IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The voters are realizing that Biden will win and they are worried about what complete Democratic control would bring, so they are making sure the Senate serves as a check on Biden.

Dems have AZ, CO, ME and GA R and S as backups to IA and NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not confident about this race, though I'd still rate it a Toss-Up. Hopefully we get another Selzer poll soon.

You think we are dealing with Rubio, Jeb or Walker, Biden is dealing with Trump here, and he wasn't a real politician. In my home turf of IN , as Illinoians, whom went to IN to gamble during 2008, Trump casinos went bankrupt and they changed the name.  That's why he went on Raw with Vince Mcmahon to get paid, 2010, he went insolvent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato's Crystal Ball just moved this to Lean D.

Yeah, they are putting their reputations on the line here. Looks like they seriously jumped the gun on that silly move.

And they'll look stupid if they immediately move it back to Toss-Up, so they're probably stuck with their rating. As I've said, if IA-SEN actually does somehow vote left of NC-SEN, I'll bow down to Larry Sabato, God among Prognosticators.

Biden has been ahead in IA in most polls due to fact our Congressial districts aren't R leaning, they are D leaning. Rs before Covid hit were expected to sweep all four districts

This same poll has Biden plus 3 in IA