I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.
Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...
"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"
- Analysis by Chris Cillizza
"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"
- Analysis by Larry Sabato
And then she loses by 10-11 points.
She’d be an idiot to run in a Biden midterm.
In a universe where Trump wins reelection, I think she would be a good candidate to run for Senate in a six-year itch scenario (pulling off a fluke victory in an R-trending state that isn't entirely gone but then losing in 2028 by a substantial margin/the partisan lean of the state in a presidential year winning out, much like Cory Gardner in 2014/2020). I wonder if she had that in mind when passing on a Senate run this year.