IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn if Siena. I swear if we lose the senate after a D + 2 year and 2 wave years...

[ProgressiveModerate]

soybean bump

This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

You’re right, it’s seat 50 or 51.

More like seat 53. MT and GA will flip first.

False

Only time will tell. Really depends upon the national environment and how much partisanship wins out

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn if Siena. I swear if we lose the senate after a D + 2 year and 2 wave years...

This race won't be close to the tipping point, NC will probably be the tipping point, though GA, ME, and MT are also possibilities.

Yeah that would be my guess too, but I always worry that somehow NC, MI, or ME suprize us.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn if Siena. I swear if we lose the senate after a D + 2 year and 2 wave years...

This race won't be close to the tipping point, NC will probably be the tipping point, though GA, ME, and MT are also possibilities.

Yeah that would be my guess too, but I always worry that somehow NC, MI, or ME suprize us.

You can go phone bank for Cunningham or Gideon if you’re that anxious.

Is there anything you can think of that I could do without my parents knowing? I really want to help out but don't want them to get suspicious with me calling a bunch of people or getting texts from strangers. I was able to convince my father to give money to Gideon and Harrison though.