, 01:51:00 PM »

Trump 50%
Biden 45%

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Health-Care-Could-Be-Deciding-Factor-in-Close-Alaska-Senate-Race.pdf
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 01:52:38 PM »

Trump will prolly win AK (though there is a small but not unrealistic chance Biden wins). Still, this suggests a 10% shift from 2016 which isn't good, and it's just one more state (And senate seat) they need to worry about; even if we don't win it, it takes away money from a more competative state.
Logged
ηєω яσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,126
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 01:54:23 PM »

How do Alaska Natives vote?
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,742
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 02:08:44 PM »


Historically strongly Democratic (except Murkowski), very low turnout. I expect Gross and Biden to sweep the (extra)rurals.
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,633
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 02:10:51 PM »


Historically strongly Democratic (except Murkowski), very low turnout. I expect Gross and Biden to sweep the (extra)rurals.

Don Young also gets a lot of crossover support from them.
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,742
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 02:13:37 PM »


Historically strongly Democratic (except Murkowski), very low turnout. I expect Gross and Biden to sweep the (extra)rurals.

Don Young also gets a lot of crossover support from them.

Might be fair to say there is a pro-incumbent streak, which would temper expectations for Gross. I'm not familiar enough with Sullivan's record on native issues to say strongly.
Logged
Your False god Won't Save You
DaleCooper
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,204


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 03:48:16 PM »


Historically strongly Democratic (except Murkowski), very low turnout. I expect Gross and Biden to sweep the (extra)rurals.

Don Young also gets a lot of crossover support from them.

Might be fair to say there is a pro-incumbent streak, which would temper expectations for Gross. I'm not familiar enough with Sullivan's record on native issues to say strongly.

I would suspect that it has more to do with the longevity of Young and the Murkowskis. Senator Lisa Murkowski herself is probably also helped by having a more legitimate claim to being a moderate Republican.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,212


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 05:52:19 PM »

For Protect Our Care (D)
October 19-20
800 voters
MoE: 3.5%
First set of changes with independent July 7-8 poll and second with July 23-24 poll for AFSCME (D)

Trump 50% (+2, n/c)
Biden 45% (n/c, +1)
Not sure 5% (-1, -1)
Logged
TheLaRocca
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 499
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 07:31:16 PM »

Seems accurate.

Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,131
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 08:12:11 PM »

It appears that Republicans have a very solid floor here but may still yield an embarrassing result.
Logged
Governor Griff (LAB-SL)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,913
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 10:28:31 PM »

Since 2000, Alaska has swung an average of 1 point per year to the Democrats, so not too surprising that Democrats could get within single digits after stalling out in 2016.

Year   Margin   Swing
2004   25.55   5.40
2008   21.53   4.02
2012   13.99   7.54
2016   14.73   0.74
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,202
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 11:25:02 PM »


Too diverse a group of people to lump into a group as a cultural entity. Still, I can't imagine them as anything but strongly D. 
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,013


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 07:04:22 PM »

New Poll: Alaska President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 45%, R: 50%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.042 seconds with 13 queries.