IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%

[WD]

soybean bump

This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

You’re right, it’s seat 50 or 51.

More like seat 53. MT and GA will flip first.

[WD]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

[WD]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

And then she loses by 10-11 points.